00z Sat GGEM Inland Runner!

[Anonymous]

No joke...



So now we've got the Euro out to sea and the GGEM a mild rainstorm with flooding. I'd hate to be a professional forecaster right now.

[Chris the Weather Man]

ouch! Still, There is still time for a change.

[Erica]

lol, thats a good one, Brett.

I think I will take the consensus here and go with an up the coast track. But I do have this to say, doesn't that 500mb prog look familiar? See the figure below for some details (and by the way It's not going to be an inland runner, that I promise you)



MRF 500mb height analysis for 0z January 8, 1996!

[Anonymous]

MRF 500mb height analysis for 0z January 8, 1996!

PLEASE don't get my hopes up like that... I just can't control myself when that comparison is made by a pro !

[Chris the Weather Man]

1996? OH the Memories, 27 inches of snow here! WOULD LOVE TO SEE IT HAPPEN AGIAN!


Hold the Phone here, Erica, Are you telling us, that this will not be a inland runner, Or Wil it be?

[Erica]

MRF 500mb height analysis for 0z January 8, 1996!

PLEASE don't get my hopes up like that... I just can't control myself when that comparison is made by a pro !

Just food for thought right now. That's all it is. And by the way the GFS is back to the suppressed solution.

[Erica]

1996? OH the Memories, 27 inches of snow here! WOULD LOVE TO SEE IT HAPPEN AGIAN!


Hold the Phone here, Erica, Are you telling us, that this will not be a inland runner, Or Wil it be?

Here's how it goes.

0z GGEM, Inland Runner.
12z ECMWF, Suppressed.
0z GFS, Suppressed.

This 0z model suite is enough to drive you crazy. lol. I've seen this pattern alot of times before, and the GFS obviously is going to serve us trouble, the ECMWF can't handle the southern branch energy, so it too is not going to be very helpful. I would say, stick to the UKMET, GGEM, ensembles. At least until we get closer.

[Anonymous]

LOOK at that precip gradient on the 00z GGEM... I don't think I could live through this if it were to verify (which is, of course, not likely)

[Erica]

Don't worry Brett, It's not going to verify. If the 06z run is back to the same thing as the previous 06z-18z runs, then it's probably just a hiccup. But even the GFS wasn't as far south as the ECMWF (which technically speaking is still the outlier with regard to the position of the mid level features)

[paul e]

Brett, again, the ggem is NOT an inland runner. It IS a blizzard for the N MA and southern NE. IT may be an inland runner for the central MA, but in total , that doesnt an inland runner make.

[Stormsfury]

BTW, anyone notice just HOW WRAPPED UP the GGEM low depiction is and look at the thickness schemes (and this is with a SEVERE WARM BIAS) ... anyways, the solution is IMHO, all wrong as it cuts the primary right through where the wedge begins to set up and then cuts right through with strong WAA and completely erradicates it ... WRONG ... 00z GGEM is overdoing things big time ... in fact, at 96 hours, the GGEM shows very strong signs of AG ... then at 108 hours, completely destroys the wedge ... with that much overrunning, and isentropic lift over a dammed pool of cold air, the primary could go WEST of the Appalachians, BUT the energy transfer would have to jump to the coast ... which shows the signs clearly of a transfer, but since it cuts the primary over the Appalachians, and in thus, scours out the wedge prematurely ... no getting around that by the 120 hour timeframe, in which the low SHOULD transfer to the coast ... especially given the strong blocking and -NAO shown, despite the RNA pattern out West...





Right now, the issues are with the timing of the phasing, IF the model guidance does indeed phase the two streams ... and obviously, the 00z runs have different degrees and timing of this occurring ... the 00z GFS is showing quite strong wedging between the 2 lows, actually 3 lows looking at animation (when the second wave develops and then a third one which then takes over) ...

Believe it or not, the GFS looks sensible IMHO of this depiction ... 1004mb low on the GFS vs. 998 mb primary low on the GGEM, the high strength is similar ...

[Guest]

Intresting turn of events with the 00z runs! GGEM says i get a nice snowstorm and the GFS says i get zilch which i do like seeing from the GFS this far out with a system to my south. I am really starting to like the set up for this out here where i am at! I just hope and pray that the GFS dont put me in any kind of Bullseye untill atleast tomorrow nights 00z run or more preferable Sunday's 12z run which is what im counting on to happen. I will have more on why i think this is gonna happen later on!

