Dallas/Forth Worth.....get ready!!!! Honk Honk!!!!

[Johnny]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
120 PM CST WED FEB 11 2004

***WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY***

...FORCING/PRECIPITATION...
ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS UPPER LOW
OUT OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ETA BEGINS
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. WITH
DEEP-LAYER SATURATION BY 00Z. WE EXPECT THAT SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL
DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY FROM ISENTROPIC
LIFT. FRIDAY NIGHT...PCPN SHOULD INTENSIFY AS STRONG FORCING MOVES
IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM
SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF HEAVY PCPN MAY DEVELOP NW OF
UPPER LOW IN STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE DURING THE DAY SAT. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ALL MODELS TRACK UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH PCPN ENDING W TO E DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT IS FAR TO EARLY TO QUANTIFY QPF AT THIS TIME...BUT
GUIDANCE ALREADY SUGGESTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY 18Z SATURDAY
FROM I-20 SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR A WINTER EVENT IN NORTH TEXAS.

...PCPN TYPE ANALYSIS...
ALL PARTIAL THICKNESS AND SOUNDING ANALYZES (USING NEW TOP-DOWN
APPROACH FOR MICROPHYSICAL CONSIDERATIONS) INDICATE WINTER
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY. OUR INITIAL THOUGHTS
ARE THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED INTO VERTICAL
MOTIONS RATHER EFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE RELATIVELY LITTLE
SENSIBLE HEATING IN THE MID-LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE MID-LEVELS WILL ALREADY
BE MARGINAL FOR FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN. JUST A LITTLE WARMING FROM
WAA WOULD CREATE AN ALL RAIN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE (SOME ICE PELLETS
MAY MIX IN AT THE ONSET THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING). FURTHER NORTH
(NORTH OF A KILLEEN TO ATHENS LINE BUT SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO PARIS
LINE)...PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
AREAS NORTH OF EASTLAND TO PARIS MAY STAY ALL SNOW DURING THE ENTIRE
EVENT.

...FORECAST...BEST ESTIMATES...
WE WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE OF SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW NW OF KILLEEN TO
ATHENS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET.

TO THE NORTH OF KILLEEN TO ATHENS BUT SOUTH OF EASTLAND TO
PARIS...LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW DEVELOPING W TO E FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

NORTH OF EASTLAND TO PARIS...ALL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE ARE OUR BEST GUESSES AT THIS TIME. WE WILL BE ISSUING A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT/ WINTER STORM OUTLOOK WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.

[Portastorm]

Johnny ... sssshhhh! Don't jinx us man.

[Suzi Q]

Oh my daughter is gonna scream. She's coming home to Houston this weekend.

[Johnny]

This just in. If this forecast stays the same then I'm hitting the road towards Dallas Friday afternoon.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
238 PM CST WED FEB 11 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-120400-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
238 PM CST WED FEB 11 2004

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM
IS STILL AT LEAST TWO DAYS AWAY...THERE REMAINS A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE REGIME. HOWEVER...THE FOLLOWING IS WHAT
WE BELIEVE...AT THIS TIME...TO BE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF EVENTS THAT
COULD OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE THREE AREAS WHERE DIFFERENT
PRECIPITATION TYPES CAN BE EXPECTED. SOUTH OF A KILLEEN...ATHENS
LINE...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET
LATE FRIDAY...CHANGING TO JUST RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

NORTH OF AN EASTLAND...PARIS LINE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.

BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...FROM THE COMANCHE...STEPHENVILLE...FORT
WORTH...DALLAS...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AREAS...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. SLEET OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY...CHANGING TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY.

AGAIN...THERE IS A GREAT DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...AND THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS A HUNDRED
MILES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD
DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE ABOVE PROJECTED SCENARIO.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

MORE INFORMATION WILL BE FORTHCOMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow it looks like this could be a pretty good event for north Texas...looks to be a cold rain here

[gboudx]

This is the key part of that forecast:

IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS A HUNDRED MILES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE ABOVE PROJECTED SCENARIO.

Having lived in the DFW area, I've seen cases where the system track definitely had an impact on the precip amount and type. It could mean all rain to 2-4 inches of snow and sleet. Good luck to the winter-lovers in that area. I'm jealous. :)

Add one more thing. I always hated when those systems came through on weekends. I mean, if it's gonna snow, then at least let me have a day off of work from it. :)