Winter storm evening update 2-14-04

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening. We got two winter storms to track over the next 4-5 days, both of which could bring a significant impact east of the Rocky Mountains. One of the hardest hit areas will likely be the Middle Atlantic coast where a winter storm watch is up from the tidewater south and westward into parts of North Carolina Areas under the winter storm watch include the cities of Raleigh, Durham, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach and is valid for Sunday night into early Monday morning. In addition, numerous statements are being issued north of the Virginia tidewater highlighting potential significant impacts courtesy of a possible mid week nor' easter. Folks from the tidewater and northeast North Carolina northward through the megalopolis may want to pay attention to this over the next 4-5 days and stay tuned for later forecasts and statements!!!

First a look at what has occurred over the past 24 hours. Snowfall amounts were significant for most of northern and central Texas and into southern Oklahoma last night into this morning. Snow amounts ranged from 3 inches in Dallas to about 5 inches in Tarrant County near the Fort Worth area. Snow continues this hour across southern Oklahoma from Fredrick, OK eastward to Ardmore on I 35. Snow totals with this band north of the upper level storm is expected to be close to if not over 6 inches in spots. The following below is some specific snow amounts from the NWS in Fort Worth, TX. These numbers could change later in spots.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1154 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2004

...UPDATED SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...

THESE ARE SOME UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
1145 AM CST.

COUNTY AMOUNT TIME REMARKS

TARRANT 4.2 INCHES 835 AM CST NWS OFFICE N FT WORTH
TARRANT 3.5 INCHES 845 AM CST NWS EMPLOYEE IN S ARLINGTON
DALLAS 3.0 INCHES 858 AM CST DFW OBSERVER
CORYELL 2.0 INCHES 900 AM CST CO OP OBSERVER IN EVANT
TARRANT 5.0 INCHES 925 AM CST NWS EMPLOYEE IN SAGINAW
DALLAS 3.0 INCHES 925 AM CST NWS EMPLOYEE IN DALLAS
MONTAGUE 3.5 INCHES 950 AM CST SHERIFFS OFFICE IN BOWIE
TARRANT 5.5 INCHES 1000 AM CST NWS EMPLOYEE GRAPEVINE
COLLIN 3.2 INCHES 1020 AM CST
RAINS 3.0 INCHES 1041 AM CST SHERIFFS OFFICE IN EMORY
TARRANT 4.0 INCHES 1050 AM CST NWS EMPLOYEE IN KELLER

$$

30/SS

The next statement comes from San Antonio where snow and sleet mixed in with rain last night down in the San Antonio and Austin areas.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
158 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2004

THE FOLLOWING IS A PRELIMINARY LIST OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS REPORTED
BY SHERIFF OFFICES AND THE PUBLIC IN COUNTIES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SO FAR.

VAL VERDE COUNTY...TRACE
REAL COUNTY........TRACE
KERR COUNTY........0.5 INCHES TO NEAR 1 INCH
INGRAM....0.5 INCHES
BANDERA COUNTY.....1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET
MEDINA COUNTY......TRACE OF SNOW AND SLEET
BEXAR COUNTY.......TRACE SOUTH TO 0.5 INCHES TO 1 INCH NORTH
SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...0.7 INCHES
KENDALL COUNTY.....TRACE TO 1 INCH
6 MILES NORTH OF BOERNE......0.5 INCHES
GILLESPIE COUNTY...TRACE
LLANO COUNTY.......1 TO 2 INCHES
BLANCO COUNTY......1 INCH
COMAL COUNTY.......1/2 TO 1 1/2 INCHES
NEW BRAUNFELS...0.5 INCHES TO 1 INCH
HAYS COUNTY........1 INCH
GUADALUPE COUNTY...1/2 INCH
WILSON COUNTY......TRACE OF SLEET
BASTROP COUNTY.....TRACE
TRAVIS COUNTY......1 TO 2 INCHES
AUSTIN MABRY...1.6 INCHES
AUSTIN BERGSTROM...0.7 INCHES
WILLIAMSON COUNTY..1 TO 3 INCHES
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COUPLAND 1 INCH
NEAR GRANGER 2 TO 3 INCHES
BURNET COUNTY......1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES.
INKS DAM...1 INCH OF SNOW

$$

More snow is expected to occur from south central Arkansas south and westward into southern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However additional accumulations of snow is expected to be on the light side with a general 1-3 inches. Areas favored include southern Oklahoma where a heavy snow warning continues for a little while longer.

Shifting our focus further east where we could see snow even into portions of Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and northern Georgia over the next 12-24 hours. However with this upper level storm becoming a little bit warmer, the chances for accumulating snow this far east lessens a tad. However with the expectation for dynamic cooling occurring underneath this upper low still favors snowfall amounts of around 2 inches from northern Mississippi through northern Alabama and southern Tennessee tonight, mainly on grassy areas. However within heavier snow bands, a few places could end up with over 2 inches of snow. Memphis, TN, Monroe, LA, and Huntsville, Alabama is included in this threat. Atlanta could even see a rain/snow mix later on Sunday before precipitation comes to an end from west to east.

Then the focus shifts towards the Mid Atlantic coast and the northeastern United States from Sunday night on through the day Wednesday as two storm systems will affect these areas. System number 1 will bring frozen precipitation, which will be mostly snow across most of north central, northeast, and western North Carolina Sunday night into early Monday. Southern and southeast Virginia will see all snow from this system. The cities of Winston Salem, Raleigh, Durham, Elizabeth City, Wakefield, Norfolk, Chesapeake, and Virginia Beach are all now under a winter storm watch for Sunday night through early Monday morning. Snowfall amounts will range from 3-5 inches across most of western and north central North Carolina with 2-4 inches possible for the Pimilco River, and the northern Outer Banks including Kitty Hawk and Elizabeth City. However the heaviest snow axis from this storm will likely occur along the North Carolina/Virginia border and into southeast Virginia where frontogenesis frcing will likely be maximized. As a result of this, some places in the tidewater of Virginia and the Virginia/North Carolina border could see over 6 inches of snow with this storm system. 6 inches plus will likely be isolated to areas where heavier and more persistent frontogenesis banding occurs. Thus expect some severe rush hour disruptions on Monday morning for the Virginia Tidewater area and for most of North Carolina where temps will struggle to get above freezing on Monday. The bigger question is where will the northern edge of this precip shield be located? It appears right now on the line from Richmond, Virginia to Chicoteague, VA north and west will see nothing at all while Richmond-Chincoteague, VA south and east run into the snow and t quickly becomes heavy at times. The cutoff line just like th case was in December 2000 could be quite sharp. Something to keep an eye on.

Beyond Sunday night and Monday, the stormy pattern is not over as cold air remains in place in advance of the next storm system. This second storm system could have a serious impact from northern North Carolina and the tidewater of Virginia northward through the megalopolis. Significant frozen precipitation is possible in the Mid Atlantic and northeastern United States Tuesday through Wednesday as we could see a possible nor' easter develop along the eastern seaboard. In addition to significant frozen precipitation potential, there is also potential of gale force and higher than normal tides along the mid atlantic and northeastern US coastline. It is too early to specify on details of snow amounts and how significant winds and tides could be along the coast. However the potential does exist of significant storm system midweek along the eastern seaboard as the jet stream becomes better amplified along the coast. This amplification in the upper level jet near the eastern seaboard favors potential significant coastal development. Folks living in the mid atlantic and northeast are urged to pay close attention to future forecasts, statements, and possible watches and warnings issed by local media and the national weather service.

More updates later on this 1-2 punch!!! Have a good evening.

Jim

[thstorm87]

well I really hope your right, but I have a bad feeling, most models seem to be now trending out to sea. Be lucky to see anything here in philly.

[rainstorm]

could be big here

[verycoolnin]

It looks like a big winter event for coastal VA and parts of interior NE NC.

[Anonymous]

It's going to be big for areas east of the I-95. What about the central and southern coast of NJ.