Uh oh ... AFD from ILM

[Stormsfury]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
401 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
COLUMBUS COUNTIES...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST WILL HELP TO
INITIATE STRONG CYCLOGENSIS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THIS EVENING. AM
GETTING VERY CONCERNED AT THIS LATE HOUR LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS
OVER NRN FL/SRN GA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS BREAKING OUT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS AT
ALL. IN ADDITION...THE 18Z MESOETA HAS INCREASED THE QPF OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THAN EXPECTED IF CORRECT.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH PLANNED FORECAST OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING TO SNOW THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE QPF SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN OUR NC ZONES WHERE THE MOST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE.
WITH THE CHANGEOVER OCCURRING FIRST INLAND...EXPECT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH FOR THE MOST PART IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES...WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION CLOSE TO THE COAST AND OVER MOST OF OUR SC
ZONES.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW
PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE
CAPE FEAR REGION WED MORNING.

CLEARING SHOULD REALLY BEING TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON WED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU.

[rainstorm]

radar looks pretty dry. im not sure where people are getting it will still be precipitating here tomorrow morning

[Wannabewxman79]

So what does this mean? Just the coast is in for some more in the over night?

[Bane]

They've backed off this now. They just canceled the advisories as there is very little in the way of precip on radar. Looks like the low will be too far offshore to spread any precip back our way.

[rainstorm]

i was wondering what everyone was looking at.