NWS in Jackson mentions the "S" word

[timNms]

From today's 3PM discussion:

ON ANOTHER NOTE...BOTH THE ETA AND GFS AGREE THAT WHEN THE SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SEEING AS THOUGH WE ARE ABOUT 84 HOURS AWAY
FROM THIS...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE. WILL INCLUDE RAIN MIXED WITH
SNOW WORDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBO OF EXTREMELY WET GROUND AND WARM
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROHIBIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

[FLguy]

From today's 3PM discussion:

ON ANOTHER NOTE...BOTH THE ETA AND GFS AGREE THAT WHEN THE SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION...RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SEEING AS THOUGH WE ARE ABOUT 84 HOURS AWAY
FROM THIS...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE. WILL INCLUDE RAIN MIXED WITH
SNOW WORDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBO OF EXTREMELY WET GROUND AND WARM
GROUND TEMPS WILL PROHIBIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

but the mid levels may be cold enough to support some wet snow, specially under the H5 low.

[timNms]

but the mid levels may be cold enough to support some wet snow, specially under the H5 low


How far south do you expect this to go, if it verifies?
I remember a few yrs ago in Dec. we had some wet snow...biggest flakes I've ever seen. We got a couple of inches. It stayed until about midnight and then melted.
In the March '93 storm, forcasters said the ground was too wet and warm for any accumlations also. It had rained all day that day before changing over to sleet, then to snow.

[PTrackerLA]

I would be happy in seeing some big wet flakes...I don't think we can feasibly hope for anything else down here with this event.

[FLguy]

but the mid levels may be cold enough to support some wet snow, specially under the H5 low


How far south do you expect this to go, if it verifies?
I remember a few yrs ago in Dec. we had some wet snow...biggest flakes I've ever seen. We got a couple of inches. It stayed until about midnight and then melted.
In the March '93 storm, forcasters said the ground was too wet and warm for any accumlations also. It had rained all day that day before changing over to sleet, then to snow.

guidance can be overdone on boundary layer temps from 84hrs out. and yes i have seen this before, several times. if the boundary layer is cold enough, you could very well see SOME accumulations. how much its too early to tell with any decent skill, at least IMO. and its also too soon to pin down whether or not the atmosphere would support optimal snow growth, or what ratios will be like. my guess however, would probably be no, and that ratios are Less than 10:1. especially given what most likely is going to be marginal temps throughout the column and high a high dendritic layer (-12 to -15C layer in the column)

[Valkhorn]

In the March '93 storm, forcasters said the ground was too wet and warm for any accumlations also. It had rained all day that day before changing over to sleet, then to snow.

I remember that day very well. That morning they forecasted no accumulations and a mix of ice and rain. Then that afternoon when I got home from school (I was in the 6th grade) they upped it to 2-4 inches. Around 9pm it was up to 8 inches and a heavy snow warning was posted.

Mother nature can pull some surprises.