South/Southeast Snow chances..

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South/Southeast Snow chances..

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Feb 14, 2004 10:46 am

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(use the toolbar to My forecast/Prognostic Discussion) ....
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wrkh99

#2 Postby wrkh99 » Sat Feb 14, 2004 11:27 am

So where in MS/ AL GA should I go to see snow ?
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Feb 14, 2004 11:53 am

wrkh99 wrote:So where in MS/ AL GA should I go to see snow ?


Best chances ... northern AL (Probably NW section)

SF
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Feb 14, 2004 12:25 pm

ETA progged 500mb temperatures and 950mb Heights/Temperatures ...

Another reason NOT to give up some seeing snow ... in MS, AL, GA, and the Carolinas ...

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And 950mb temperatures - heavier banding will draw that air down to the SFC EASILY ...

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SF
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#6 Postby breeze » Sat Feb 14, 2004 7:41 pm

Wow, look at that! Hey, I'll just take 1" of snow...
or, 2"... ;)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
117 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
117 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID STATE TOWARD
SUNRISE...WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ROADWAYS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS WHEN CROSSING BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE MID STATE
...YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AS THIS
SITUATION DEVELOPS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...OVER NORTHWESTERN AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS GROUPS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
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#7 Postby wx247 » Sat Feb 14, 2004 7:44 pm

Annette is probably going to get snow! YAY! :multi:
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#8 Postby breeze » Sat Feb 14, 2004 7:55 pm

LOL, I'll second that YAY!!! :multi: :12: :boog:
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#9 Postby bfez1 » Sat Feb 14, 2004 8:12 pm

You forgot LA! J/K :)
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#10 Postby Erica » Sat Feb 14, 2004 8:34 pm

Nice catch, SF. Lets take a look at 500mb heights and vorticity valid at 9z and 12z on Sunday morning.

9z
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12z
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The closed low at 500mb would imply good PVA ahead of the vort, and the development of strong UVM throughout the column, in the deformation zone. The figure below depicts 850mb UVM (Upward Vertical Motion).

850mb UVM
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500mb UVM
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Notice the strong UVM and negative Omegas throughout a deep layer. This is a good sign when looking for maximized snowfall growth, and the most out of the available QPF.

this all however, assumes that dynamical cooling will be able to overcome the warm layers aloft, to produce snowfall, if not, then precipitation type remains rain.

the sounding at HSV (Huntsville, AL) would not support any type of frozen precipitation at 9z. However as the low progresses east-northeast, the strong UVM will encounter the North Georgia mountains, and the southern appalachains. These are the areas which could see quite a bit of snowfall, then that area will continue east into North Carolina and Southern Virginia.

As we get down to 27 hours (21z Sunday) the best UVM will have moved into the carolinas, where temperature profiles are a bit more acceptable for widespread snowfall.

Here's ETA 850mb temps valid 21z Sunday.

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850mb UVM
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500mb UVM
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300mb UVM
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The ETA implies that UVM should be fairly strong through a deep layer of the atmosphere, but in order to determine if snowfall growth will be maximized, we have to see where the best UVM and RH are located in relatioship to the -12 to -15C layer of the column.

The 0z Sounding at DAN (Danville, VA) showed an above freezing boundary layer, and a slightly anove freezing temps below 968mb in the lowest few Hundred meters above the surface. Otherwise, the sounding implied some convective instability and CSI signal, with dry Adiabatic lapse rates, and weak elevated CAPE.

Image

Image
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#11 Postby wrkh99 » Sat Feb 14, 2004 8:38 pm

password protected erica
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#12 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Feb 14, 2004 8:41 pm

wrkh99 wrote:password protected erica


Free trial until tomorrow

Username: demo
Password: sleet
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#13 Postby wrkh99 » Sat Feb 14, 2004 8:43 pm

thanks I just got that . Charging laptop up now . Will have 56k connection in the 4x4 :)
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#14 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Feb 14, 2004 8:46 pm

wrkh99 wrote:thanks I just got that . Charging laptop up now . Will have 56k connection in the 4x4 :)


Good. make sure you get pictures, and also, you might wanna check soundings and use the RUC/radar trends for quick updates ...

SF
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#15 Postby wrkh99 » Sat Feb 14, 2004 8:49 pm

i'm going to use Stormlab professional for all my radar stuff . With weathertap as a backup .

Digital camera and also nokia 3650 will make the trip.
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#16 Postby Erica » Sat Feb 14, 2004 8:49 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
wrkh99 wrote:password protected erica


Free trial until tomorrow

Username: demo
Password: sleet


Yea, or those that have a normal account anyway can just use that.
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#17 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Feb 14, 2004 8:54 pm

Outstanding post, Erica ... back in MS/AL, there are likely to be locations that will pick up accum. snowfalls even if SFC temperatures remain barely ABV FRZ, and the enhancement from potential CSI, and a deformation zone setting up. Again, with such cold temperatures just ABV the SFC (950mb and up, espc. behind the H5 low), heavier (and in this case, convective precip) will drag down colder air and draw this down to the SFC (just like a summertime storm) ...

And again, the model guidance doesn't handle dynamical cooling and CSI banding well ... and generally, completely misses, and fools many forecasters as well ... which can be attributed to some of the busts in the Southland/Southeast on many occasions in the past ...
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#18 Postby Erica » Sat Feb 14, 2004 9:06 pm

To get CSI and banding, you need negative EPV above a sloping frontal bundary. If were looking at Convecitve instability, theta-e drops with height, and dry adiabatic lapse rates are required, above 6.00 C/km. Some SCAPE ( Slantwise CAPE) can also help. But I Don't have BUFKIT installed so i can't tell whether or not there is any elevated CAPE for sure.
Last edited by Erica on Sat Feb 14, 2004 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#19 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Feb 14, 2004 9:08 pm

Erica wrote:To get CSI and banding, you need negative EPV above a sloping frontal bundary. If were looking at Convecitve instability, theta-e drops with height, and dry adiabatice lapse rates are required, above 6.00 C/km. Some SCAPE ( Slantwise CAPE) can also help. But I Don't have BUFKIT installed so i can't tell whether or not there is any elevated CAPE for sure.


I do, but I'm having some issues with running it sometimes, especially when I'm updating my website ... so I'm not absolutely sure myself ...
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#20 Postby Erica » Sun Feb 15, 2004 1:43 am

Stormsfury wrote:
Erica wrote:To get CSI and banding, you need negative EPV above a sloping frontal bundary. If were looking at Convecitve instability, theta-e drops with height, and dry adiabatice lapse rates are required, above 6.00 C/km. Some SCAPE ( Slantwise CAPE) can also help. But I Don't have BUFKIT installed so i can't tell whether or not there is any elevated CAPE for sure.


I do, but I'm having some issues with running it sometimes, especially when I'm updating my website ... so I'm not absolutely sure myself ...


I'm going to install it tomorrow actually, I haven't gotten around to it since we have GEMPAK. So I mostly use that instead. It's the easiest way to make cross-sections, and display pretty much any paramater at any different level. Really great software though, I think. But you need to have Linux.
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