Winter Storm Thoughts - when will it happen? Maybe not...

[ezweather]

As I look at the models for any major snow storms for the Mid Atlantic, they just don't show it or at least have the cold air in place and time it right with the subtropical jet. The 00z Feb 13 GFS, including the last several runs show no real phasing with northern and southern branch. In fact, it just keeps things moving along without any phasing. As most of you know, there was a model run that did show some excitement for the 18-20th, but there just haven't been enough model support for this idea this morning. Whats also not good is that the NAO is predicted to go positive. Now, from what I recall, Joe Bastardi stated that when NAO goes positive, thats when you get snow storms, but when its negative, its cold and dry. It just seemed that way last year, especially if look take a look when we did have snow storms. Even this year, I believe that is the case. Very intereeseting stuff. Anyway, even the PNA is predicted to go negative. Just not seeing things there in place to get me excited.

As a snowlover, I'm frustrated as hell. But I still think something is in the offing. Even this board and wrightweather is a bit on the quiet side for snow snowstorm discussion. Just very quiet with a post here and there. Maybe were all getting tired of this not so great winter. Its reminding me of that painfall one back in 1985 and 86. We couldn't buy a storm. Tons of cold air, but nothing. Very painfall. One key item I need to check out is whats happening over in Europe. So far, haven't heard anything. I'm always looking for that extreme weather. I know we had it here along the East coast back in early December. Last year, London was hit with a blizzard. A week later, the Mid-Atlantic had a blizzard. I believe thats what happen. But man, is this month going to end quiet? I can't believe that, but maybe it will...

Well, its Friday and I'm glad its the end of the week. Hopefully, we'll start to see some exciting stuff to at least tell us something is coming. Hopefully, this afternoon will show something. By the way, I did save those images that the GFS was showing for that 18th-20th period. It was exciting, but really, be nice if the ensembles where screaming for one.

I definitely would like to hear your thoughts, especially from DT, HM, Donsutherland.

[JCT777]

My thinking is that the period from February 25 through March 15 will be cold in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, with several opportunites for a decent snowstorm. And I believe one of those opportunities will bring an 8"+ snow event along the east coast from DC up through New England.