00z Runs looking MUCH better for snow in the deep south

Winter Weather Discussion

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Stormsfury
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#21 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Feb 12, 2004 12:25 am

Valkhorn wrote:Well I remember three weeks ago the snows in NC were grossly underestimated. There was a lot of evaporative cooling, but the moisture content was enough that it knocked the temp all the way down to a dewpoint of 17 degrees in Greensboro around the 25th from a high the previous day of 60. That's very interesting, and that's a lot of moisture to do that. There was some CADing going on as well, but I remember the radar returns out of Chattanooga before the event, and the line between virga and heavy rain was pretty sharp the night before.


Um, I saw that coming from 6-7 days out to occur ... and warned people what to expect regarding that severe Carolinas icestorm ... and many of the associated forecast offices around the Carolinas caught onto the CAD days in advance ... GSP had some of the best discussions during this event ...

SF


SF
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#22 Postby Valkhorn » Thu Feb 12, 2004 12:51 am

Yes, you did, but you're in the minority there Storms :P
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#23 Postby Valkhorn » Thu Feb 12, 2004 12:52 am

Yup, convective activity that wasn't even forecast here... simply remarkable
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#24 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Feb 12, 2004 1:08 am

Valkhorn wrote:Yes, you did, but you're in the minority there Storms :P


Thanks for the compliment...

Yup, convective activity that wasn't even forecast here... simply remarkable


You're right, it wasn't ... which definitely strengthens the argument about your local forecast office missing the convective potential ...

SF
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#25 Postby Valkhorn » Thu Feb 12, 2004 1:13 am

It's not just the local, the statewide office missed it as well.
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#26 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Feb 12, 2004 1:44 am

Ok so bottom line, do areas near the gulf coast (i.e. Lafayette, LA) stand ANY chance at seeing any kind of frzn precip fall this weekend? I know even if temps will be colder than they are now forecasting, they will only be MARGINAL for frozen precip but does anyone see any chance of this happening???
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#27 Postby Anonymous » Thu Feb 12, 2004 1:51 am

Stormsfury wrote:
Valkhorn wrote:Yes, you did, but you're in the minority there Storms :P


Thanks for the compliment...

Yup, convective activity that wasn't even forecast here... simply remarkable


You're right, it wasn't ... which definitely strengthens the argument about your local forecast office missing the convective potential ...

SF


It then follows that the system now moving through the SE and the MA will be wetter in actuality than progged.......and if you look at the radars now at 130am, you will indeed see the trend a bit north of due east which could be problematical for Virginia overnight into Thursday. It is down to about 30 degrees at the sfc here and the Td is 24 degrees.

Maybe I am just flirting with some wishful thinking, but then we could be about to get HIT but GOOD in N VA!!!!!

Can you say, "Snow-related jebwalk" yet?

Radar Loop


-Jeb
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