NC Snowstorm

[wxbrad]

Been trudging through model data tonight and the 0z stuff painted a pretty white picture for the Charlotte Metro and points North and East.

Latest ETA Bufkit soundings show rain changing to snow at around 8pm Sunday night with a burst of heavy snow lasting until 1-2am Monday morning. QPF and snow algorithm puts’ out 4.093” of snow for Charlotte. With snow staring again at 6am Tuesday with next storm, but will save that for later.

I’m not a model worshiper, but have seen good results with the Meso-Eta and Eta during winter events in the Carolinas. Then there is just the radars, sat loops and surface obs that make me think this UL is tracking in an ideal location for a burst of heavy snow. Looks like the deformation zones and convective elements are going to hammer someone. These events are the worst forecasted by the NWS. Similar event back last year on 1/23/03 went from the 1-2” snowfall from the NWS to 12-15” in and just west of the Charlotte Metro.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/

I see similarities here. I mean it’s hard to place where the heavy precip dump will be with the deformation zone. But where ever the low tracks you can bank on 30-50 miles north of the track getting hammer. Here’s good reading on the subject below.

I’m, and baffled at my fellow colleagues in the broadcast end here trying to convince the public the wedge is the major player. While the wedge will help in this event, this UL is bringing it’s own cold air with dynamic cooling from the upper levels. It's doesn't necessarily need the wedge this go around. Tuesday-Wednesday is a different story.

Good article on deformation zones.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/dno ... Composites

[vbhoutex]

Wxbrad, WELCOME to STORM2K!!! I always say the more the merrier and especially when they post information that helps me and others learn more about my addiction-the weather.

To bad those of us that are snow starved in the deep south didn't get in on this one(Houston here). It was so close(flurries withing 20 miles)but oh so far.

[wxbrad]

tex,
Was working in the Big Easy for 4 yeasr before coming to the Carolinas last year.

I too was starved for snow, we had one winter storm warning while I was there. We ending up with 2-3" of snow From Baton Rouge,LA - McComb,MS. I think half of New Orleans residents drove up to the Northshore in the middle of the night just to see the white stuff.

[QCWx]

tex,
Was working in the Big Easy for 4 yeasr before coming to the Carolinas last year.

I too was starved for snow, we had one winter storm warning while I was there. We ending up with 2-3" of snow From Baton Rouge,LA - McComb,MS. I think half of New Orleans residents drove up to the Northshore in the middle of the night just to see the white stuff.

Welcome to the board Brad!

Do you honestly think there's a fighting chance of us matching the January 23rd totals from last year? I know that storm featured abnormally high ratios(I measured around 48:1 here) but we do have more precip possibly coming this time.

[wxbrad]

That event was starnge and the ratios in my opion where way off. CLT had 8.5" of snow but only .09" of liquid. The NWS did some investiagting and found there were some erros, but the ration way maybe 20:1 or 25:1.

There was some serious cold air behind that syatem, we hit a record low of 9 the following night with a nice snowpack.

Brad

[Stormsfury]

I'm very surprised that after the January 23rd, 2003 event that the temperatures weren't even colder ... that was a rare breed storm for since it was northern stream all the way ...

QCWx, this is a southern stream s/w and part of the problem back in MS/AL and unfortunately, the RUC saw the partial bust quite well ...

Latest RUC shows snow breaking out in NC in just about 3-6 hours from now ... and continues to look quite good ...

(A Just waking up, need caffeine SF)

[JQ Public]

I am looking at the radar...and it seems like more moisture is getting wrapped into the system.

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/mosaic.lo ... onus.shtml

[wxbrad]

Looks like a nice deformation zone with convective elements is forming with heavy snow. Should be a SPC mesoscale discussion out shortly.

The band in currently from Crossville, Danville, VA and is progressing ESE and should dump some Nice snow total across NC and VA.

Also not the cyclogenises taking place near Wilmington, NC.

http://66.100.248.10/Local/USLocalWide. ... e&pid=none

[JQ Public]

This is looking good for much of us. Will it fill in? Will it move north?

[wxbrad]

The fun thing here is I have North winds here at CLT with temps dropping, the mid and upper level winds are causing some good lift. Looks like the wedge may haelp to enhance iso lift over the region. Still looks like 1-3" and close to 5" up RDU way!

[Stormsfury]

Recent lightning detection indicating some decent strikes just within the last 20 minutes from that convective band as well ...

