Precip blossoming in Georgia?!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
Even if the low DOES go out to sea, there could still be some wintery precip for NC and VA as the system goes out to sea, so yeah, maybe we should keep an eye on this.........
Hey temp is down to 22 in Woodbridge but dewpoint is up to 10 degrees, up 11 degrees in the past 4 hours.
Hmmmm................................
-Jeb
Hey temp is down to 22 in Woodbridge but dewpoint is up to 10 degrees, up 11 degrees in the past 4 hours.
Hmmmm................................
-Jeb
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ooooooo great radar hurricane dude!@!-
Anonymous
When you look at this radar, you can see some precip over a state located SW of Illinois. Is that state Missouri? What is that feature, anyway?
Man we may have given up too soon folks, we need to watch this radar all night. There is stuff developing over eastern KY, eastern TN, Georgia, western VA and western NC in an axis generally NNW-SSE and moving NE.
-Jeb
Man we may have given up too soon folks, we need to watch this radar all night. There is stuff developing over eastern KY, eastern TN, Georgia, western VA and western NC in an axis generally NNW-SSE and moving NE.
-Jeb
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Anonymous
The models have been all over the place, and forecasters all up and down the E Coast are biting their fingernails. I nearly gave up, but I'm just a silly weenie LOL.
I say we need to keep an eye on this developing whatever it is. It's probably nothing, but I have noticed something locally. We have light NNE winds locally but the dewpoints are rising. It is 22 degrees with a dewpoint of 11 degrees!!! That constitutes a relative humidity of 60 percent. Pressure is 30.50 though.
Looks like VA and NC have a slight chance of some light wintery precip by about 8am tomorrow morning.
Hmm..................................
-Jeb
I say we need to keep an eye on this developing whatever it is. It's probably nothing, but I have noticed something locally. We have light NNE winds locally but the dewpoints are rising. It is 22 degrees with a dewpoint of 11 degrees!!! That constitutes a relative humidity of 60 percent. Pressure is 30.50 though.
Looks like VA and NC have a slight chance of some light wintery precip by about 8am tomorrow morning.
Hmm..................................
-Jeb
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Erica
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Daytona Beach, FL
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The 0z GFS still isn't bad for Northeastern North carolina with over 0.50" of liquid.
Even still though the 18z GFS was much more impressive than the new 0z run.
The 18z run had both good 850mb convergence and strong CSI signature as well as great negative omega and good saturation through the dendritic layer to maximize snowfall growth.
The ETA is developing it across the coast in conjunction with the the 700mb deformation zone. So this is hardly a miss for Northeast North Carolina.
Even still though the 18z GFS was much more impressive than the new 0z run.
The 18z run had both good 850mb convergence and strong CSI signature as well as great negative omega and good saturation through the dendritic layer to maximize snowfall growth.
The ETA is developing it across the coast in conjunction with the the 700mb deformation zone. So this is hardly a miss for Northeast North Carolina.
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Anonymous
Erica wrote:The 0z GFS still isn't bad for Northeastern North carolina with over 0.50" of liquid.
Even still though the 18z GFS was much more impressive than the new 0z run.
The 18z run had both good 850mb convergence and strong CSI signature as well as great negative omega and good saturation through the dendritic layer to maximize snowfall growth.
The ETA is developing it across the coast in conjunction with the the 700mb deformation zone. So this is hardly a miss for Northeast North Carolina.
What's more, your observation of .5 qpf for NE North Carolina may correlate with the development and passage of wintry precip over northeastern NC and SE Virginia tomorrow as this system moves NE out to sea. Southern VA and North Carolina may need to stay apprised of this developing baroclinic leaf (expanding area of precipitation) throughout the night. Maybe this is why RAH was so concerned; they saw something in the data that we could not yet see until now.
-Jeb
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Erica
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Daytona Beach, FL
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Actually, I was first to talk about the baroclinic leaf and strato deck off the coast, over the Gulf stream before RAH's updated AFD and watches were issued.
That precipitation is probably associated with the increasing sub-tropical moisture feed and developing baroclinic leaf that i was talking about earlier. There's also some over western North Carolina and Kentuckey that the models didn't see.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNati ... e&pid=none
That precipitation is probably associated with the increasing sub-tropical moisture feed and developing baroclinic leaf that i was talking about earlier. There's also some over western North Carolina and Kentuckey that the models didn't see.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNati ... e&pid=none
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Anonymous
Erica wrote:Actually, I was first to talk about the baroclinic leaf and strato deck off the coast, over the Gulf stream before RAH's updated AFD and watches were issued.
That precipitation is probably associated with the increasing sub-tropical moisture feed and developing baroclinic leaf that i was talking about earlier. [i]There's also some over western North Carolina and Kentuckey that the models didn't see[/b].
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNati ... e&pid=none
The developing precip over W NC and KY that the models did not see, could add up to something, but exactly what, I can't quite figure out just now. But I think something is happening here, something the models could not see and have not included in their latest output. We are coming to within 24 to 30 hours from the event itself and radar trends are going to become increasingly illustrative.
I have a question: What is that feature located over Missouri? It appears to be snow, mix and rain moving SSE and rotating counter-clockwise. Usually, counter-clockwise rotation is indicative of a Low. Is that by any chance an Upper-Level low?
-Jeb
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Wannabewxman79
- Tropical Storm
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- Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:53 pm
- Location: Riegelwood, NC (20 miles W of Wilmington)
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Anonymous
I was lurking on the WWBB board earlier and I read that HM (arguably one of THE BEST mets on messageboards anywhere; if he is not a met, he is definately d@mn gud at weather!!!!) stated that the low would develop off the Georgia/Florida coast then move up the coast.
I am beginning to think that some forecasts are going to change a little by late this morning (it is now 1224am on the east coast).
BTW, our local temp is 20; our dewpoint is 13 degrees, relative humidity is over 70 percent.
-Jeb
I am beginning to think that some forecasts are going to change a little by late this morning (it is now 1224am on the east coast).
BTW, our local temp is 20; our dewpoint is 13 degrees, relative humidity is over 70 percent.
-Jeb
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