Sterling SPS

[Cheesy_Poofs]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
130 PM EST MON FEB 16 2004

DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ036>042-050>057-171000-
ALBEMARLE VA-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CULPEPER VA-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-
FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK MD-GREENE VA-HARFORD MD-HOWARD MD-
KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-MADISON VA-MONTGOMERY MD-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PRINCE GEORGES MD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE
DELMARVA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW COULD BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

IF ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WILL LATER NEED TO BE ISSUED...THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS ARE ST. MARYS AND CALVERT COUNTIES.

$$
ABW/SMZ

[yoda]

Yeah I saw that, but I'm sorry, they are going to be SO WRONG!!

(unless I bust of course, but I don't think I will)

[Cheesy_Poofs]

I think they may be a little conservative with two busts last week..the first one being the last tuesday storm, in which they were calling for some pretty good ice accum. and had warnings/advisorys up...that turned out to be a bust. ( NO ONE got enough ice for warning criteria...and it was mostly rain. ) Then they slightly downplayed the thursday night event...as many areas had ice accum. in the warning catagory....but no warnings were issued. ( Another bust. )

[yoda]

Do you think we will get watches tonight??

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Do you think we will get watches tonight??

Nope.

[Heady Guy]

I would be very suprised if the DC-Balt-PHL-NYC area got more then and inch or two. This is not for us this time

[yoda]

AND WHY NOT? 3 models (GFS, ETA, GGEM) show us in snow of at least 2"!

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Yoda- 2" is not watch/warning criteria. It is advisory criteria. BUT-- If the 18z and 00z models shift a little bit to the west, then I can watches coming out. But right now, I don't.

[Anonymous]

I think LWX is doing the right thing at this point -- there's no reason to get people excited just yet. If there are any westward trends with tonight's models they may have to consider watches for the southeastern areas of the CWA tomorrow morning, though.

I don't know what to make of this storm. The models certainly aren't showing anything of significance from I-95 west, and only minor accumulations of snow for the big cities and their immediate eastern suburbs, but the changes from the 00z to 12z runs of both the GFS and ETA seem to indicate the possibility that things are going to get interesting. The 12z GGEM shows the best scenario of the models right now, with a 547dm upper-level low between RIC and ORF at 48hrs, resulting in some pretty heavy snowfall along the immediate coastline over the Delmarva and southern Jersey. If the trough were to go negative-tilt a little sooner and get the low to track just a hair closer to the coast it would be big for the I-95 cities, and if it were to be significantly west of that track (100 miles) it would probably mean a major snowstorm all the way up the I-95 corridor with appreciable amounts a good bit west of it.

I'm not at all ready to throw in the towel yet, especially considering the precedent set by JAN 25 2000 on this type of setup. In fact, for better or for worse, I'll probably still be furiously monitoring the radar and satellite imagery tomorrow night even if the models have it unanimously out to sea .

[yoda]

I know.... GFS does have QPF values of near .5 for D.C.....

We shall see!

[mdguy25]

I think LWX is doing the right thing at this point -- there's no reason to get people excited just yet. If there are any westward trends with tonight's models they may have to consider watches for the southeastern areas of the CWA tomorrow morning, though.

I don't know what to make of this storm. The models certainly aren't showing anything of significance from I-95 west, and only minor accumulations of snow for the big cities and their immediate eastern suburbs, but the changes from the 00z to 12z runs of both the GFS and ETA seem to indicate the possibility that things are going to get interesting. The 12z GGEM shows the best scenario of the models right now, with a 547dm upper-level low between RIC and ORF at 48hrs, resulting in some pretty heavy snowfall along the immediate coastline over the Delmarva and southern Jersey. If the trough were to go negative-tilt a little sooner and get the low to track just a hair closer to the coast it would be big for the I-95 cities, and if it were to be significantly west of that track (100 miles) it would probably mean a major snowstorm all the way up the I-95 corridor with appreciable amounts a good bit west of it.

I'm not at all ready to throw in the towel yet, especially considering the precedent set by JAN 25 2000 on this type of setup. In fact, for better or for worse, I'll probably still be furiously monitoring the radar and satellite imagery tomorrow night even if the models have it unanimously out to sea .

Yea not much in favor of sig. snowfall for the I-95 area but there is the hint of a trend most notably the GGEM.. Models are everywhere yet not 1 bring a big hit that far west which isn't good this close to the event

[yoda]

Interesting to say the least... 18z runs will be watched very closely....

BUT THE 0z RUNS WILL BE THE KEY!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

But for right now, the heaviest snow is projected for southern Maryland from Annapolis and DC south and east. Even Ocean City will likely get snow out of this. I won't be surprised given the latest models how there maybe nothing from DC and Baltimore north and west given the sharp cutoff Sterling is talking about. The models pinpoint this too given the rapid decrease in QPF from southern Maryland up to Baltimore. That's why totals could approach 3-6" for southern Maryland and nothing north and west of Baltimore with maybe a dusting between Baltimore and DC. If this system tracks further south and east than progged, then all of Maryland would be left alone. If this system tracks more north and west than currently progged, then DC and Baltimore could be in the heaviest snow. All it takes is that slight shift in the track to make or break this storm. The other key aspect is the fact the air will likely be cold enough to support mostly snow should that occur in DC and Baltimore. Although sleet could mix in potentially too.

Jim

[yoda]

Agree with your reasoning there, Jim.... but I think this MAY be the storm for us here in DC!

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's definitely a close call. But should everything come together, this storm could be as big or bigger than the January 25th-26th and 27th storm when 5.7" of snow fell at Reagan National. There was ice mixed in also. Baltimore meanwhile had 6.7" in that storm. Nothing has accumulated since.

The bottom line is if this comes together for DC, Baltimore, or both areas, then we're talking.

I'm sure you all remember last year at this time with all that heavy snow. It was 15 degrees at this time last year with heavy snow.

Jim