Right now im laying odds on the OV, MA and the NE with this one! And yes cant ignore the cad set up perhaps for the Carolinas into VA away from the coastal areas and even perhaps staying as far west as i95 west from about between DC & Richmond, VA south. Areas east of there may see something in the way of snow but i think they will turn to mostly liquid especially from the Delmarva (MD/DE coast) on south.

Just have to watch the trends with this one. Either way its gonna be fun to watch these trends over the next several days no matter the outcome!

[Tip]

Just my opinion, but I think that at this range from the event most of the models this year have had trouble with the strength of the Pac jet. As they get closer, they realize there is no west coast ridge to separate the the storms coming into the west coast. The result is there is not enough separation between the s/ws and the storms remain progressive as they hit the east coast. Although there have been instances of Greenland blocking and -NAO, it doesn't affect the storms until they get too far off the east coast as was the case with this mid-week storm which was kicked out by PAC energy coming east too fast. Again with this upcoming event, I don't see anything resembling a west coast ridge that would space out the s/ws and allow phasing sooner. The European model solution even though it is an outlier may be correct. However, the strength of the -NAO may be enough next week to turn the storm north. Looks like a battle between the Pac jet and the -NAO. Will be great to watch the outcome.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Well, LWX has finally stopped with there supressed forecast!

" A MORE INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING FCST FOR WED. STRONG SRN STREAM
ENERGY WITH 150 KT JET PROGGED BY GFS BY 00Z THU TO SUPPORT A SIG
STORM WED SOMEWHERE OFF THE SERN US COAST. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATING PHASING OF ENERGY BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAMS
SOMETHING THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED VERY OFTEN THIS WINTER SEASON. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONG DISTURBANCE OFF THE CA COAST WILL DIG SWD
ACROSS THE DESERTS SW THEN DEEPEN INTO H5 CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE WRN AND GULF COAST STATES AND OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THU/FRI. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR AVAILABLE TO MAKE
PRECIP TYPE FCST A NIGHTMARE WITH GFS AND CAN GLOBAL SHOWING 1035 MB
HIGH OVR NRN QUEBEC. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ATTM FOR ANY DETAILS. POPS
MAY BE TO BE EXTENDED INTO THU IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A
SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE
TO ADD RA/SN WORDING INSTEAD OF JUST PLAIN RAIN AND TRENDED TEMPS
COLDER WED. "

Also, 06z GFS, back to a major hit for the mid-atlantic...

[Colin]

The 6z GFS is a perfect setup this far out. I'm glad I have basically nothing from the 6z run, since it will most likely shift north as we get closer to the event...but I think the MA and the NE have a good shot with this one.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes Colin, It could shift north....... But NOT TOO FAR NORTH like March 2001

[Anonymous]

From today's HPC Prelim Extended:

...S-CENTRAL TO ERN US...
STRONG AND QUITE WET SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY EXITING OFFSHORE FRI. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SIG HT RISES AND A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY DAYS DAYS 5-7 THU/SAT AND TO THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY FOLLOWING WEEK. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT WILL PRODUCE SOME MDT HVY RAINS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO AL/GA AND FL TUES/WED WITH SOME MDT RAINS ACROSS SRN VA AND NC DAY 5 THU. THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS/PIEDMONT OF NWRN NC/VA AND EWD ACROSS MOST OF VA/MD/DE MAY SEE SOME MDT SNOW WITH A GOOD POSSIBLY OF A SWATH OF HVY SNOW. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE WITH NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AND AMOUNTS. HPC BEST BET FOR NOW IS THAT PCPN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

[Anonymous]

BTW, I should point out that my declaring that the GGEM was an "inland runner" was not entirely accurate; it's certainly rain for RIC DCA BWI PHL and possibly even NYC, but it does move to the coast after the image I posted and could be a major snowstorm for NE PA, NY, and New England.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Brett, There is still time left.... We could be at all snow.......

[Anonymous]

It will not hug the coast and it probably will not go out to see, so does it go up the coast and give DC-Boston the major snow sotrm that we have benn waiting for this winter?