Next winter weather event....

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WXBUFFJIM
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Next winter weather event....

#1 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Wed Feb 11, 2004 2:20 pm

Good afternoon everyone. Some winter weather is likely in a few locations across the country today. The first area worth mentioning has got to be North Dakota where blizzard warnings were in effect for the Minot and Bismarck areas. The Bismarck and Minot areas are now under winter weather advisories. Winds are expected to diminish throughout the afternoon. However some blowing snow is likely, especially in open areas throughout the afternoon as an arctic surge continues to advect in from the north. Also not eht gradient between the clippr system now over Minnesota and high pressure building in from the west. In between those two features is where we see the tight pressure gradient. The tighter the gradient, the stronger the wind. That's the reasoning for this wind and blowing snow problem.

Last night, parts of North Dakota and eastern Montana experienced this strong gradient wind with gusts over 50 mph. This combined with a 1-3 inch snow pack produced what's called a ground blizzard. A ground blizzard is defined where no snow is actually falling. Skies maybe clear overhead with no falling snow. But instead there is blowing snow with strong winds and very low visibilities, which is why some roads in North Dakota had to be shut down for a time earlier today.

The next area of concern is in the front range of the Rockies where snow has occurred near Denver and Colorado Springs today as a strong weather system moved through from north to south. A few inches of accumulation is possible in the lower elevations with over 6 inches in the higher peaks and ski resorts. This will boad well for skiers, but definitely not drivers headed to the resorts. Best to slow it down on I 25 and I 70 today. Also be alert in portions of the Rockies for a heightened risk of avalanches. The avalanche danger remains quite high.

The next problem is going to be from eastern Tennessee, west central North Carolina, and Virginia where our next winter storm will set up. This southern stream storm system is getting better organized over the south central United States. As this southern stream storm interacts with marginally colder temps in VA/NC and eastern TN tonight through Thursday, snow is expected to accumulate. The highest snow totals will likely extend from extreme western North Carolina up to southwestern Virginia. However I do expect accumulating snow to reach the coastal zones of Virginia and northeast North Carolina later tonight into Thursday. This will be a quick moving system, thus any snow accumulations over 6 inches with this storm system will be very localized if any.

The area of heaviest snow is expected to fall from eastern Tennessee into western North Carolina where 5-7 inches is expected. A heavy snow warning is in effect for counties along Tennessee/North Carolina border where heavy snow is expcted for several hours time. This is where the heaviest snow totals are expected to occur at this point. However parts of northwestern North Carolina will likely see 3-6 inches of snow and it could be heavy at times there as well. Most of western, and north central North Carolina are now underneath winter storm watches for later tonight into Thursday. No watches, warnings, or advisories are up yet for Virginia. However I expect to see advisories go up later today for central and southern Virginia including the tidewater area where accumulating snow is expected. Breaking it down for Virginia, I expect 1-2 inches of snow for Richmond and Petersburg area. I expect 1-3 inches for Virginia Beach and Norfolk, VA. Some places along the VA/NC border could exceed 3 inches locally. However for the coastal zones of North Carolina, I expect more mixed precip with temps slightly above freezing. So any snow accumulation over 2 inches for northeast North Carolina would be a bit surprising despite the fact we have a winter storm watch in effect for this area as warmer air moves in from the ocean.

The real question is what about Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia?? With the split flow in the jet stream, I expect this southern stream storm system to track off the Carolina coast later Thursday. If the polar branch and subtropical branch of the jet stream got together and phased near the Carolina coast, then the Megalopolis would have seen a much bigger storm system. In this case, with the splitting of the polar and subtropical branch, this southern stream storm will be weak and will likely be brief in duration. Even though there is plenty of moisture available, I don't expect any snow accumulations to exceed 6 inches at this point, except in the higher terrain of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee where 5-7" is likely.

More updates on this storm later on this evening.

