"ROFLMAO!" NWS to STOKE the Pot Belly Stove!

[azsnowman]

ROFLMELOA! This is TOOOOOOOOO funny, the NWS telling folks to bring in the FIRE WOOD?!?!?!


BEYOND MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PROGS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY
BRING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS AZ MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE ANOTHER BIG
LOW IS DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE PROGS BRING THIS LOW
CENTER TO NEAR SFO BY WEDS WITH A VERY MOIST FLOW INTO AZ. NOT
GETTING TO EXCITED YET ABOUT A BIG EVENT WEDS BUT WILL START TO BRING SOME
FIRE WOOD CLOSER TO THE HOUSE IF YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN.



Dennis

[David]

Lol, intresting.

[Stephanie]

Geez Dennis!

[azsnowman]

Hazardous Weather Outlook



WHITE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ

453 PM MST THU FEB 19 2004




TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LOWS 20 TO 26 ABOVE 7000 FEET...24 TO 31 BELOW 7000 FEET.
FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY... COOLER... LIGHT WINDS... HIGHS 37 TO 47 ABOVE 7000 FEET...45 TO 55 BELOW 7000 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY... AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 6500 FEET. LIGHT WINDS. LOWS 18 TO 25 ABOVE 7000 FEET...25 TO 32 BELOW 7000 FEET. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW... SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HIGHS 35 TO 45 ABOVE 7000 FEET...43 TO 52 BELOW 7000 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LOWS 17 TO 24 ABOVE 7000 FEET...24 TO 30 BELOW 7000 FEET.
SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW... HIGHS 33 TO 43 ABOVE 7000 FEET...41 TO 48 BELOW 7000 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY LOWS 20 TO 27 ABOVE 7000 FEET...26 TO 33 BELOW 7000 FEET. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW... HIGHS 33 TO 43 ABOVE 7000 FEET...39 TO 48 BELOW 7000 FEET. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW... LOWS 19 TO 26 ABOVE 7000 FEET...25 TO 32 BELOW 7000 FEET.
TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW... HIGHS 38 TO 48 ABOVE 7000 FEET...45 TO 51 BELOW 7000 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS 15 TO 22 ABOVE 7000 FEET...23 TO 28 BELOW 7000 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS 35 TO 45 ABOVE 7000 FEET...43 TO 50 BELOW 7000 FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW LOWS 15 TO 22 ABOVE 7000 FEET...23 TO 28 BELOW 7000 FEET.
THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW... HIGHS 34 TO 44 ABOVE 7000 FEET...41 TO 51 BELOW 7000 FEET. =



As you can see, tomorrow will be the only half way decent day for the rest of this week and NEXT week!

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

the Canyon Winds were in full force last night as the leader in what could be a parade of systems came through. Peak wind gusts reported by the FHU Mesonet hit as high as 59mph and based upon this I expect that peak gusts in and below the Canyons were in the 50-70mph range. The winds fanned a fire that destroyed 50-75 cords of stored firewood in what Fire Officials believe was an accidental start. It took 17 units about two hours to bring the fire under control and to prevent spot fires from taking off.

With regards to the upcoming pattern for this weekend into next week, the first significant system is due in Sunday night into Monday and right now appears to be the heaviest hitter for SE AZ. After that we get into a split flow progressive pattern with impulses coming through the flow. The models are not horribly agreeable about the timing and intensity of everything after Sunday but the pattern looks to be wet and unsettled. The GFS, as usual, is somewhat heavy handed on the amounts of rainfall with the Sunday system forecasting a major rain event for SE AZ but I shall wait and see what the short range models say on this before committing to amounts. The ECMWF continues the wet pattern into 240 hours while the GFS keeps it through 384 hours. Difficult to say right now if that will happen given the propensity of the GFS to go overboard on rain down here plus the fact that it has not done well down here in the out period. However, it does appear that we might have another wet period for our Winter rainy season. Temperatures will remain below normal.

Steve

[aveosmth]

Hey Dennis & Kahuna,

What do you think about the major storm for next week.....the latest GFS has it just sitting out in the Pacific for 2 1/2 days pumping in moisture then coming inland next Thursday....looks like a doozy if it verifies.


Avery

[azskyman]

We clearly need the moisture before the dry spring season takes hold. The waves appear pretty lively from this far out, but one never knows if that split flow will leave some of us high and dry.

I'm looking forward to a rainy/snowy spell!

[Josephine96]

LOL That outlook was cool.. I remember on X-Mas day when one of you guys posted an NWS forecast from the Midwest I think it was.. that was cool lol

[azsnowman]

Hey Dennis & Kahuna,

What do you think about the major storm for next week.....the latest GFS has it just sitting out in the Pacific for 2 1/2 days pumping in moisture then coming inland next Thursday....looks like a doozy if it verifies.


Avery

WEEELLL, so far so GOOD, it appears the GFS was pretty close!


.DISCUSSION...HUGE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A COOL
CYCLONIC AIRMASS OVER THE CWA...ALONG WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW
AND INSTABILITY. MODELS BREAK OUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL/AND NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. DO NOT HAVE ANY OBJECTIONS TO THIS BASED ON THE
AIRMASS DUE TO ARRIVE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT
TAPERS OFF. A STRONGER S/WV WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN
AND SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MOIST AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WILL BE ISSUING AN SPS FOR
NOW...TO COVER THE IMPENDING WET PERIOD. THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL
BE WET WITH FREQUENT SNOW...BUT THE INTENSITY AND RATES OF
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD KEEP US FROM ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
PETERSON.


Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

appearing over the Huachucas right now. Expect a low order event until the main impulse comes in Sunday. What appears to be happening now is that airmass is moistening up from the top down which could mean that moisture will be in place in the low levels instead of having to advect in for the Sunday system.

Steve

[azsnowman]

This is "IT!" The ONE we've been waiting for.......


200 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2004

...MOUNTAIN SNOWSTORM BECOMING MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

A VERY STRONG JET STREAM OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN HAS DEVELOPED AND
WILL BRING A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST TWO
DISTURBANCES...ONE TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY...WILL BE WEAK
AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THESE
SYSTEMS WILL MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF A MUCH STRONGER
WINTER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE STORM...ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO TAP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. IT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING EAST
ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IF THE EXPECTED TRACK AND
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE...THIS STORM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH VALLEY RAINFALL RANGING FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL AS LOW A 5000 FEET MONDAY MORNING...BUT
THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ABOVE 6000 FEET.
PEOPLE PLANNING TO VENTURE INTO HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION SINCE WINTER STORM WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AS THIS STORM DEPARTS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO ARIZONA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT


Dennis

[weatherlover427]

Things are getting active here too...

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
114 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2004

CORRECTED TYPO FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA

* UNTIL 700 PM PST

* AT 1 PM PST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SPOTTERS INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH INTO THE BURN AREAS.

MUD SLIDES AND ROCK SLIDES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. MUD SLIDES AND ROCK SLIDES CAN POTENTIALLY TRAP AND KILL PEOPLE CAUGHT IN THEIR PATH. MUD SLIDES CAN ALSO CAUSE FLOODING WHERE RUNOFF IS RESTRICTED OR BLOCKED.

RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS IN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO HEAVY MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS WHICH MAY BLOCK ROADS AND CULVERTS. POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLOODING AND PROPERTY LOSS COULD RESULT IN AREAS WHERE RUNOFF IS RESTRICTED OR BLOCKED.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
115 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2004 ...DO NOT USE AFTER 415 PM PST...

.NOW...

.NOW...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
110 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2004

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 3 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 3 PM WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT UP TO A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-
1247 AM PST FRI FEB 20 2004 ...DO NOT USE AFTER 245 PM PST...

.NOW...

AT 1245 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE REPORTED SOUTH OF MONROVIA AND IN THE VICINITY OF WEST COVINA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER MONROVIA AND NORTH OF WEST COVINA THIS HOUR. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
1115 AM PST FRI FEB 20 2004 ...DO NOT USE AFTER 215 PM PST...

.NOW...

AT 11 AM...A THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED NEAR PACOIMA. THE STORM WAS DISSIPATING AND MOVING NORTH INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AT 30 MPH. VERY BRIEF MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORM AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
110 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2004

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 3 PM. SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 3 PM WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS BUT COULD BE AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOTORISTS SHOULD WATCH FOR SLICK ROADWAYS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
110 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2004

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH 3 PM WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 3 PM WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT UP TO A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

HORTON

[Josephine96]

All kinds of good stuff going on huh lol

[Aslkahuna]

the GFS seems to be somewhat overboard compared to the other models particularly with respect to the out period. I agree with Tucson that QPF should be in the 0.5-1.5in range with the lower numbers down here and the higher numbers in the higher terrain. TUS is saying 1-2 feet in the mountains which is probably reasonable. Where the GFS goes off the deep end is in the 7-16 day period. If we were to see the accumulated QPF forecast by the GFS in that timeframe we would have record breaking floods in the Gila and Salt River Basins and rainfall amounts not too far off of the infamous Niño Winter of 1904-05 which I don't think is likely. However, that being said I do think that we will see a reasonable wet period (which I called for in my original winter outlook I put out last November) for the end of February into early March and IF (and important IF) we can get decent amounts of rain into southern NM and SW TX then maybe we can mitigate some of the long term drought effects upon the monsoon next Summer. Meanwhile heep the fingers, toes and everything else you can cross crossed.

Steve

[Stephanie]

Keep us posted guys! I'm keeping everything crossed!

[azsnowman]

Well, here we go, they're finally starting to put some snow accumulations in the forecast, "COULD" get anywhere from 8-36" by Sunday morning "WITH" an even LARGER closed off low stalling over us on Monday! Can you say "Dig UP to get OUT?"

WEAK RIDGING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE ATMOS WILL BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH AND WITH 700 MB FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING THAT THERE WILL BE
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ALONG THE RIM WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
HEAVY SNOW BANDS.

SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE PASSING OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AS IT COMES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...DUE TO THE
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS
EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE COCONINO PLATEAU...WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY AND NORTHERN
GILA COUNTY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS WEAK TO MODERATE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ALONG WITH 7.0 TO 8.5 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL WRAP A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS INTO ARIZONA...AND DUE TO THIS
MOISTURE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE. SEE
PHZSPSFGZ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.



Dennis

[aveosmth]

It looks like todays storm will be stronger than expected down here in SoCal....by tonight there is a chance we could get a half-inch per hour around here...I'm sure that would be a whopper of a storm for you guys in AZ.....

Avery

[weatherlover427]

It's begun to rain lightly here in Huntington Beach, radar shows more rain offshore moving towards the coast.