I-95 Winter Over (Richmond,Fredericksburg,DC,BWI)

[FLguy]

I think one of the reasons why some some are frustreated this year as you are as well.because of how great last winter was.But in realtey this winter has it been really all that bad if you look at the big picture of things.You have to remember that no two winters are ever alike.Last year parts of the middle Alantic and Northeast saw over 50 seasonal snow fall.Which is a historeck winter.In many places broke records of the snowest winter ever. This winter the storey has not so much been snow as much as the cold.And the cold to be honest has made this winter just as hostorect.As we have it really seen a winter where we had cold as cold as it was in Januarey in at least 10 years and some records going back to the late 18 hunders as Don messaged. About Va missing the snow.There has been a lot of possableys this winter.But those things do happen.Where some one will always gets more then the other state.So far the biggest snow winners have been in the Northeast.BUT you have to consider the fact where the storms have formed.The big coasters have form just a bit to late for Va and parts of Md to get big storms.But have been perfect for most of the Northeast.However do not lose hope and saying winter over and that you will not get any more snow chances.Because I diffentey see major chances of it coming late febuarey-March with a possable historect Early March storm.With QBO changeing to west.Negative NAO 50/50 is classest pattern for something big in this pattern.And imo it would be a great way to end winter to have it go out with a bang.Its been a while since we seen a very cold and or snowey March and this may be the year.So we will see.One more point these warm periods jeb are very much normal.Even the most coldest and snowest winter like 1996 and last year saw a few mailder periolds but as Don clarefide it does not mean at all that winter is over.

havent I been discussing the potential for a historic march nor'easter since early january.

[donsutherland1]

FLguy,

You asked, "havent I been discussing the potential for a historic march nor'easter since early january."

Absolutely!

[Anonymous]

This thread was started on Feb. 6th, and I stated that no major snowstorms would effect the I-95 area from Richmond to BWI the rest of this winter. A major storm would be classified as at least 8 inches.

By the response many disagree with me and I respect that.

It would be nice if others would respectfully disagree, instead of calling weather enthusiast, like myself, an idiot.

So far the prediction is holding up just fine, let's see if it plays out.

[Anonymous]

Flguy...

Next week looks uneventful as well for these areas

Have a nice day

[JCT777]

Pienso que el resto de este invierno producirá uno tempestad de la nieve de 8 pulgadas o más para Washington DC y Baltimore.

The preceeding sentence was brought to you by FreeTranslation.com

[FLguy]

Pienso que el resto de este invierno producirá uno tempestad de la nieve de 8 pulgadas o más para Washington DC y Baltimore.

The preceeding sentence was brought to you by FreeTranslation.com

john --- agreed 1000% !!

[Anonymous]

Adios Amigos

[FLguy]

Adios Amigos

tu tiene un gran dia tambien mi amigo!!

[you have a great day too my friend]!!

[Anonymous]

¡Las necesidades de IFLguy llegan a ser Gobernadores de Virginia!

(FLguy needs to become Governor of Virginia!)


~Senor Jeb

[Anonymous]

Usted puede gobernar Woodbridge en cualquier momento usted como, FLguy.

(You can govern Woodbridge anytime you like, FLguy.)




-Senor Jeb

[FLguy]

¡Las necesidades de IFLguy llegan a ser Gobernadores de Virginia!

(FLguy needs to become Governor of Virginia!)


~Senor Jeb

thanks for the plug jeb, ill be sure to give you a tax break...lol

[Anonymous]

¡Las necesidades de IFLguy llegan a ser Gobernadores de Virginia!

(FLguy needs to become Governor of Virginia!)


~Senor Jeb

thanks for the plug jeb, ill be sure to give you a tax break...lol

Todo pregunto de usted, el Gobernador, es que usted me permite pala toda la nieve de Woodbridge cada invierno sin VDOT que entrando mi manera, todos los años usted está en la oficina. Gracias.

(All I ask from you, Governor, is that you allow me to shovel all the snow from Woodbridge every winter without VDOT getting in my way, every year you are in office. Thanks.)


~Senor Jeb

[donsutherland1]

BEF,

Of course, it should also be noted that wagers are not paid out at Churchill Downs based on the results at the first pole.

[Kelly]

BEF,

Of course, it should also be noted that wagers are not paid out at Churchill Downs based on the results at the first pole.

Don, If he does end up being right for some crazy reason, it won't be becuase he knew what he was doing, or his idea actually had some meteorological backing. It would just be luck. At least thats my opinion.

[donsutherland1]

Kelly,

I believe Richmond will have a more difficult time. I do believe both Baltimore and Washington, DC will see such a storm. Richmond could, but I'm less confident there.

We will see what happens. Having said that, I would be quite surprised if BEF's idea that none of the three cities mentioned above sees an 8" or greater snowstorm.

As we're just approaching mid-February, I am not at all concerned that such a storm has not yet occurred, especially as an early February storm was probably quite unlikely anyhow given the pattern evolution.

[Kelly]

I didn't know he was talking about Richmond as well. I thought it was DC and Baltimore. But you are probably right, Richmond has less of a chance of seeing an 8"+ event, but a 4"+ event is pretty likely even there.

[donsutherland1]

Kelly,

I agree with you. I also strongly believe that Richmond will see a 4" or greater snowstorm before the season ends.

[Anonymous]

Don... I respect your comments.

It will be interesting to see how the pattern unfolds. Next week should be storm free.

As you know, for these areas to recieve a "major" snow of 8+ inches, many factors need to come in line.

The horses are out of the gate and are rounding turn two. But it is still a long race yet to go.

[donsutherland1]

BEF,

While I agree that it will be interesting to see how the pattern unfolds, I do not believe next week will be storm free.

<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif">

I believe the system now coming into the West Coast will play a role during the middle or latter part of next week. What impact it has remains to be seen.

Will there be a degree of phasing?
Will the system head out to sea without making at least somewhat of a turn up the Coast (sparing much of the Mid-Atlantic and New England)?
Will the storm deepen sufficiently so as to pull down some cold air from southeastern Canada and allow for dynamic cooling?

These and additional questions remain to be resolved.

With the PNA likely to be positive, the NAO positive but trending down, and the Arctic Oscillation negative, I don't believe one can automatically dismiss the prospect of a coastal storm that impacts the Mid-Atlantic and possibly also New England.

At this time, model solutions are widely varied. There does appear to be a degree of consensus that some kind of storm will develop but what the models do with this storm differ markedly.

Finally, there is some analog support for a decent snowfall at about the time the storm is slated to affect at least part of the Eastern Seaboard. Hence, I would also be wary about writing it off too soon.

I'm not saying that the storm will actually happen. I am suggesting that at this time, there is at least some threat of storminess. For now, the details will have to wait but I do believe that next week will not be sleepy meteorologically-speaking.

In the end, now that the horses are out of the gate, there's no turning them back. A well-tested "winter" and the foal "spring" are heading for the next pole.

[JCT777]

Great post, Don. I am hopeful that we will have a winter storm to talk about next week.