Jim
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#2 Postby JCT777 » Wed Feb 11, 2004 2:28 pm

Good update, Jim. This storm is more for NC and VA. From DC north, little or nothing will fall.
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Wed Feb 11, 2004 2:50 pm

Yep, very good for S VA, the Tidewater and NC which do not have many opportunities for snow. I hope they get 8 inches locally.

The weather is not so hot today over N VA; cool northerly breezes have eased the heat wave we endured yesterday with highs spiking near 60 degrees with widespread ravaging and savaging of our precious snowpack lol.

Last night we actually dipped to climo lows of 27 degrees!!!

Today we are in the low 40s, snow is unhappily melting BUT this weather is MUCH more acceptable than that darn near-60 blast furnace yesterday. Also Monday night we had LOWS in the upper 30s which really stressed out the snow (What little snow is left).

All in all it is much better here for now, we should get down into the mid 20s tonight and plentiful areas of slick ice will form near melting piles of snow as well as re-freezing of the ground and of piles of snow. Thank God!!! :) :)

We may miss this snow Thursday/Friday but at least the weather is far more bearable than yesterday's heat blast.


-Jeb!!!!! :) :)
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#4 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Wed Feb 11, 2004 3:30 pm

I know rainstorm would love to see snow in the tidewater area. Accumulating snows are looking more likely for southern and southeast VA into west central NC with lighter amounts across central Virginia and southern West Virginia. The heaviest snows will likely occur along the NC/TN border in the great Smoky Mountains where locally 8 inches are possible. A heavy snow warning is up for this area. More warnings are going up for western North Carolina for 3-6" of snow. Wilkesboro, keep an eye on this and likewise into Martinsville, VA where over 3 inches of snow is possible. This will shifts east into the tidewater Thursday morning. Rainstorm may need to be a snowstorm tomorrow. Some snow accumulation is expected for the tidewater.

Jim
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#5 Postby Anonymous » Wed Feb 11, 2004 4:16 pm

WXBUFFJIM wrote:I know rainstorm would love to see snow in the tidewater area. Accumulating snows are looking more likely for southern and southeast VA into west central NC with lighter amounts across central Virginia and southern West Virginia. The heaviest snows will likely occur along the NC/TN border in the great Smoky Mountains where locally 8 inches are possible. A heavy snow warning is up for this area. More warnings are going up for western North Carolina for 3-6" of snow. Wilkesboro, keep an eye on this and likewise into Martinsville, VA where over 3 inches of snow is possible. This will shifts east into the tidewater Thursday morning. Rainstorm may need to be a snowstorm tomorrow. Some snow accumulation is expected for the tidewater.

Jim



I wish them the very best luck with the snow tomorrow. :) I hope the system slows down and gives them 22 inches of snow, which will then have to be plowed. Those piles will then be so very high and absolutely DOMINATE the landscape!!! Those folks will enjoy many happy snow-related jebwalks !!! :)

I do not expect any snow at all in N VA with this, only a 10 percent chance of a stray flurry/sprinkle.

But I heartily wish the Tidewater/S VA/NC all the best luck in the world with this snow!!!!! :)

To the Tidewater/S VA/North Carolina, I unleash my very best


WOOOO--HOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


:jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

You folks down there do not get many opportunities for precious snows!! This is your chance and I wish you the very very best of luck with it!!!

Enjoy those snowy jebwalks down there!!! :) :) :)


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)
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#6 Postby FLguy » Wed Feb 11, 2004 4:34 pm

jeb --- tu esta loco. el VA del woodbridge tiene una ocasion muy buena de considerar veinte pulgadas mas acontecimiento de la nieve en marzo
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Wed Feb 11, 2004 5:05 pm

FLguy wrote:jeb --- tu esta loco. el VA del woodbridge tiene una ocasion muy buena de considerar veinte pulgadas mas acontecimiento de la nieve en marzo



I do not know how you know that I love different languages and the construction of different words FLguy-----unless you have seen this page on my site which is under ongoing construction----But I do tend to enjoy the construction of words a lot. I do not understand Spanish or Latin very well, but abstract words and terms are very, very interesting and that fascination is deepening by the year. Maybe that is why I find transliterated Russian place-names and personal names so interesting. Maybe its partly because Russia is such a cold, snow and ice-filled place in winter.

But anyway.....................lets see........................

jeb --- tu esta loco. el VA del woodbridge tiene una ocasion muy buena de considerar veinte pulgadas mas acontecimiento de la nieve en marzo

I am going to play "Daniel Jackson" here, That would be Daniel Jackson of Stargate SG-1 fame, that is. I am going to try and decipher this Goa'Uld..er Spanish sentence LOL!! (I think I mis-spelled Goa'Uld but that's the breaks I guess......)

jeb --- tu esta loco. el VA del woodbridge tiene una ocasion muy buena de considerar veinte pulgadas mas acontecimiento de la nieve en marzo

Jeb----That would be ME. Okay I see Woodbridge VA here. Muy Buena = very good, I think. Considerar=consider, consideration. Pulgadas = inches. Acontecimiento may well be accumulation, de la is Of the.........nieve = snow, and marzo definitely is March.

You are saying that Woodbridge, VA will see better chances of accumulating snows in March.

I admit it could happen.



-Jeb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#8 Postby FLguy » Wed Feb 11, 2004 5:10 pm

Jeb wrote:
FLguy wrote:jeb --- tu esta loco. el VA del woodbridge tiene una ocasion muy buena de considerar veinte pulgadas mas acontecimiento de la nieve en marzo



I do not know how you know that I love different languages and the construction of different words FLguy-----unless you have seen this page on my site which is under ongoing construction----But I do tend to enjoy the construction of words a lot. I do not understand Spanish or Latin very well, but abstract words and terms are very, very interesting and that fascination is deepening by the year. Maybe that is why I find transliterated Russian place-names and personal names so interesting. Maybe its partly because Russia is such a cold, snow and ice-filled place in winter.

But anyway.....................lets see........................

jeb --- tu esta loco. el VA del woodbridge tiene una ocasion muy buena de considerar veinte pulgadas mas acontecimiento de la nieve en marzo

I am going to play "Daniel Jackson" here, That would be Daniel Jackson of Stargate SG-1 fame, that is. I am going to try and decipher this Goa'Uld..er Spanish sentence LOL!! (I think I mis-spelled Goa'Uld but that's the breaks I guess......)

jeb --- tu esta loco. el VA del woodbridge tiene una ocasion muy buena de considerar veinte pulgadas mas acontecimiento de la nieve en marzo

Jeb----That would be ME. Okay I see Woodbridge VA here. Muy Buena = very good, I think. Considerar=consider, consideration. Pulgadas = inches. Acontecimiento may well be accumulation, de la is Of the.........nieve = snow, and marzo definitely is March.

You are saying that Woodbridge, VA will see better chances of accumulating snows in March.

I admit it could happen.



-Jeb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


no, actually my wife is half spanish, so i can write and speak it a little bit. and yes your right but you left out one important detail. and besides, nice site.
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#9 Postby Anonymous » Wed Feb 11, 2004 5:17 pm

I left out one important detail.

I am beginning to wonder what that is...................



-Jeb
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#10 Postby Colin » Wed Feb 11, 2004 5:30 pm

uno dos tres cuatro sinco seis siete ocho nueve deiz once dose trece catorse quince diez y seis...FLguy wanna continue? :D
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#11 Postby FLguy » Wed Feb 11, 2004 5:33 pm

sure...lol
once, doce, trece, catorce, quince, dieciseis, diecisiete, dieciocho, diecinueve, veinte...
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#12 Postby FLguy » Wed Feb 11, 2004 5:34 pm

Jeb wrote:I left out one important detail.

I am beginning to wonder what that is...................



-Jeb


when you get it right, ill let you know
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#13 Postby Anonymous » Wed Feb 11, 2004 5:56 pm

FLguy wrote:
Jeb wrote:I left out one important detail.

I am beginning to wonder what that is...................



-Jeb


when you get it right, ill let you know



Okay.......I am definitely NOT Daniel Jackson of SGC-1. Not even close LOL.......

