12z GFS...further east, for Tuesday night/Wednesday storm...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Anonymous
The upcoming event for midweek is looking to be a major hit for someone, but right now I don't think any of us west of I-95 should be getting excited just yet. I know Colin is in east central PA and Cheesy is in Howard County MD... the current model runs (GGEM and ECMWF) are showing the sharp cutoff associated with this coastal storm setting up right along or maybe a little east of the I-95 corridor. What this *could* mean if these models are correct is that we sit with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies while BWI-PHL-NYC get decent snows and DOV-ACY and probably RIC get pounded. It would be a close call for DCA itself, but I'm near IAD and I'd get little or nothing... same goes for Howard County, east-central PA, and basically all the northwest suburbs of the big cities. Let's hope this isn't the case.
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Anonymous
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Erica
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brettjrob wrote:The upcoming event for midweek is looking to be a major hit for someone, but right now I don't think any of us west of I-95 should be getting excited just yet. I know Colin is in east central PA and Cheesy is in Howard County MD... the current model runs (GGEM and ECMWF) are showing the sharp cutoff associated with this coastal storm setting up right along or maybe a little east of the I-95 corridor. What this *could* mean if these models are correct is that we sit with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies while BWI-PHL-NYC get decent snows and DOV-ACY and probably RIC get pounded. It would be a close call for DCA itself, but I'm near IAD and I'd get little or nothing... same goes for Howard County, east-central PA, and basically all the northwest suburbs of the big cities. Let's hope this isn't the case.
Nice post. The same thing happened with the December 30, 2000 Nor'easter.
There, we had an extremely sharp cutoff between the accumulating snow, and virtually nothing at all. This storm was a major event for the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. Philadelphia had 8 Inches I think, and New york City, 12 Inches. Very interesting it was.
But also the event this week does not have strong, sharp confluence with it, so I'm not sure whether or not there will be a sharp cutoff to the back edge of the precipitation sheild as what you seem to be saying.
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Anonymous
Erica wrote:brettjrob wrote:The upcoming event for midweek is looking to be a major hit for someone, but right now I don't think any of us west of I-95 should be getting excited just yet. I know Colin is in east central PA and Cheesy is in Howard County MD... the current model runs (GGEM and ECMWF) are showing the sharp cutoff associated with this coastal storm setting up right along or maybe a little east of the I-95 corridor. What this *could* mean if these models are correct is that we sit with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies while BWI-PHL-NYC get decent snows and DOV-ACY and probably RIC get pounded. It would be a close call for DCA itself, but I'm near IAD and I'd get little or nothing... same goes for Howard County, east-central PA, and basically all the northwest suburbs of the big cities. Let's hope this isn't the case.
Nice post. The same thing happened with the December 30, 2000 Nor'easter.
There, we had an extremely sharp cutoff between the accumulating snow, and virtually nothing at all. This storm was a major event for the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. Philadelphia had 8 Inches I think, and New york City, 12 Inches. Very interesting it was.
But also the event this week does not have strong, sharp confluence with it, so I'm not sure whether or not there will be a sharp cutoff to the back edge of the precipitation sheild as what you seem to be saying.
That's one depressing radar image from me... I remember that storm all too well! I wasn't really into looking at the models or anything back then so I had no idea of the screwing I was in for until the very last minute... I was fully expecting the 3-6" (or in some cases 6-10") the forecasters were calling for here right up until Paul Kocin's dreaded line: "this system appears to be developing a little farther north than we expected..." and it was all downhill from there (almost the same thing happened with the coastal low on the DEC 5-6 2003 storm, but it wasn't quite as bad since we had already seen 7" that morning).
You have a good point about the weaker confluence... I'm hoping the cutoff won't be anything like the radar image you posted. But at the same time, based on the model output, it seems very feasible that IAD sees less than an inch while DCA sees 2-4", BWI 4-8", and DOV 8-16" or something like that. Not an incredibly sharp cutoff between 6" and nothing necessarily, but then again, it doesn't take an extreme cutoff to feel like you're getting the shaft
!
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Anonymous
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Chris the Weather Man
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Chris the Weather Man
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