Snow This Thursday/Friday

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Snow This Thursday/Friday

#1 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 09, 2004 7:16 pm

I hear that there could be a light snow event for those dates above and then possible a repeat of the PD Storm last February.
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Feb 09, 2004 7:19 pm

THe first event slides well south of NJ, and as for PD III ... don't bet on it ... the general threat timeframe is towards the end of next week ...
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Re: Snow This Thursday/Friday

#3 Postby FLguy » Mon Feb 09, 2004 7:34 pm

1evans wrote:I hear that there could be a light snow event for those dates above and then possible a repeat of the PD Storm last February.


no me digas!! Crees que?
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#4 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:08 pm

Maybe in March........ A MECS like 1960, Dumped over 18 inches in N NJ.
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#5 Postby FLguy » Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:12 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:Maybe in March........ A MECS like 1960, Dumped over 18 inches in N NJ.


si
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Re: Snow This Thursday/Friday

#6 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:17 pm

FLguy wrote:
1evans wrote:I hear that there could be a light snow event for those dates above and then possible a repeat of the PD Storm last February.


no me digas!! Crees que?



No speak Spanish, English please.
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#7 Postby FLguy » Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:23 pm

you MAY be correct about the light snow event this week, but i doubt we will see a repeat of presidents day 03 around the same time this year.

your "big one" will wait until the first or second week of march. i dont know how many times i have to explain this to you
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#8 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:40 pm

FLguy, Next weekend, Bone Chilling Arctic Air Returns........... The GFS is Nuts! ( Dip Below Zero, Once again?) is that possible?


Also, -47C In Northern Canada -52F!!!!
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#9 Postby FLguy » Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:41 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:FLguy, Next weekend, Bone Chilling Arctic Air Returns........... The GFS is Nuts! ( Dip Below Zero, Once again?) is that possible?


Also, -47C In Northern Canada -52F!!!!


show me, i havent had a chance to look at the GFS in several days.
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#10 Postby Kelly » Mon Feb 09, 2004 9:40 pm

FLguy wrote:
Chris the Weather Man wrote:FLguy, Next weekend, Bone Chilling Arctic Air Returns........... The GFS is Nuts! ( Dip Below Zero, Once again?) is that possible?


Also, -47C In Northern Canada -52F!!!!


show me, i havent had a chance to look at the GFS in several days.


Don't worry, your not missing anything special. lol :wink:
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#11 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Mon Feb 09, 2004 9:49 pm

Still, COLD!
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#12 Postby Kelly » Mon Feb 09, 2004 9:54 pm

the reason why its so cold is because the polar vortex is sitting just north of the great lakes.

Image

and the vortex its self is pretty strong. heightrs are down to 486 dm. thats like what we saw in january.

Image

-40C isotherm just north of lake superior.
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#13 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Mon Feb 09, 2004 9:55 pm

Oh, Crap, I was lookin at yesterday's Run.......
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#14 Postby Kelly » Mon Feb 09, 2004 9:57 pm

but i dont think with that in place there you are going to get a major winter storm across the mid atlantic and northeast. correct me if im wrong, but if im not mistaken the jet strengthens underneath and the flow is too fast to get phasing. or if the shortwave is too close to the vortex, the jet will shear it apart.
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#15 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Feb 09, 2004 10:00 pm

Kelly wrote:but i dont think with that in place there you are going to get a major winter storm across the mid atlantic and northeast. correct me if im wrong, but if im not mistaken the jet strengthens underneath and the flow is too fast to get phasing. or if the shortwave is too close to the vortex, the jet will shear it apart.


Bingo ... the key here is what the PV does AFTER it makes its swing through the NE ... does the PV become quite a large 50/50 low and will there be a block to hold it in place ... if so, LOOK OUT...

SF
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#16 Postby Kelly » Mon Feb 09, 2004 10:04 pm

but if its near newfoundland, any system across the east would weaken once it gets close to the broad confluent flow , anyway. so it has to be further north or out of the picture right?
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#17 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Mon Feb 09, 2004 10:07 pm

Let it Become a 50/50 low! ( lol I sound like Jeb)
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#18 Postby Kelly » Mon Feb 09, 2004 10:09 pm

what i think is even bigger to watch is what happens to that energy digging into the pacific northwest. because, look at what the GFS does with it by 156 hours

Image

closed low across the southwest with the vortex getting out of the picture. that might be something to watch, at least somebody else thinks it is :wink:
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#19 Postby Kelly » Mon Feb 09, 2004 10:12 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:Let it Become a 50/50 low! ( lol I sound like Jeb)


i dont know if thats such a good thing, chris.
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#20 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Mon Feb 09, 2004 10:13 pm

Kelly wrote:
Chris the Weather Man wrote:Let it Become a 50/50 low! ( lol I sound like Jeb)


i dont know if thats such a good thing, chris.


Yes, He Is crazy, with snow, and cold......... But I for, one, Would love to see another March 1993 Blizzard.... or PD2...
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