Coast With The Most

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Anonymous

Coast With The Most

#1 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 16, 2004 6:33 pm

I read many posts that from Deleware to Long Island will see the most. I want to know hom much? I have heard many reports, all different. I want to know what the real experts here say.
0 likes   

Anonymous

#2 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 16, 2004 6:36 pm

With this system, The Coast is where it is at. You want to see some snow, get in your car, and head east to the coast----That is where the snow will be. I expect a few flurries from this late tomorrow night with an outside chance of a coating. Then warming temps into the weekend with a much better chance of steady rains on Saturday and highs in the upper 50s.


-Jeb
0 likes   

Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 16, 2004 6:39 pm

How much do you think. I will avoid asking for a specific location, as it got me in trouble before, bet a general forecast for the coast, Deleware to Long Island.
0 likes   

User avatar
Colin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5086
Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2003 4:17 pm
Location: Catasauqua, PA
Contact:

#4 Postby Colin » Mon Feb 16, 2004 7:00 pm

3-6", more south, less up into the NJ coast.
0 likes   

Anonymous

#5 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 16, 2004 7:10 pm

1evans, I think this is a very complex system and even though it's only 24-30 hours away, the specifics are very much still up in the air. Relatively small shifts in the track could make the difference between a 2-4" and 12-24" storm for your area. As Erica mentioned in another thread, this has lots of similarities to the January 2000 system where NONE of the models were even close to showing the correct solution till the dumping was already underway. I'm not saying we're likely to see a carbon copy of that storm, but given the similar nature of the pattern and the small differences in the timing of phasing that can make a world of difference in the surface weather, I think it's too early to make a call on accumulations for any location. My advice would be to expect at least 3 inches of snow where you live, but keep watching as it could end up being far, far more than that. Joe Bastardi has you in the 3-6" accumulation zone for a professional reference point... but he is strongly hinting that amounts could exceed his call.
0 likes   

User avatar
Erica
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 168
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2004 2:45 am
Location: Daytona Beach, FL
Contact:

#6 Postby Erica » Mon Feb 16, 2004 8:35 pm

brettjrob wrote:1evans, I think this is a very complex system and even though it's only 24-30 hours away, the specifics are very much still up in the air. Relatively small shifts in the track could make the difference between a 2-4" and 12-24" storm for your area. As Erica mentioned in another thread, this has lots of similarities to the January 2000 system where NONE of the models were even close to showing the correct solution till the dumping was already underway. I'm not saying we're likely to see a carbon copy of that storm, but given the similar nature of the pattern and the small differences in the timing of phasing that can make a world of difference in the surface weather, I think it's too early to make a call on accumulations for any location. My advice would be to expect at least 3 inches of snow where you live, but keep watching as it could end up being far, far more than that. Joe Bastardi has you in the 3-6" accumulation zone for a professional reference point... but he is strongly hinting that amounts could exceed his call.


The position of the block, lack of a 50/50 low, and the movement of the high would all suggest a track closer to the coast. The last time we had a similar sequence of events was January 2000.

This may be one of the situations where if you can predict the track of the high, you can do the same for the low. I'm not sure if it will be a carbon copy of it either, but there is the chance given how similar the synoptic pattern is, that it can get close to that.
0 likes   

Anonymous

#7 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 16, 2004 8:37 pm

still no changeover, except south eastern NJ.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests