the 1-2 punch...Reflections on the south, and an anniversary

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good afternoon folks. Lots to cover here this afternoon as we'll see a 1-2 punch for the Middle Atlantic States. All areas from North Carolina northward through the megalopolis are urged to pay special attention to this 1-2 punch. While the first system is only expected to impact North Carolina and southern and southeastern Virginia tonight, the second system on Tuesday-Wednesday could potentially impact a larger area. This could include the entire megalopolis. Details are more sketchy about this midweek system. But folks in the northeast and Mid Atlantic, be on the lookout.

Shifting our focus a second on what has occurred from system #1. Some incredible snow totals from the southern United States. In Dallas, 3" of snow accumulated Friday night with over 4" in Tarrant County. This made this the biggest single storm snowfall the big D has seen in over 26 years. You have to go back to February 17th 1978 to see totals of over 4 inches just like yesterday in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex. The total for DFW on February 17, 1978 was 7.5 inches. It was fun to play in, not fun to drive in. The following are other snow totals from the southern United States from Texas to Arkansas.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1154 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2004

...UPDATED SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...

THESE ARE SOME UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
1145 AM CST.

COUNTY AMOUNT TIME REMARKS

TARRANT 4.2 INCHES 835 AM CST NWS OFFICE N FT WORTH
TARRANT 3.5 INCHES 845 AM CST NWS EMPLOYEE IN S ARLINGTON
DALLAS 3.0 INCHES 858 AM CST DFW OBSERVER
CORYELL 2.0 INCHES 900 AM CST CO OP OBSERVER IN EVANT
TARRANT 5.0 INCHES 925 AM CST NWS EMPLOYEE IN SAGINAW
DALLAS 3.0 INCHES 925 AM CST NWS EMPLOYEE IN DALLAS
MONTAGUE 3.5 INCHES 950 AM CST SHERIFFS OFFICE IN BOWIE
TARRANT 5.5 INCHES 1000 AM CST NWS EMPLOYEE GRAPEVINE
COLLIN 3.2 INCHES 1020 AM CST
RAINS 3.0 INCHES 1041 AM CST SHERIFFS OFFICE IN EMORY
TARRANT 4.0 INCHES 1050 AM CST NWS EMPLOYEE IN KELLER


COUNTY LOCATION SNOWFALL TOTAL

MONTAGUE NOCONA 5 1/2 INCHES
TARRANT GRAPEVINE 5 1/2 INCHES
TARRANT SAGINAW 5 INCHES


OKLAHOMA

...ATOKA COUNTY...

STRINGTOWN.............6.0 INCHES
ATOKA..................5.0 INCHES
ATOKA 7 SE.............4.0 INCHES

...BRYAN COUNTY...

DURANT.................8.0 INCHES
BOKCHITO 4 NNE.........6.0 INCHES
LIBERTY................5.0 INCHES

...CARTER COUNTY...

HEALDTON...............3.0 INCHES
ARDMORE................2.0 INCHES

...COAL COUNTY...

CENTRAHOMA 2 ESE.......5.0 INCHES
COALGATE...............3.5 INCHES

...COMANCHE COUNTY...

CHATTANOOGA 3 NE.......3.0 INCHES
LAWTON.................0.5 INCH

...COTTON COUNTY...

RANDLETT 4 S...........6.0 INCHES
WALTERS................4.0 INCHES

...GARVIN COUNTY...

ELMORE CITY 4 NW.......1.5 INCHES
PAULS VALLEY...........1.0 INCH

...GRADY COUNTY...

RUSH SPRINGS 6 ESE.....2.0 INCHES
ALEX 4 S...............TRACE

...GREER COUNTY...

MANGUM.................1.0 INCH

...HARMON COUNTY...

VINSON 3 WNW...........2.0 INCHES
HOLLIS 5 E.............1.8 INCHES

...HUGHES COUNTY...

STUART 3 S.............0.5 INCH

...JACKSON COUNTY...

ALTUS..................3.0 INCHES
HEADRICK...............2.5 INCHES

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...

WAURIKA................5.0 INCHES
GRADY 2 ENE............4.0 INCHES

...JOHNSTON COUNTY...

TISHOMINGO.............6.0 INCHES
MILL CREEK 5 NE........5.0 INCHES

...KIOWA COUNTY...

SNYDER 1 N.............3.0 INCHES
HOBART.................TRACE

...LOVE COUNTY...

LEON 3 S...............5.0 INCHES
MARIETTA...............2.0 INCHES

...MARSHALL COUNTY...

MADILL.................4.0 INCHES
LEBANON 6 NNW..........4.0 INCHES

...MURRAY COUNTY...

SULPHUR................2.0 INCHES

...PONTOTOC COUNTY...

FITTSTOWN 2 W..........3.0 INCHES
FITZHUGH 2 NE..........TRACE

...STEPHENS COUNTY...

DUNCAN.................2.0 INCHES
LOCO...................1.6 INCHES

...TILLMAN COUNTY...

FREDERICK..............4.0 INCHES

---------------------------------

WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

...ARCHER COUNTY...

ARCHER CITY............2.0 INCHES

...BAYLOR COUNTY...

SEYMOUR................3.0 INCHES

...CLAY COUNTY...

CHARLIE................5.5 INCHES
HENRIETTA..............4.0 INCHES

...FOARD COUNTY...

CROWELL................5.0 INCHES

...HARDEMAN COUNTY...

QUANAH 2 SW............7.5 INCHES
CHILLICOTHE 2 N........6.0 INCHES
QUANAH 13 S............5.0 INCHES
GOODLETT 15 N..........4.0 INCHES

...KNOX COUNTY...

BENJAMIN...............2.0 INCHES

...WICHITA COUNTY...

SHEPPARD AFB...........5.5 INCHES
BURKBURNETT............4.5 INCHES

...WILBARGER COUNTY...

VERNON.................4.0 INCHES
VERNON 8 S.............4.0 INCHES
HARROLD 1 E............3.0 INCHES


ALL AMOUNTS ARE IN INCHES...

POLK COUNTY
BIG FORK 4
BOGG SPRINGS 5.7
MENA 1
VANDERVOORT 5
PIKE COUNTY
GLENWOOD 1.25
SALINE COUNTY 4
HOT SPRING COUNTY 2-3
GARLAND COUNTY 4
MONTGOMERY COUNTY 4-5
CLARK COUNTY 3
DALLAS COUNTY 4
GRANT COUNTY 2
OUACHITA COUNTY
BEARDEN 3
CALHOUN COUNTY 4
BRADLEY COUNTY 1-1.5
DREW COUNTY 0.2-0.5
LINCOLN COUNTY LESS THAN 1
JEFFERSON COUNTY LESS THAN 1
DESHA COUNTY TRACE
PRAIRIE COUNTY TRACE
YELL COUNTY TRACE
ARKANSAS COUNTY
DE WITT 0
STUTTGART TRACE
LOGAN COUNTY
PARIS TRACE
MOUNTAINS 2-3
PERRY COUNTY 1.5-2
SCOTT COUNTY 2
FAULKNER COUNTY 1


Some impressive totals as you can see. However this storm is not done producing significant winter weather. In fact, the tidewater of Virginia south and west through north central and western North Carolina are now under winter storm warnings. The warnings include the cities of Winston Salem, Ashville, Raleigh, NC, Norfolk, and Chesapeake, VA. A winter weather advisory is up for Newport News and from Virginia Beach south through northeastern North Carolina only to affect immediate coastal areas. Inland areas across north central and western North Carolina area under winter storm warnings. A winter storm warning is issued when significant winter weather is anticipated to occur within the next 24 hours or is immient. A winter weather advisory is up when winter weather in the form of snow, ice, blowing snow, or dangerous wind chills are likely. In this case, it'll be snow and blowing snow, but snow accumulations won't be as significant. Folks driving tonight across north central and western North Carolina and into southeast Virginia need to use extreme caution. Best bet is to stay off the roads tonight.

The following is a general breakdown city by city on expected snow totals and the timing of this. Note that there will be a mixture of precip everywhere at the beginning of this event. But this mixture will change over to snow as temps cool below freezing from north to south overnight. The question is how does that wintry mixture affect snow accumulations, see below for the answer!

For tonight through early Monday AM

Cities projected snow totals

Richmond, VA: Dusting
NW of Richmond: nothing
SE of Richmond: accumulating snow

Williamsburg, VA: 1-3"
Newport News, VA: 2-5"
Norfolk, VA: 4-8"
Chesapeake, VA: 4-8"
Suffolk, Virginia: 4-7"
Virginia Beach, VA:3-6"
Sandbridge, VA: 2-4"
Elizabeth City, NC: 1-3"
Kitty Hawk, NC: 1-2"

For late today and tonight

Cities projected snow totals

Ashville, NC: 2-5"
Winston Salem: 3-6"
Greensboro, NC: 3-6"
Raleigh, NC: 4-6"
Durham, NC: 4-6"


In addition I got some record snowstorm stats for you folks today. The following are the top 15 snowstorms ever to affect Norfolk, VA. Notice if you will how the top 2 and top 15th snowstorm of all time occurred less than a wek from each other back in 1989. '89 was the last really good record setting winter for the Virginia tidewater area.


Norfolk, Virginia

rank date snow total

#1: Dec 27-28, 1892: 18.6"
#2: February 17-19, 1989: 15.4"
#3: March 1-2, 1980: 13.7"
#4: February 11-13, 1899: 13.5"
#5: February 6-7, 1980: 12.4"
#6. Dec 11-12, 1958: 11.4"
#7: Dec 2-3, 1896: 11.0"
#8. March 2, 1927: 11.0"
#9. Feb 6-7, 1936: 11.0"
#10. January 19, 1893: 9.8"
#11. February 9-10, 1948: 9.7"
#12. January 26-27, 1966: 9.4"
#13. January 8-9, 1973: 9.1"
#14. Dec 22-23, 1935: 9.0"
#15. February 23-14, 1989: 9.0

If part 1 wasn't bad enough for drivers, part 2 is expected to occur Tuesday through Tuesday night from northern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. Another round of significant snow is possible in the tidewater area and down into southern Virginia and northern North carolina. The bigger question is what occurs after that on Wednesday. Will this developing coastal entity hug the northeast and mid atlantic coast or will it move further out to sea?? That's the toughest question. However should the northern branch of the jet become better amplified and phase with the southern branch, there could be big problems late Tuesday night through Wednesday for the megalopolis. The exact details on precipitation amounts and how this storm will impact tide levels along the coast remains uncertain. However folks from North Carolina and Virginia northward through the megalopolis are urged to keep a close eye on this storm Tuesday through Wednesday. If everything comes together, the potential for a significant winter storm in the form of a strong nor' easter is possible. More details on this later.

Today through Tuesday is the one yar anniversary of the Presidents Day storm. Record snows fell in Baltimore and Boston with widespread amounts of over 2 feet of snow. Some places across northern Maryland and northern Virginia saw 30 inches on the level. The highest total was in Keysers Ridge in Garrett County, MD where 44 inches of snow fell.

Meanwhile Kentucky and portions of North Carolina were paralized with a crippling icestorm. The second half of the daytona 500 was rained out and cancelled because of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This year's Daytona 500 should go without a hitch.

Have a good afternoon

Jim

[verycoolnin]

There's an outside chance this Tuesday's system could crack the top 15 for Norfolk.

[Stephanie]

Great review as always Jim!

[WXBUFFJIM]

There's an outside chance this Tuesday's system could crack the top 15 for Norfolk.

That's why I specificly highlighted the record because the top 14 and 15th storm maybe in jeopardy.

Jim

[thstorm87]

I know its early yet, but im confused with everything im hearing. Im hearing this will be a coastal storm, with not much inland. My question is how far inland? I live in the far ne part of philly, what type of storm does it look like at this point?

[verycoolnin]

That's why I specificly highlighted the record because the top 14 and 15th storm maybe in jeopardy.

woops, didn't see that

My question is how far inland? I live in the far ne part of philly, what type of storm does it look like at this point?

total liquid precip for Tuesday's storm

[therock1811]

Meanwhile Kentucky and portions of North Carolina were paralized with a crippling icestorm.

You got that right...I was right in the thick of it...about 5" snow, and 1/2-3/4" ice...power out for 6 hours Saturday the 15th...subsequent outages thru that following Monday...horrific storm to say the least! Great analysis Jim!

[therock1811]

Meanwhile Kentucky and portions of North Carolina were paralized with a crippling icestorm.

You got that right...I was right in the thick of it...about 5" snow, and 1/2-3/4" ice...power out for 6 hours Saturday the 15th...subsequent outages thru that following Monday...horrific storm to say the least! Great analysis Jim!

[ColdFront77]

This made this the biggest single storm snowfall the big D has seen in over 26 years. You have to go back to February 17th 1978 to see totals of over 4 inches just like
yesterday in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex.

Interesting, only 12 days after the Blizzard of '78 affected New England.