Man I LOVE Science Fiction shows, especially SLIDERS, SO MUCH!!!! Remember the time they came out of the slider thing, right into another ICE AGE?!!!!

MAN I LOVED THAT EPISODE!!!!! There was SO MUCH SNOW!!! And the weather was so refreshing!!! It was not 56 degrees!!! LOL!

Another thing about Stargate SGC-1.......I do NOT like that Goa' Uld one little bit. Why do they always have DESERT planets anyway? The Goa 'Uld would freeze to death in an honest-to-goodness snow climate like that found on Jay Peak in January.

But I really need to take a Spanish class. Okay you guys are counting in Spanish, trying so hard to get something across to me. Trying to tell Jeb that there will be more than just a few inches of snow in March in Woodbridge VA.

Hmmmm...........................................

That veinte term really threw me. I thought it might be a number, but gosh, I can't count to ten in Spanish to save myself from the Goa 'Uld !!!!! Guess I'll be TOAST on one of their HOT, snowless desert planets LOL!!!

Lets see......Uno=1. Dos=2. Tres=3. Quatro=4, because Quad is four. Cinco is five because Cinco de Mayo is the Fifth of May in Mexico and everywhere else for that matter (But Mexico is way too hot and snowless and their food is twice as hot as their climate LOL!!! Believe me, I found that out the hard way down in San Marcos, Texas one summer when I was visiting my mom down in Central Texas a few years ago!! LOL!!). Number six is where I lose count in Spanish LOL.........Man I am definately a Northerner!!!! Give me my arctic cold and snow!!! It's TOO HOT in Mexico or Texas in summer for a decent jebwalk!!

However I have been able to piece together that that mysterious "veinte" term may be greater than ten pulgadas. I know its more than Cinco (five). Ocho is eight.

I am really kicking myself for not taking Spanish in high school. Why, you ask?

I was too busy taking temperature readings and praying for snow LOL!! :) :) :)


-Jeb
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#14 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Feb 11, 2004 6:02 pm

ROTFLMAO
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#15 Postby Lowpressure » Wed Feb 11, 2004 6:04 pm

Jeb- as luck would have it, I have to leave tonight for Winston Salem. They have Winter Storm Warnings up there. I still get the distinct feeling that we are prime for a big snow here- again around PD. Streams just need tophase and boom.
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#16 Postby Anonymous » Wed Feb 11, 2004 6:06 pm

Uno is 1, dos is 2, tres is 3, cuatro is 4,
cinco is 5, seis is 6, siete is 7, ocho is 8,
nueve is 9, diez is 10, once is 11 and, doce is 12.

Now I have not yet run into veinte. But I will tell ya, this is one heck of a snow though, if it indeed verifies.

More than 12 inches of snow?

Get out of here!!! We all know this is a winter with gypped snows in the MA due to dry air LOL.

Hmm.............I have GOT to find out what this mysterious veinte number is folks!!! This is VERY interesting indeed!!


-Jeb
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#17 Postby FLguy » Wed Feb 11, 2004 6:07 pm

jeb -- el su conseguir algo mas cerca piensa en lo que veinte medios en terminos de nevadas
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#18 Postby Anonymous » Wed Feb 11, 2004 6:07 pm

Lowpressure wrote:Jeb- as luck would have it, I have to leave tonight for Winston Salem. They have Winter Storm Warnings up there. I still get the distinct feeling that we are prime for a big snow here- again around PD. Streams just need tophase and boom.


Enjoy the snow!!! Enjoy a nice long jebwalk for me!!! :) :)



-Jeb
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#19 Postby FLguy » Wed Feb 11, 2004 6:09 pm

Stormsfury wrote:ROTFLMAO


el jeb tiene su cabeza pego hasta ahora encima del asno del viejo invierno del hombre que incluso no pienso que el respira el mismo aire que el resto de nosotros.
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#20 Postby Colin » Wed Feb 11, 2004 6:15 pm

Oh God Jeb veinte is TWENTY.
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