0z ETA AND NGM coming in now... analysis
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

- yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
0z ETA AND NGM coming in now... analysis
Here comes the 0z ETA and NGM... anyalsis in a few mins....
0 likes
For what it's worth, the 00z NGM is significantly different from the previous run, developing the low much farther south and bombing it out off the Carolina coast. At face value it's too far east to get much precip over land, but this is the NGM we're dealing with, and the 500mb maps look much improved over last run... eerily similar to Jan 2000...
36hr:
42hr:
48hr:

36hr:

42hr:

48hr:

0 likes
As for the 00z ETA, it still refuses to give up on the two low pressure centers idea, which means it is almost certain to still be a miss south of the Mason-Dixon line except for the Delmarva and SE VA. However, the 500mb map at 24hr seems to indicate that the STJ s/w is a little stronger, so we'll see how it plays out on the next few frames.
If only it would lose that damn 1st low off ORF I think this could be big!
If only it would lose that damn 1st low off ORF I think this could be big!
Last edited by Anonymous on Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:28 pm, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes
- Scott_inVA
- Storm2k Forecaster
- Posts: 1238
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 5:44 pm
- Location: Lexington, Virginia
- Contact:
Re: 0z ETA AND NGM coming in now... analysis
0Z Eta first comment through 24 hours...
H5 vort is tighter, Pcpn through 24 hrs more north than 18Z
H5 vort is tighter, Pcpn through 24 hrs more north than 18Z
0 likes
ETA isn't looking good IMO at 30hrs. The trough axis is noticably farther east so time is already beginning to run, and the precip shield has shifted east significantly over the Delmarva and S NJ.
Yoda, the 00z GFS starts coming in around 10:30 PM, the GGEM comes in around 11, and there is no 00z Euro that's available to the public
.
Yoda, the 00z GFS starts coming in around 10:30 PM, the GGEM comes in around 11, and there is no 00z Euro that's available to the public

0 likes
- Scott_inVA
- Storm2k Forecaster
- Posts: 1238
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 5:44 pm
- Location: Lexington, Virginia
- Contact:
- Scott_inVA
- Storm2k Forecaster
- Posts: 1238
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 5:44 pm
- Location: Lexington, Virginia
- Contact:
Re: 0z ETA AND NGM coming in now... analysis
DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN
As is often the case with the Eta (most recently last Wed), the 0Z is now HACKING down QPF for Mid-Atlantic into coastal northeast.
If you were huggin' the 18Z Eta... here's a tissue
As is often the case with the Eta (most recently last Wed), the 0Z is now HACKING down QPF for Mid-Atlantic into coastal northeast.
If you were huggin' the 18Z Eta... here's a tissue

0 likes
Yep, the 00z ETA officially blows... the 36hr surface map looks somewhat similar to the last run but with everything shifted east such that most of the heavy precipitation stays offshore. The trough is less impressive and doesn't have much of a negative tilt (no height lines bending back to the NW off the mid-Atlantic coast like there was on 18z). This will probably mean total amounts of 0.50-0.75" or less for the portions of coastal NJ that the 18z had seeing 2-3" QPF. As for me, this run sucks, but then again so did all the others
.



0 likes
- Scott_inVA
- Storm2k Forecaster
- Posts: 1238
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 5:44 pm
- Location: Lexington, Virginia
- Contact:
Scott_inVA wrote:Brett,
The 0Z Eta doesn't blow (unless you're a snow bunny), it was the 18Z that was full of crap.
The trend has been for this to stay just off shore and not spin up...keeping pcpn along the coast. That's what the 0Z (so far) is FINALLY doing.
LOL, I didn't mean that it's incorrect, just that it's not what my delusional eyes were hoping to see


0 likes
- Scott_inVA
- Storm2k Forecaster
- Posts: 1238
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 5:44 pm
- Location: Lexington, Virginia
- Contact:
yoda wrote:DON'T THROW IN THE TOWEL YET!!!! I AM NOT!!!
WAIT FOR THE 0Z GFS AND GGEM RUNS.... DON'T BASE IT SOLELY ON THE 0Z ETA!
Not model hugging, Yoda but the eta bias has shown through and it's (at least through 18Z) the outlier. I doubt the GFS and GGEM will spin up 100 miles off shore and then creep up the coast.
Not trying to be Darth Vader, just using this to show what the Eta does, especially with southern stream storms affecting the Mid-Atlantic.

0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests