February 6-8: Likely Miss for East Coast's Big Cities

[Anonymous]

WRONG --- Miller B SECS/MECS events dont always screw the PHL-DCA corridor. let me ask you something, PDS2 was a miller B, did you folks in DCA get screwed, or how about those of your in Baltimore???

PDSII gave us only 12 inches snow, then from 6pm to 2am of Sunday Feb 16 2003 we got mod to heavy sleet which added 4 inches of sleet to 12 inches of snow. Not exactly a Winter Screw Job, but folks all around us got 25 inches of snow because they did not get all that sleet.


-Jeb

First of all, I'm surprised to hear you only got 12 inches... aren't you in southeastern Fairfax county? I thought most of the significant sleet was down from Fredericksburg south. I measured 21 inches on the morning of Feb 17th at my house in eastern Loudoun Co., but that was after plenty of compaction from a period of heavy sleet overnight (I would've been awake through the whole storm to measure multiple times had I not been sick as a dog -- heh, just figures the one time I've had the flu over the past 3 years is during the only MECS I'll probably ever experience).

As far as the Miller B screw job thing, I think the classic way you get screwed by those systems is ala DEC 30 2000 where you are left high and dry due to a sharp cutoff on the southwest edge of the precip... even if you did get screwed by mixing with sleet with PDS2, it wasn't unique to Miller B systems.

I am located in Dale City/Woodbridge in eastern Prince William County on the west side of I-95 about 5 miles from the Potomac River.

Yeah PDS2 was a nice storm with 12 inches but unfortunately we changed to heavy, heavy sleet at 6pm on Feb 16 and the heavy sleet continued unabated through 2 am the next morning. If it had stayed all snow, we'd have seen 2 feet of snow. Still it was a nice storm for us.


-Jeb

[donsutherland1]

Later today, or tomorrow morning, I'll clean up the mess that this forecast created. Suffice it to say, the trash of a large number of busts is widespread and cleaning up will be challenging to say the least.

[Chris the Weather Man]

March........ We need to make up for the March 2001 bust!

[Cheesy_Poofs]

WRONG --- Miller B SECS/MECS events dont always screw the PHL-DCA corridor. let me ask you something, PDS2 was a miller B, did you folks in DCA get screwed, or how about those of your in Baltimore???

PDSII gave us only 12 inches snow, then from 6pm to 2am of Sunday Feb 16 2003 we got mod to heavy sleet which added 4 inches of sleet to 12 inches of snow. Not exactly a Winter Screw Job, but folks all around us got 25 inches of snow because they did not get all that sleet.


-Jeb

First of all, I'm surprised to hear you only got 12 inches... aren't you in southeastern Fairfax county? I thought most of the significant sleet was down from Fredericksburg south. I measured 21 inches on the morning of Feb 17th at my house in eastern Loudoun Co., but that was after plenty of compaction from a period of heavy sleet overnight (I would've been awake through the whole storm to measure multiple times had I not been sick as a dog -- heh, just figures the one time I've had the flu over the past 3 years is during the only MECS I'll probably ever experience).

As far as the Miller B screw job thing, I think the classic way you get screwed by those systems is ala DEC 30 2000 where you are left high and dry due to a sharp cutoff on the southwest edge of the precip... even if you did get screwed by mixing with sleet with PDS2, it wasn't unique to Miller B systems.

I am located in Dale City/Woodbridge in eastern Prince William County on the west side of I-95 about 5 miles from the Potomac River.

Yeah PDS2 was a nice storm with 12 inches but unfortunately we changed to heavy, heavy sleet at 6pm on Feb 16 and the heavy sleet continued unabated through 2 am the next morning. If it had stayed all snow, we'd have seen 2 feet of snow. Still it was a nice storm for us.


-Jeb

There was a wide range of totals in Prince William County...some people got 9" of snow, others got 16" of snow, and others got 18-24" of snow...here's the snowfall total map from the NWS...

[donsutherland1]

Verification of my final forecast on the 2/6-7 storm:

<b>Snowfall:</b>

Final Forecast:
Albany: 4"-7"
Allentown: 3"-5"
Boston: 4"-10"
Morristown: 3"-5"
New York City: 2"-5"
Philadelphia: 2" or less
Providence: 4"-8"
Washington, DC: Little or no accumulation

Final Totals:
Albany: 2.0" (Bust: 2.0" below the range)
Allentown: 0.4" (Bust: 2.6" below the range)
Boston: 2.4" (Bust: 1.6" below the range)
Morristown: 0.4" (Bust: 2.6" below the range)
New York City: 0.7" (Bust: 1.3" below the range)
Philadelphia: 0.1"
Providence: 1.6" (Bust: 2.4" below the range)
Washington, DC: Trace

<b>Precipitation:</b>

I had anticipated that the total precipitation would come to 1.25"-2.50" in these cities. The totals were:

Albany: 0.51" (Bust)
Allentown: 1.74"
Boston: 1.00" (Bust)
Morristown: 1.93"
New York City: 1.63"
Philadelphia: 1.72"
Providence: 1.34"
Washington, DC: 1.60"

What happened was that the warm air advection was stronger and faster than I had anticipated. Overall, ideas on precipitation were all right for the most part. Unfortunately, it appears that I relied on the actual and forecast soundings to a greater extent than should have been the case, which would have allowed for greater snowfall.

In a similar future case, where precipitation appears to be falling more heavily at the onset of the storm (as I had noted earlier), rather than concluding that this could suggest more snowfall ahead of the arrival of the warmer air (I had relied on the soundings/forecast soundings), I'll watch both actual conditions where the precipitation is falling and advancing to a greater extent. Early evening radar had shown a rapid changeover in such cities as Washington and Baltimore--faster than the forecast soundings had suggested--and this was an important clue that I had overlooked. All said, the forecast soundings were somewhat behind the curve as the storm moved into the region. Nevertheless, it was my error to have placed greater reliance on them than ultimately proved warranted.

In short, the snowfall forecast--to borrow a word from the archives of Sudbury, MA's early weather records--proved to be the "terriblest" bust.

[JCT777]

Don - don't worry about it. It was a very difficult storm to nail in terms of total snow and ice.

[Stephanie]

The precipitation was almost dead-on Don! You were just alittle too far north with the totals.