LWX- WSWATCH for SOUTHERN MD

[Cheesy_Poofs]

WINTER STORM WATCH
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
707 PM EST MON FEB 16 2004

MDZ016>018-VAZ057-171000-
CALVERT MD-CHARLES MD-KING GEORGE VA-ST. MARYS MD-

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND FOR TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

SNOW IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SNOW WOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE STORM IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION WITH THIS
STORM AT THE MOMENT. AND THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND WILL RECEIVE. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED BECAUSE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIVE OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS AS THE STORM NEARS
THE AREA.

$$
STRONG

[Erica]

OKX should issue a watch for their coastal zones on Long Island and Southern Connectiuct, and PHL should do the same for the next series up from where they have the current watch. BOX should also be considering watches for the Cape and Nantucket.

[Colin]

Nah, Mt. Holly won't do anything.

[Erica]

I didn't say they would, but if I was the forercaster at any one of those officies, that's that I would do based on the trends in the 18z ETA and GFS, eventhough I don't really like to change forecasts based on them.

[Anonymous]

They suck, always wait until the last minute, or after the storm. Looks like a thumbs up for a good snow day this Wednesday

[WXBUFFJIM]

I'll tell you what ladies and gentlemen, all it takes is a 50 mile track further west and northwest to greatly impact the current forecast. If you can recall, NWS called for much less snow in January 25th, 2000, but after the fact Baltimore received 1-2 feet of snow with strong winds and drifting snow. All it takes is that slight shift to the left of the current track. We gotta watch this carefully up and down I 95 from DC to Boston Wednesday morning through Thursday.

The winter storm watches include the following cities and locations..

Richmond, St Marys City, Salisbury, Pax River NAS, Salisbury, Cambridge, Dover, Georgetown, Atlantic City and Cape May.

This storm needs to be watched very closely along I 95, that's the bottom line here!!
Jim

[Anonymous]

I'll tell you what ladies and gentlemen, all it takes is a 50 mile track further west and northwest to greatly impact the current forecast. If you can recall, NWS called for much less snow in January 25th, 2000, but after the fact Baltimore received 1-2 feet of snow with strong winds and drifting snow. All it takes is that slight shift to the left of the current track. We gotta watch this carefully up and down I 95 from DC to Boston Wednesday morning through Thursday.

The winter storm watches include the following cities and locations..

Richmond, St Marys City, Salisbury, Pax River NAS, Salisbury, Cambridge, Dover, Georgetown, Atlantic City and Cape May.

This storm needs to be watched very closely along I 95, that's the bottom line here!!
Jim

I do not know what County lies to our East, of Prince William County VA folks, but I am beginning to realize something that did not quite crystallize in my mind until JIM spelled it out in this thread.

IF (And I do emphasize IF) The TRACK so much as TWITCHES a whisker NW, EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY where I reside (I live in Dale City/Woodbridge, 5 scant miles west of I-95), will stand to get all of 3 inches of snow, instead of the 30 percent CHC of light flurries we are under right now through Wed morn.


Hmm...........


Nah........this ain't our winter here in Woodbridge. I gotta face FACTS. The admittedly unpleasant facts are that the NC/VA/DE/NJ/NY Coasts are going to be severely (and I DO mean, SEVERELY) hammered by heavy snow potentially by this storm Wednesday on into Thursday. Those places, you best have a heavy-duty snowblower all gassed up.

I know Woodbridge will see about 43.7 flurries with this storm. There is really no need to get excited LOL.


-Jeb

[yoda]

Jeb.... Charles County is the county directly east of the Potomac from Fairfax and Prince William... am getting a bit antsy about the new runs at 0z!

[Anonymous]

Wed/thur???????


when does the 0z ETA come out, and if it did, what did it say?

[yoda]

I don't know when the 0z runs come out... SF help!

[Anonymous]

The 00z ETA is coming out as we speak... it's completed to 12 hours right now. Obviously it hasn't gone out far enough to determine any real differences yet... we should know more within the next 15-20 minutes though.

[Anonymous]

Jeb.... Charles County is the county directly east of the Potomac from Fairfax and Prince William... am getting a bit antsy about the new runs at 0z!

Well if this trend continues, it would seem that perhaps for the first time this ENTIRE SEASON we might actually have a chance at some snow from a good weather system for a doggone change!

Because Charles County is the county just east of me. Normally I would not be so glad I live this far EAST in the state, because of that Rain/Snow Line which has been our nemesis SO MANY TIMES in the past concerning potential winter storms!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

However this time around it may indeed be a Blessing in disguise.......I hope. Because if this thing tracks TOO far West, wouldn't it be one heck of a meteorological LAUGH if we ended up with RAIN ISSUES, After all!!!!!!!!

You know folks, THAT could happen too!!!!! This is not exactly January anymore!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

But because Charles County now has a WSW, hmm..........I must admit it does have me thinking more about the rather remote possibility of Woodbridge actually getting some snow for ONCE this winter, instead of plain heavy rain or just plain getting frickin' MISSED, per Usual!!!!!

It does get a little irritating after a few times. I can tell ya all, it is NOT fun being in a Snow Bubble, not one little bit.

I do fully recognize that all my snow (IF I do get it) WILL melt very, very rapidly due to massive warming beginning Thursday and lasting well into late next week, with upper 50s expected from Saturday all the way into late NEXT week. That's fine, it's pushing late February now.

But......................It would be nice to not get missed just once here in N VA. Just for once, to get in on some serious snows, just ONE time, give US the big 8 inches, or 12 inches, and I heartily promise everyone here that I will finally stop crying about our milquetoast winter here in Woodbridge, VA.

Please, Just one time, let us get the 8 to 12 inches of snow. After all, it will melt FAST this weekend. It will be Short and Sweet, no muss or fuss on the commuters. We'd get it Wed morning, then all melted away-----GONE, by early Sunday morning.

Please. Just ONE time this season. God knows we've endured our share of heartbreaks, milquetoast "arctic" fronts and numerous near-misses here in Woodbridge. Now we may actually have an historic chance at some real snow (though it will melt super-fast this weekend).

Please. Just one good snow.


Just for Jeb. Just a few more precious jebwalks in the snow before Spring overspreads N VA!!!!!




-Jeb

[yoda]

YES JEB I KNOW!!!

Using the Force!

[stormraiser]

Jeb, I told you I grew up across the river from you. I grew up in Charles County. I think I may be due for a visit home, but don't think I will make it before this storm