18z ETA

[Anonymous]

Jeb, I'm as shocked and dumbfounded as you are. The 18z ETA showed nothing for something like four+ runs and now this, i'm not overly optomistic. Sure, I would love for this to happen. The GGEM had something like this for a very consistant run and I think the models are now catching on. I feel very confident that there will be in excess of at least 8 inches of snow, NO MIXING, that's the best part! I think I may get a snowblower after hearing this!

You'd better get the snowblower quickly, many people in your region will have the exact same idea, all at the same time.
The guidance seems to point to a system that will develop off the Carolina coast then move NNE. The track will be such that VA will not see snow (not that we did not see that all along), but if you live in DE, NJ or LI you better get that snow blower or shovel NOW. Also hit the stores and purchase sensible amounts of food.

WOW, I envy you. Yep Woodbridge has been in a snow bubble for a while and will continue inside the bubble, probably for the rest of this winter.

But you are going to get CLOBBERED, and I DO mean that in all Capital Letters LOL!!!

WOW DUDE!!!! Highs in the 50s or not, YOU will be digging out through at least early March!!! Then you get clobbered AGAIN in early March!!!


WOW is all I can say...................................................................



-Jeb

[Erica]

There probably won't be that sharp of a cutoff as the ETA is indicating since there isn't really strong confluence, and secondly, the ETA has a reputation for developing super tight precipitation gradients even in overrunning situations where a warm front is involved, those instead usually have a gradual step down in accumulations and QPF.

The trend wetter can't be ignored either, or the similarity to January 25-26, 2000 at 42 hours.

[Erica]

I'll have a map out later tonight for everone once I have a chance to look at the new ECMWF and 0z ETA.

[Anonymous]

There probably won't be that sharp of a cutoff as the ETA is indicating since there isn't really strong confluence, and secondly, the ETA has a reputation for developing super tight precipitation gradients even in overrunning situations where a warm front is involved, those instead usually have a gradual step down in accumulations and QPF.

The trend wetter can't be ignored either, or the similarity to January 25-26, 2000 at 42 hours.

Great post. Although I'm far from being in the bullseye it gives me hope that I may see 1-3" if the cutoff is more gradual as you seem to think. And wow, I knew this had some similarities to JAN 2000, but now that I look at the 500mb map you posted it's eerily similar in many ways. I wouldn't mind a repeat of that... 12" was on the ground less than 18 hours after forecasts for 1-2" !

[Anonymous]

Does this forecast hold true. Does it seem likely that the coast will get 12+. i just feel that I'm going to bust with my forecast.

[Anonymous]

There probably won't be that sharp of a cutoff as the ETA is indicating since there isn't really strong confluence, and secondly, the ETA has a reputation for developing super tight precipitation gradients even in overrunning situations where a warm front is involved, those instead usually have a gradual step down in accumulations and QPF.

The trend wetter can't be ignored either, or the similarity to January 25-26, 2000 at 42 hours.

Great post. Although I'm far from being in the bullseye it gives me hope that I may see 1-3" if the cutoff is more gradual as you seem to think. And wow, I knew this had some similarities to JAN 2000, but now that I look at the 500mb map you posted it's eerily similar in many ways. I wouldn't mind a repeat of that... 12" was on the ground less than 18 hours after forecasts for 1-2" !

If brettjrob gets 1 to 3, then it stands to reason that since I am farther east, I should be able to eke out 2 to 4, with emphasis on the 2 inches.



-Jeb

[Erica]

There probably won't be that sharp of a cutoff as the ETA is indicating since there isn't really strong confluence, and secondly, the ETA has a reputation for developing super tight precipitation gradients even in overrunning situations where a warm front is involved, those instead usually have a gradual step down in accumulations and QPF.

The trend wetter can't be ignored either, or the similarity to January 25-26, 2000 at 42 hours.

Great post. Although I'm far from being in the bullseye it gives me hope that I may see 1-3" if the cutoff is more gradual as you seem to think. And wow, I knew this had some similarities to JAN 2000, but now that I look at the 500mb map you posted it's eerily similar in many ways. I wouldn't mind a repeat of that... 12" was on the ground less than 18 hours after forecasts for 1-2" !

It's what I'm really worried about, since the models didn't handle that event well either, until it was already underway. As far as the similarities go, i'm looking at two three things, the first is the position of the block, which in both cases was back near England, the second is the Polar vortex, in both cases it was in a climatological position and intensity, and third there was energy coming into the western part of the country, what effect that might have, I'm really not to sure right now, but it was very interesting.

[newguy]

what was the outcome of January 25-26, 2000?

[JQ Public]

what was the outcome of January 25-26, 2000?

alot of snow for me!

[Stormsfury]

what was the outcome of January 25-26, 2000?

Raleigh 16.3" of snow in 4 hours, and 20.3" total ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Wint ... CSnow.html

They didn't call it the Carolina Crusher for nothing ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=25078

[verycoolnin]

We only picked up 8in of snow compared to Raleigh.

[Chris the Weather Man]

IF It trends north and west, can you say, Jackpot for N NJ?