18z ETA!!

Cheesy_Poofs · #1 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:37 pm

All we need is for it to trend a little fruther north...Bob Ryan a local DC met. mentioned thursday will be cloudy, and that there will be a storm, but he thinks it will stay south. ( Mainly NC ) Time will tell...hopefully the trend countiues a little bit more north!

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:41 pm

Cheesy_Poofs wrote:

All we need is for it to trend a little fruther north...Bob Ryan a local DC met. mentioned thursday will be cloudy, and that there will be a storm, but he thinks it will stay south. ( Mainly NC ) Time will tell...hopefully the trend countiues a little bit more north!

WINTER JEBWALK WATCH is now in effect for all of Virginia.

A Winter Jebwalk Watch means winter jebwalk conditions could verify within 72 hours. A Warning will be issued as we draw closer to the event in question.

-Jeb

#3 Postby **FLguy** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:49 pm

Cheesy_Poofs wrote:

All we need is for it to trend a little fruther north...Bob Ryan a local DC met. mentioned thursday will be cloudy, and that there will be a storm, but he thinks it will stay south. ( Mainly NC ) Time will tell...hopefully the trend countiues a little bit more north!

bob ryan es como aburrido como un mono's a$$

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:55 pm

bob ryan es como aburrido como un mono's a$$

I don't speak spanish, but I get the jist of the message ... LOL ... (Now I know what you mean by spanish refresher)...

#5 Postby **FLguy** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:56 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
bob ryan es como aburrido como un mono's a$$

I don't speak spanish, but I get the jist of the message ... LOL ... (Now I know what you mean by spanish refresher)...

i probably need a refresher myself, LOL :lol:

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:08 pm

You'd think you'd know Spanish by now living in FL near all those Spanish speaking folks!!

But we'd prefer Standard English!! Especially if you're discussing my precious snow!!!

Are we gonna get some snow on VA? Or should I cancel my WINTER JEBWALK WATCH lol?

-Jeb

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:22 pm

The GFS says don't hold your breath ... slides the best moisture and UVV's well south ... and keeps the heaviest QPF's well south of VA...

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:30 pm

That just breaks my heart.........into a million pieces.

No winter jebwalk here...........This 47-degree weather is so darned hot!! It's going to be too warm for two coats!! Drats!!

-Jeb

Colin · #9 Postby **Colin** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:51 pm

Don't give up yet Jeb...

#10 Postby **FLguy** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 5:55 pm

its the 18z runs, i would not put much stock in either.

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 6:03 pm

FLguy wrote:its the 18z runs, i would not put much stock in either.

I generally don't either...

rainstorm · #12 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 6:22 pm

6-12 for se va!

Cheesy_Poofs · #13 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 7:48 pm

This is Quincy's ( Woodstockwx, from WWBB ) first call map....I think it may be a TAD bit to early for one...but here is his anyway's...

#14 Postby **FLguy** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 7:55 pm

if he is doing this based ONLY on the 18z ETA, he will bust unless the trend further north continues in the next several runs. if the 0z ETA continues to be further north and wetter, with the GFS trending in that direction, then there may be something to it. but for now, i do agree with you jassi, it is much too early for a first call. especially given the vast differences in ETA and GFS QPF as well as potentially unstable trends in the data (ala ... 18z ETA)

i have been solidly involved in my tropical outlook (to be released MAR 1 ---right here at s2k) what i have been Neglecting the winter. my apologies.

Cheesy_Poofs · #15 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:08 pm

FLguy- Here is what WoodstockWX said:

" The "analog" that my prelim maps are usually too far south came into play once again, onyl difference is, I usually end up being too wet with the prelim call, but definitely too dry this time.

My baby, lmao, has been the ETA this year, which has been extended to 84 hours...sometimes horrid after 60hrs, but other times it picks up on trends.

No doubt it's probably a little too wet, as I don't think the TN and AL/GA borders areas will see 0.85 to 1.05 inches of precipitation in the form of all or mostly snow.

Highest totals in the 4 to 7 inch zone will be in the mountains, and yes, the axis of heaviest snow isn't quite straight down the apps, but this isn't a cad event, as parts of N AL/N GA will also see SOME snows...I THINK."

#16 Postby **FLguy** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:34 pm

Cheesy_Poofs wrote:FLguy- Here is what WoodstockWX said:

" The "analog" that my prelim maps are usually too far south came into play once again, onyl difference is, I usually end up being too wet with the prelim call, but definitely too dry this time.

My baby, lmao, has been the ETA this year, which has been extended to 84 hours...sometimes horrid after 60hrs, but other times it picks up on trends.

No doubt it's probably a little too wet, as I don't think the TN and AL/GA borders areas will see 0.85 to 1.05 inches of precipitation in the form of all or mostly snow.

Highest totals in the 4 to 7 inch zone will be in the mountains, and yes, the axis of heaviest snow isn't quite straight down the apps, but this isn't a cad event, as parts of N AL/N GA will also see SOME snows...I THINK."

i still think its too early for a first call no matter how you look at it. and the ETA (much les the GFS) 18z runs are too unstable IMO for a first call map. he should at least wait for another two complete cycles (0z and 12z) before issuing the map. that would take us to right around this time tomorrow. 24 hours and two complete model cycles can make a big difference in forecast skill.

Kelly · #17 Postby **Kelly** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 11:01 pm

FLguy wrote:
Cheesy_Poofs wrote:FLguy- Here is what WoodstockWX said:

" The "analog" that my prelim maps are usually too far south came into play once again, onyl difference is, I usually end up being too wet with the prelim call, but definitely too dry this time.

My baby, lmao, has been the ETA this year, which has been extended to 84 hours...sometimes horrid after 60hrs, but other times it picks up on trends.

No doubt it's probably a little too wet, as I don't think the TN and AL/GA borders areas will see 0.85 to 1.05 inches of precipitation in the form of all or mostly snow.

Highest totals in the 4 to 7 inch zone will be in the mountains, and yes, the axis of heaviest snow isn't quite straight down the apps, but this isn't a cad event, as parts of N AL/N GA will also see SOME snows...I THINK."

i still think its too early for a first call no matter how you look at it. and the ETA (much les the GFS) 18z runs are too unstable IMO for a first call map. he should at least wait for another two complete cycles (0z and 12z) before issuing the map. that would take us to right around this time tomorrow. 24 hours and two complete model cycles can make a big difference in forecast skill.

0z ETA shifted the heaviest precipitation back south again,

Kelly · #18 Postby **Kelly** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 11:03 pm

And the GFS is still pretty supressed. Looks like FLguy was right. :wink:

Kelly · #19 Postby **Kelly** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 11:05 pm

the GFS actually comes close to giving me some good rain, lol

Stormsfury · #20 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 11:08 pm

And the 18z ETA had a definite hiccup ... (seems like a lot of 18z runs do ... whether it be the GFS or the ETA)...

SF

18z ETA!!

18z ETA!!

Re: 18z ETA!!

Re: 18z ETA!!

Who is online