Gary Gray: Mid-Week Event For The Northeast?

[montrealboy]

http://www.millenniumweather.com/winter/cast2.html

My thinking: To be honest, I'm not really that inclined to go for a call on this one just yet. The potential slow motion of the system (depending how much of a cutoff forms) accentuates the differences in the possibilities. The GFS drives this point home. It provides very heavy snow along a swath in which the UKMET and ECMWF would probably only yield a period of light snow... struggling to reach and inch of two of accumulation. Yet, maintaining realistic expectations on a four to five day forecast, even the UKMET and ECMWF are quite similar to the GFS. So, trying to nail anything down at this point seems like a futile effort.


However, to give you some idea of my thoughts... I'm skeptical of the GFS, given its extreme solution. On the flip side, given the model trends, I'm not sold on the east track of the UKMET/ECMWF either. So, in terms of track and intensity, I suppose I'm leaning towards something generally in line with the GGEM. But, since the GGEM is actually warmer than the GFS (which one might not expect, given the tracks) we need to deal with temperatures as well. Once again, it's really just too early to say anything definitive. However, given that the cold high pressure is pulling offshore, I'm inclined to go with the warmer solution. So, in that regard, I'm going with the GGEM as well. What this adds up to is a result with a rather narrow swath of significant snow, occuring well inland, and predominantly across the Mid-Atlantic. In closing, though, let me re-emphasize that this is a very preliminary estimate. The UKMET, ECMWF, GGEM, and GFS are all RELATIVELY very similar. Each one of them presents a very viable solution, so we'll surely be refining this forecast with time.

[RU848789]

Unfortunately, the models all seem to be taking this out to sea, well south of the I-95 megalopolis, although one could guess that maybe DC and Baltimore will get some from this. Not looking as good for us up in Central NJ and the NYC area. See the latest from Gary (although the NWS is still talking about some snow for us).

http://www.millenniumweather.com/winter/cast2.html

[RU848789]

Sounds like this is a tough one, meteorologically, as everyone has been all over the map on this one, so far, including Mr. Gray. Gary has flip-flopped, based on the models flip-flopping, and now feels a more substantial snow is coming to parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast/New England, espeically east of the I-95 corridor. As he said, he's going with the ETA, "with much trepidation." If he reads this site, I hope he feels better (says he is "quite ill").

His ETA interpretation (since I realized the website automatically updates so one doesn't see the discussion from days before, when trying to look back at what his thinking was earlier) is:

"18Z Mon ETA: The ETA obliterates the dual mid-level structure in its latest runs. As such, it shows a more consolidated mid-level low, allowing for much better deepening at the sfc and aloft. The timing of this is such that the heavy precip does not push any further back to the NW in the central Mid-Atlantic, compared to the previous runs. However, the stronger system aloft does pull the low more up the coast, and the stronger low sends very heavy precip in the coastal NE Mid-Atlantic, far SE NY, and SE New England. Due to mid-level warming on the ETA, most of these areas receiving the heaviest precip do not receive all snow. In fact, over far SE New England much of the precip is mixed or rain. So, this is still not a massive event. Nonetheless, the ETA does have a swath of quite heavy snow, on the order of 4-8" from SE VA northwards through most of the Delmarva, the SE tip of PA, all of NJ except the far NW, NYC and Long Island, and most of SE New England. Precip is heavy enough in Long Island and SE New England to hit the low end of the 4-8" range before precip mixes with or changes to rain. In addition, the coastal Delmarva and SE half of NJ may noly briefly mix with or change to rain. Given the amount of precip in that area, the ETA has 8-12" of snow... at least. "

I hope he - and the ETA - are right, as 4-8" would be a sweet surprise.

http://www.millenniumweather.com/winter/cast2.html

[Chrisant]

This guy (GG) wouldn't commit to waking up in the morning while looking at himself in the mirror. If 8" dropped in his backyard, he'd have a tough time commiting to that.

[Erica]

lol. That's true.