Latest RUC (SPC Plots) indicated at 22z the strongest vorticity right over Anderson, SC ... with strongest UVV's (700-500mb) actually over Western NC ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/RUC.html

(Toolbar to SPC Make your own Map)

[Stormsfury]

Also, latest soundings from CLT (21z) indicate the FRZ level at the 920mb level, with TD's below ZERO at the 950mb...

[wxbrad]

Yeah looks like a quick convective burst of snow heading my way, these are the kind of convective elemenst that can bust a snow forecast. Also cause whiteout conditions and casue chaos on the roads! The wedge is really building down this way, cold NNE winds and raw temps!

[Stormsfury]

Yeah looks like a quick convective burst of snow heading my way, these are the kind of convective elemenst that can bust a snow forecast. Also cause whiteout conditions and casue chaos on the roads! The wedge is really building down this way, cold NNE winds and raw temps!

That's what been happening across the Southland last night and today ... where the convective bursts are setting up (hence my precautionary notes last night on my website, about the HIGHLY localized heavier amounts) ... Believe me, right now, CLT is looking prime for a decent burst, and with that convective band, there shouldn't be any problem with accum ... with temperature falls AND wedging taking shape ... almost too good to be true ...

SF

[wxbrad]

Yeah hear ya, just starting seeing light snow here at my place and just got called ino work, radar not doing a good job of picking up where we have surafce reports of snow at the moment.

[Stormsfury]

Actually, I'm not surprised about the radar missing the real light stuff since it's occurring at the low-levels.

[wxbrad]

That happen with the wedge, the overiding of the the low level cold air causes this light misty, snizzle and the radar never gets it. Our radar is over on the west side and is doing a decent job, going to have to the lower the radar to .5 elevation to get some returns!

Hope to not fry anybody with the radiation!

[Stormsfury]

That happen with the wedge, the overiding of the the low level cold air causes this light misty, snizzle and the radar never gets it. Our radar is over on the west side and is doing a decent job, going to have to the lower the radar to .5 elevation to get some returns!

Hope to not fry anybody with the radiation!

haha ...

[Skywatch_NC]

Updated: 7:05 PM EST on February 15, 2004

Another chance of snow Tuesday...

Tonight:

Rain mixing with sleet...then changing to all snow late this evening. Precipitation ending as brief period of light freezing rain after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches with locally heavier amounts. Temperatures falling below freezing by late evening with lows 26 to 30. Northeast winds around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 100 percent.

Presidents Day:

Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday Night:

Cloudy. Chance of snow toward daybreak. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 30 percent.

Tuesday:

Cloudy. Snow likely...possibly mixed with sleet. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches possible. Highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Tuesday Night:

Cloudy. Chance of snow or flurries early. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40 percent.


Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 5:45 PM EST on February 15, 2004

Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford- Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Franklin-Nash-Wilson-Johnston 545 PM EST sun Feb 15 2004

... Bands of moderate to heavy snow over the northern Piedmont...

... Precipitation transitions to sleet and rain south and east through the Piedmont from Greensboro to Asheboro and Raleigh...

Several bands of snow... with moderate to heavy snowfall rates... will continue to move across the northern half of the Piedmont through 700 PM. The snow will continue from Winston-Salem and Forsyth County east across northern Guilford... northern Alamance... northwest Orange... person... northern Granville... and northern Vance counties. Snowfall rates of one half to one inch per hour will occur in these areas. Travel will become very hazardous as temperatures fall into the upper 20s.

Just to the south of the snow bands... a narrow zone of transition to sleet will continue to affect north Davidson... Guilford... North Randolph... northwest Chatham... Alamance... Durham... northwest Franklin and Warren counties. The sleet will be heaviest from near Lexington and High Point across Greensboro to Burlington... Rougemont... and Warrenton... and will accumulate in these areas. The sleet will gradually become snow by early evening... as this sleet band gradually shifts south and east toward High Rock... Asheboro... Siler City... Durham... and Creedmoor.

To the south and east of the band of sleet... rain mixed with some sleet will fall over Stanly... Montgomery.. Moore... Chatham... lee... wake... Durham... southern Orange... Nash... Halifax... and Wilson counties... with a gradual transition to sleet by mid evening. This includes areas from Albemarle and High Rock... to Troy... Sanford... Raleigh... and Rocky Mount. Temperatures will fall from the mid and upper 30s into the lower 30s by 900 PM.


Winter Weather Statement

Expires 9:27 AM EST on February 16, 2004

Statement as of 3:29 PM EST on February 15, 2004

329 PM EST sun Feb 15 2004

... A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for northern half of central North Carolina this evening continuing through the night...

A vigorous storm system will move northeast across the Carolinas tonight... while an intensifying low pressure center tracks northeast near the Carolina coast. Cold air Rushing in from the north will produce a rain snow and sleet mix before the mixture changes to all snow tonight in the northwest. Further east a bit more sleet is possible before precipitation changes to snow before midnight.

The Winter Storm Warning is roughly along and north of a line from Lexington... Asheboro to Raleigh to Wilson. Snowfall and sleet amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible with the majority falling as snow. These amounts are less than forecast Sunday morning due to the greater amounts of sleet now expected... especially in the east. The heaviest amounts will most likely occur in the northeast although locally heavier amounts are possible in any part of the warning area. The snow will be tapering off from the west... and ending as a period of light freezing rain in The Triad area before midnight... and ending in the Roanoke Rapids and Tarboro areas well before sunrise.

Everyone across central North Carolina is urged to keep abreast of the latest forecasts and weather conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further details or updates. Or view our website at weather.Gov.


Public Information Statement

Statement as of 6:15 PM EST on February 15, 2004

Weather reports as of 300 PM sun February 15 2004.

County time comments -----------------------------------------------------------------

Northwest and northern Piedmont Skywarn spotter reports

Person Roxboro 600 PM light to moderate snow... 1 to 1.5 inches

surfaces... roads slick and covered.

Forsyth 605 PM all snow... 1 to 1.5 inches most areas
Winston-Salem

Davidson 555 PM changed to snow... light accumulations
Lexington north of Lexington

Guilford 550 PM sleet changed to snow - 32 degrees
NW Greensboro

Guilford
Summerfield 550 PM sleet changed to snow... 1/2 inch

Guilford
Carter Grove
600 PM all snow... 1.2 inches.

Granville 555 PM snow northern third... sleet/rain mix
South.

Warren 605pm sleet falling... temp 32... ground
becoming covered.


South and East Piedmont Skywarn reports


Randolph 545 PM rain and sleet mix - 35 degrees.
Asheboro


Stanly 600 PM rain and sleet mix north end of county
Albemarle

Wake 600 PM rain and sleet mix at ncsu - 36 degrees.
Ncsu

Durham 600 PM rain and sleet mix... temp 35 degrees
Durham

Franklin 600 PM rain... occasionally mixed with sleet
Louisburg


Trends... precipitation transitioning to snow in the western Piedmont
southward through Davidson and central Guilford County.

Narrow transition sleet zone is beginning to push southeast...
into central Randolph... southeast Guilford... central Alamance...
north central Durham... central Granville... Vance... and
southern Warren counties.

Rain occasionally mixed with sleet from Troy and Albemarle
east through Robbins... Sanford... Raleigh... Rocky Mount...
and Halifax.

[Skywatch_NC]

Currently 32 and light freezing rain here! Oh joy!

Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 8:03 PM EST on February 15, 2004

Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford- Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Franklin-Nash-Wilson-Johnston 803 PM EST sun Feb 15 2004

... Bands of moderate snow over the northern third of the Piedmont... from Greensboro to Burlington... Roxboro... Henderson and Warrenton...

... Narrow band of accumulating sleet from Hillsborough east to Franklinton and Roanoke Rapids...

The accumulating snow will shift to the north central and northeast Piedmont through 1100 PM. The main band of snow is expected from near Greensboro and Burlington north and east to Hillsborough... Rougemont... Roxboro... Henderson... and Warrenton. Snowfall accumulations of a quarter to as much as three quarters of an inch per hour are expected. This will bring storm total amounts to between 2 and 3 inches by late evening. Local amount of 4 inches are still possible.

In the transition zone from snow to rain... a narrow band of sleet will continue to accumulate to between 1/4 and 1/2 inch from near Siler City northeast to near Durham... Franklinton... and Roanoke Rapids. This sleet is expected to change to snow from northwest to southeast... between 830 and 1000 PM.

In areas from Troy through Robbins... Sanford... Raleigh... Nashville... Wilson... and Rocky Mount... the rain and sleet mix will become all sleet between 830 and 1000 PM. Some accumulations will occur as temperatures fall to 32.

All the precipitation will being to taper off from southwest to northeast during the late evening into the early morning hours.


Public Information Statement

Statement as of 8:35 PM EST on February 15, 2004

County time comments -----------------------------------------------------------------

Northwest and northern Piedmont Skywarn spotter reports

Wake 830 PM rain/sleet mix transitioning to all sleet. Raleigh heavy sleet NW Raleigh. Heavy sleet mixed with rain at ncsu. Temp 32.8 degrees.

Franklin 830 PM heavy snow in Franklinton. Sleet/snow mix in Louisburg.