Winter weather update, SG and Ticka should read this!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning everyone. It's an early Saturday morning across the eastern and central United States and we got some wintry weather issues to face, not only this weekend from Texas into Virginia and North Carolina, but also during the middle of next week. East coast residents from North Carolina north are urged to monitor later forecasts for Tuesday through Wednesday as conditions favor a nor' easter and a potential significant winter storm.

Shifting our focus to Texas first where we have numerous advisories and warnings up for snow and ice. Areas from central to eastern Texas will experience gulf moisture combined with a strong upper low. With this upper low in place combined with the precipitation will result in a dynamic cooling effect where all layers of the atmosphere are cold below freezing. If you're in Shreveport and you're saying it's all rain, just wait until that strong upper low moves in during the early morning. Rain is expected to change over to snow in Shreveport and in areas where we don't usually see snow such as the northern suburbs of Houston and in Beaumont, TX as well. The key is the fact we'll see gulf moisture and dynamic cooling combined across Texas courtesy of this very strong upper low. As the precip falls, the entire layer will essentially cool below freezing or near freezing from top to bottom, thus snow in places we don't usually see it, even down to Interstate 10 in southeast Texas!!! Yea SG and Ticka, you might want to watch this also since snow is a rare occurrance this far south.


CURRENT WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES for Texas: A winter storm warning is now in effect for the Dallas and Fort Worth Metroplex and it's surrounding suburbs. Within this area of north Texas, snowfall amounts could approach 2-4 inches tonight into Saturday with higher amounts expected east of Dallas where more moisture is progged to be according to the computer models. Surrounding the warning, there are winter weather advisories up for the Abilene, Waco, Bryan, and College Station areas. This includes Huntsville, TX and the northwest suburbs of Houston and just northwest of Beaumont. These areas can expect a 1-3 inch snowfall tonight into Saturday with less than an inch expected during the same time period just northwest of Houston and Beaumont. However I want to stress the fact this upper low is very strong and cold core. Thus we could even see snow flakes and snow showers in the city of Houston and Beautmont. However any accumulation in those areas looks very minimal. But a light dusting in Houston and Beaumont is certainly a big deal as snow hardly ever occurs this far south.

FURTHER EAST: As this system continues further east into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, QPF amounts are progged to increase further given the increasing gulf moisture being entrained into this upper level storm system. Areas from Shreveport to Jackson points northward need to watch this one carefully as the upper low will still be cold core and very strong. This upper low is progged to become slightly warmer with time, but we still have snow chances even as far east as northern Alabama and north Georgia including Atlanta with this cold and dynamic upper low.

In light of this significant potential for snow, a winter storm watch has been hoisted for northern Mississippi north of Jackson and extending westward into northeast Louisiana. Nothing has been issued yet for Shreveport. However a winter storm is likely in the Shreveport area as well as we head on through Saturday. A widespread 2-4 inch swath of snow is anticipated from northeast Texas through northern Louisiana including Shreveport and Monroe, southern Arkansas, and most of northern Mississippi, north of Jackson. Some places, especially near the Shreveport area could see in excess of 4 inches in heavier snow bands. Definitely a significant storm for southern standards.

As this storm system continues tracking east Sunday towards the North and South Carolina coast, a surface low is expected to develop near the coast later Sunday. As this occurs, an arctic front will plow southward and moisture is expected to interact with a new arctic airmass across North Carolina and into southern Virginia including the tidewater area. By Sunday night, as this moisture and cold air combines, expect significant snow potentially for Raleigh, Elizabeth City, NC, Danville, VA, Norfolk, VA, and Virginia Beach, VA as well. Areas south of a Cape Hatteras to Burn, NC line should see more rain mix in with the snow while areas north and west of a Newport News to Chincoteague line see a sharp cutoff to the snow. Areas north and west of this line including Richmond and Salisbury will likely see little if any snow at all while areas south and east of this line potentially sees heavy snow at times with accumulations over 4 inches possible from Virginia Beach and Norfolk south and westward into the Raleigh vicinity. This is an early estimate and the forecast and track is subject to change. In addition, strong winds along the Virginia and northeast North Carolina coast could result in some blowing snow potential Sunday night into early Monday. Snow should taper off across the North Carolina and Virginia coastal zones Monday around sunrise.

Then the next storm system, which is moving through the Pacific northwest now will track around the base of an upper trough across the south central part of the United States. Latest projections shows this longwave trough amplifing across the eastern United States allowing a new surface low to form off the North Carolina coast late Monday night into Tuesday. This low will likely be accompanied by moisture and a very strong upper jet stream of over 150 knots potentially. It's too early to speculate on the details of this storm. However areas from North Carolina northward through the megalopolis are urged to keep a close eye on this thing as temperatures will likely be cold enough despite a small moderating trend Tuesday into Wednesday to support a significant frozen precip potential. Definitely something worth keeping an eye on and more updates will be given of this midweek winter storm potential as new data and more clearer information is given. Stay tuned!!!!

Have a good Saturday morning folks. That's the latest at this time.

Jim

[southerngale]

Thanks Jim.....I hope you're right!!

*still crossing all fingers and toes*

[Guest]

Okay Jim - I'm gonna go and get some sleep - the temp is 40 degrees right now....if I catch a couple of hours sleep and get up around 4 or 5 am - perhaps I can see some flakes against the outdoor lights....

Let's all PRAY.

Patricia

[WXBUFFJIM]

Jim crosses his fingers, toes, paws, and prays for you both for some snow flakes at the very least.

Jim

[Mattie]

IT IS DEFINITELY SNOWING IN TEXAS!!!!!


If I could figure out how to attach pictures, I would. . . . HELP! It's beautiful!!!!!!

I'll be taking that "Jeb" walk here at daybreak.[/img]

[furluvcats]

Shreveport, LA
We're getting snow! It was hard to sleep lastnight, with the excitement of an expectant SNOW! It's a mix of ice and snow right now, very shortly turning to an all day snow! This is so exciting...I've never gotten to post in this forum before!!!

Not just beads falling from the sky on this fine Mardi Gras parade day! Enjoy your snow Texans, and Louisinans!

[wrkh99]

I wouldn't sleep


You can sleep when your dead . Enjoy the snow

[timNms]

Shreveport, LA
We're getting snow! It was hard to sleep lastnight, with the excitement of an expectant SNOW! It's a mix of ice and snow right now, very shortly turning to an all day snow! This is so exciting...I've never gotten to post in this forum before!!!

Not just beads falling from the sky on this fine Mardi Gras parade day! Enjoy your snow Texans, and Louisinans!

Hey, send us some!

[Mattie]

TXZ091>095-102>107-123-142200-
COLLIN TX-COOKE TX-DELTA TX-DENTON TX-FANNIN TX-GRAYSON TX- HOPKINS TX-HUNT TX-LAMAR TX-MONTAGUE TX-RAINS TX-WISE TX-

HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED NO. OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WINTER STORM MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION.


We have about 3 - 3 1/2 inches on the ground now.

[timNms]

Mattie,
Isnt' that a bit more than they first thought?

[wrkh99]

Sounds just like the storm of 97 doesn't it Tim ?

[bfez1]

No snow for me!!!

[Mattie]

Yep - just a "bit" more - said original 1-2 inches. It is still falling . . .

Last measurement in my back yard is 4 inches.

[Stephanie]

It's really sad when someone in the MidAtlantic says that they're jealous of the people in the South because of the snow they're getting!

Enjoy it guys - but BE CAREFUL if you go out later!

[OtherHD]

Well, the rain/snow line got about as far south as Lufkin. Houston Metro saw only rain.

[wrkh99]

HD 's Snow nazi shield it still working

[Stephanie]

HD 's Snow nazi shield it still working

You gotta admit though, Houston is WAY down there.

[wrkh99]

Yes it is way out there

[Skywatch_NC]

Furry and others enjoy your snow! Also, BTW Fur...remember that January 2000 storm...when you were on the NC coast?

Eric

[Mattie]

http://groups.msn.com/wrcgb/shoebox.msn ... hotoID=280
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