Update and thoughts on potential 1-2 punch for the Carolinas

[Stormsfury]

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My Forecast/Prognostic Discussion)

[wxbrad]

fury,
Looks like the NWS is reading, they just put Winter WX Adv. up for Northern AL. North GA and Upsate SC are next! Maybe a warning???

[Erica]

www.stormsfury1.com

(My Forecast/Prognostic Discussion)

Tonight's 0z GGEM does have the phasing, and develops a closed low as the trough tilts strongly negative, but even still it might be too late for areas northwest of the I-95 corridor. The Surface low doesn't seem to deepen fast enough until it's already pretty far off shore, and tracks southeast of the benchmark.

84 hours




96 hours




108 hours




It is some improvement from the US model soultions which have the system even more suppressed.

Some other things to consider when it comes to the similarity to the January 25, 2000 Nor'easter is the location of the blocking, which in both cases was near Ireland and England. The Polar Vortex is also in a similar position, but there isn't any 50/50 low.

MRF/GFS 500mb height analysis for 0z January 25, 2000


4 Day ECMWF
http://web.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... rt_h96.gif

The PNA ridge doesn't appear to be as amplified this week as what it was during the January 2000 event. But like the GGEM 0z, the 500mb low closes off too late as the trough tilts strongly negative. This might just be too late for areas west of the I-95 corridor to get any significant accumulations.

What may be more appropriate here, is sort of a middle ground between the February 22-24, 1989 event, and the January 2000 Nor'easter, if that's possible.

We need to remember here the primary factors which decide whether or not a major east coast snowstorm will be possible, those three critical things are the location and placement of

1. Polar vortex
2. 50/50 low
3. Blocking height anomaly

Take one of those ingredients out, such as the 50/50 low in this situation, with the already complex nature of the pattern and the chances for a major east coast snowstorm decrease alot. So what we have is the Polar vortex across north canada, the blocking which we would associate with a negative NAO pretty far to the east, almost looking more to me like just western European ridge, and of course we are absent the 50/50 low altogether.

Most major east coast snowstorms, historically speaking occur in a relatively simple pattern, there are exceptions, and january 25, 2000 was one of them. But given the progressive nature of the pattern, which is something that we have seen pretty much all winter, a major event may not be possible.

[Stormsfury]

fury,
Looks like the NWS is reading, they just put Winter WX Adv. up for Northern AL. North GA and Upsate SC are next! Maybe a warning???

LOL!! ...

And ... Excellent discussion, Erica .. In the January 24th-25th, 2000 SECS, the SFC low actually stalled for a short time and WAITED for the H5 vort to catch up and whammo! ... The February 22nd-24th, 1989 event looks similar as well with a meridianal trough setup ... BTW, I did pretty well with that storm with 4" of snow ...

Flow is looking too progressive, but gives potentially the Coastal Carolinas, a rare event ...

Haven't had much time to look over things since I went out and got a RARE opportunity and got to cameo and sing for a live band just up the road tonight ... pictures taken, and hope to have those in a couple of days.

SF

[Erica]

Thanks, and thats great to hear about the little gig you got for tonight.

I don't know if CHS will see anything measurable from the midweek event, snow wise that is. Eventhough it's not looking real great for areas northwest of the I-95 corridor, I'm still not going to abandon the possibility that this event gives January 25, 2000 a run for it, even northwest of the I-95 until the s/w gets out into the plains on Monday.

If the data then still doesn't show much in the way of a track closer to the coast and the benchmark, I'll dismiss it. But eventhough the complex; progressive nature of the pattern is not a favorable thing, it can also give the meadium range models alot of problems. As if they already don't have enough issues But the thing is that until the system gets into the plains, we really won't know for sure. And also the RAOB/UPA coverage is much more complete across the plains as compared to upstream across the Pacific.