Carolinas event ... Getting very interesting ...

[Stormsfury]

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My Forecast/Prognostic Discussion)

[Weather4Life23]

Nice discussion SF. I appreciate your services!!! What are your thoughts for the RDU vicinity in NC? I cant believe it is less than 24 hours out and there is still a huge amount of uncertainty. Thanks in advance

[Stormsfury]

Nice discussion SF. I appreciate your services!!! What are your thoughts for the RDU vicinity in NC? I cant believe it is less than 24 hours out and there is still a huge amount of uncertainty. Thanks in advance

That's exactly the problem, a lot of uncertainties ... and the GFS is probably the most uncertain in regards to the development of the SFC low ... the 500mb heights look fine, and has trended stronger with the 500mb low (which CLOSES OFF over RDU at 42 hours) ...



IF the trends continue stronger, this would imply a closer to the coast, and more pronounced SECS threat (but NOT historic) ... particularly from RDU-BOS ...

Things finally get exciting ...

[Anonymous]

Hope you are right but I am just expecting some light snow.

It would be nice to have a good storm for once this season but as I said earlier in another thread, not every winter will be like 2002-2003 in N VA.


-Jeb

[mdguy25]

Great Discussion SF.. BTW what time does the new GGEm usually roll in?

[Stormsfury]

Great Discussion SF.. BTW what time does the new GGEm usually roll in?

Generally I get to see it around 10:45 pm EST ... (from the Canadian Weather Office)...

SF

[Erica]

The low closes off at both 500mb and 700mb which should cause a nice deformation zone to develop, and stronger vertical motions wrapping around the back side of the surface low, the GFS though has some higher RH extending back across the Carolinas and Virginia, but the best negative omegas are well out to sea.



The GFS probably is underdoing the intensity of the vertical motions which would be stronger in the LFQ of the upper level jet off the coast. The GFS is hinting at a coupled jet pattern, between the RRQ of the jet south of Nova Scotia, and the LFQ of the speed maximum east of the Outer Banks, which is great for intense upward motions, but it's too far offshore according to the GFS. That may be one of the reasons why it's focusing the best UVM offshore.

[Stormsfury]

One of the things though with the GFS is that it's notoriously horrible with ECS (East Coast Snowstorms) by not catching onto them until inside of 24 hours sometimes, and with this setup is just NOW beginning to show the potential. Also, incredible just how it's overeagerness to destroy wedges, which also wreak havoc with the final outcome (in Miller B scenarios especially)...

This setup easily could be the classic increase the snowfall potential even during the event ...

SF

[Erica]

Here's a great example of an excellent coupled jet pattern from the January 6, 2002 interior northeast event.



Most of Easten Pennsylvania was between the RRQ of the speed maximum over new england, and the LFQ of the maximum over the Mid Atlantic region.

This corresponded to the development of strong vertical motions through a deep layer of the atmosphere as we can tell from the maps and cross section below.



(frontogenesis - black, Negative omega - dashed purple)



(Relative humidity - black, Omega - purple)

In both the cross-section and map, the coupled jet structure lead to the development of intense vertical motions over a wide area of pennsylvania, and New York state, and a deep layer of the atmosphere (as seen in the cross-section).

[Erica]

One of the things though with the GFS is that it's notoriously horrible with ECS (East Coast Snowstorms) by not catching onto them until inside of 24 hours sometimes, and with this setup is just NOW beginning to show the potential. Also, incredible just how it's overeagerness to destroy wedges, which also wreak havoc with the final outcome (in Miller B scenarios especially)...

This setup easily could be the classic increase the snowfall potential even during the event ...

SF

The GFS (at that time MRF) had January 2000 passing harmlessly out to sea.

[Stormsfury]

I remember Jan 2000 very well ... I was with my father, my ex-g/f, and we were staying indoors with thunderstorms that afternoon (before I went to work) with temperatures in the mid-30's and heavy rain ... deeper moisture left the region, but a secondary area of moisture in the developing commahead, brought sleet then snow ... then a hodge-podge of ZR/IP/SN which ended up amounting to 2" that night here ...

The event caught EVERYONE but myself offguard ... but only b/c I watched trends in the radars/satellite ... I didn't know where to get model data at that time ...

[Anonymous]

If this is Jan 25 2000 event you are referring to.............................



I remember that just fine, even tho it was 4 years ago. I had this crummy supermarket job I hated worse than a milquetoast winter. I had just come home after a long day on that job. It was 10pm at night, Jan 24 and the wind was coming up, as I stood outside a local WalMart. I remember thinking, WTH? There ain't no front anywhere nearby!! Where the H is this wind comin' from? Then I heard someone say it was gonna snow, and I said from where, and the person said, A storm is moving north and I realized that we were going to get an unexpected snowfall and I got into my car and BLASTED my Rocky IV CD soundtrack FULL FRICKIN' BLAST !!!!!

WOW the next morning we had 12.5 inches of fresh snow!!!! Yeah Jan 25, 2000 we got a FOOT of fresh snow from a storm that was supposed to move east off the coast!!!




But I know this is gonna be different. The COAST will get this, and Wednesday the NJ/LI Coasts will be severely CRUSHED by this storm we have coming tomorrow into Thursday.

I eagerly expect Flurries in Woodbridge and no more. This is NO Carolina Crusher. I refuse to hype or to become over excited about this storm which is of course going to slam NJ BAD with 30 inches of wind-driven snow.

-Jeb

[Erica]

I remember Jan 2000 very well ... I was with my father, my ex-g/f, and we were staying indoors with thunderstorms that afternoon (before I went to work) with temperatures in the mid-30's and heavy rain ... deeper moisture left the region, but a secondary area of moisture in the developing commahead, brought sleet then snow ... then a hodge-podge of ZR/IP/SN which ended up amounting to 2" that night here ...

The event caught EVERYONE but myself offguard ... but only b/c I watched trends in the radars/satellite ... I didn't know where to get model data at that time ...

Yea, It was incredible.

[Wannabewxman79]

Yeah that was funny. The local mets called for a couple of inches then increased to 4-6 and then finally as those huge flakes fell they said 15 inches of snow. And they still turned out to be wrong as we got 20+ inches of snow here in Raleigh. Boy was that a fun couple of days.

[JQ Public]

that morning when i went to school they said flurries!

[Stormsfury]

That's exactly the point ... a lot of the Carolina Coastal Snow Events aren't progged by the model guidance until the event is already unfolding and by far, the hardest to gauge ...

Furthermore, the model that usually does well with winter weather events in the Carolinas, historically, is the GGEM and RGEM ... odd, eh?

SF

[NCWisher]

The radar is looking very interesting...

[Anonymous]

The radar is looking very interesting...

Yes, it is........this radar shows precip already blossoming over North Carolina, among other places, while the upper-level low is still back over Missouri/Arkansas.
I am beginning to wonder if some forecasts will be changed by about 11am this morning?



-Jeb

[Wannabewxman79]

What in the hell is going on? Stream of moisture already? Storm you getting any precip or is it just virga?

edit: removed bad link

[NCWisher]

I can't stop hitting the reload button...that area of precip is growing by the minute!