12 GFS... WOAH!!! and GGEM now shows the Great 50/50!

[yoda]

Okay... yes it is 120+ hrs out... still the GGEM now shows a POTENTIAL 50/50 low developing on its newrst run...

and the 12z GFS model run is...

Sorry about all the emoticons... becauset the 12z GFS went through the roof in QPF value... SF/Ercia should we throw this model run out? Also the 12z GFS tracks north some more.... but the QPF is probably over done... Examples are it gives D.C. 2.0 QPF, Philly 1.5, Richmond 1.5... NYC I think is close to 1.0..... WE SHALL SEE WHAT HAPPENS....
I am going to throw out this model run.... but it is EXCELLENT for the MA and NE!!

[Chris the Weather Man]

maybe it will be a recap of March 2001....... ( Not as far north)

[molecules]

March 2001 is a good possibilty.....I'm not honking until Sunday night.

[Chris the Weather Man]

OH.......... MARCH 2001 eh? over 25" was expected here..........

[molecules]

I know March 2001 was a huge disapointment.

25 inches that never happend for us. I think we had about an inch here from that storm.

[paul e]

>> SF/Ercia should we throw this model run out<<

Why? After all, its not the first gfs run that has this depiction. The 6z run was. But here's my question.. .What do you see in the features that accounts for the 35-50mb drop in the SLP's max pressure from the much stronger 06z run to the 12z run. Also, look how much weaker the 850 low is on the 12z run. And yet, more qpf is resulting... But Im concerned about this pictured weakening, and whats causing it..

[Stephanie]

Okay... yes it is 120+ hrs out... still the GGEM now shows a POTENTIAL 50/50 low developing on its newrst run...

and the 12z GFS model run is...

Sorry about all the emoticons... becauset the 12z GFS went through the roof in QPF value... SF/Ercia should we throw this model run out? Also the 12z GFS tracks north some more.... but the QPF is probably over done... Examples are it gives D.C. 2.0 QPF, Philly 1.5, Richmond 1.5... NYC I think is close to 1.0..... WE SHALL SEE WHAT HAPPENS....
I am going to throw out this model run.... but it is EXCELLENT for the MA and NE!!

Do you have a link to the GGEM?

[kpantz]

http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang ... 12Z%20ANIM

Animate away!

[kpantz]

Or...better yet...try this one (and watch your browser title bar)

http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang ... IN%20STORM

[Stephanie]

Thanks kpantz!

I was just reading Erica's discussion on the storm and looking at her maps as well. VERY INTERESTING!

[kpantz]

I'm anxious to see the GFS ensembles from 12Z. Should give us a better idea whether this phasing thing really has a chance.

[JCT777]

Well, this is 2 GFS runs in a row showing something big for my area. Only 8 more and I will be driving the snowstorm bandwagon.

[kpantz]

Well, this is 2 GFS runs in a row showing something big for my area. Only 8 more and I will be driving the snowstorm bandwagon.

Only 8, huh? You're a pretty trusting fellow...

[Stephanie]

Well, this is 2 GFS runs in a row showing something big for my area. Only 8 more and I will be driving the snowstorm bandwagon.

Yes, and it is good to know that this is for a forecast that's only 6 days out and not 2 weeks. Pretty promising!

[Heady Guy]

I think we need to see more runs before you can get alittle bit excited. It this run did verify , it would be very interesting. I would hunch a change to rain in a few areas.

[yoda]

Yes, this is true... I will wait until Sunday night/Monday MOrning's runs before getting on the "train".

Rain? That would be only along the coast.... GGEM/GFS/ECMWF all support ALL SNOW for MA west of at least the bay...

[kpantz]

I think we need to see more runs before you can get alittle bit excited. It this run did verify , it would be very interesting. I would hunch a change to rain in a few areas.

Climatologically, that's a pretty safe bet from 6 days out. You never know, though...if this thing gets cranking offshore and progresses northward (given sufficient sharpness/closing off in the UA), the fetch could be of a northerly-enough component to fight climatology.

Again, though, it's 6 days out, and this winter, I'd be as likely to forecast 40-pound hamsters falling from the sky.

[Stephanie]

Again, though, it's 6 days out, and this winter, I'd be as likely to forecast 40-pound hamsters falling from the sky.

[yoda]

LOL!!!

[JCT777]

I think the 12z UKMET actually shows them as 50-pound hamsters.