Special Weather Statement Issued, Already!

[Anonymous]

...A POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

ALTHOUGH THIS POSSIBLE EVENT IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, COMPUTER MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM...A NOR'EASTER...IN
THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. SINCE SOME WARMER AIR
MAY ARRIVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS POTENTIAL STORM, A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE, MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST AT
BEST. AND, SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...SUCH AS THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...COULD BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION, ADDING TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING, THIS
POSSIBLE EVENT WILL BE BETWEEN THE NEW AND FULL MOON, SO NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IF A NEW OR FULL MOON WAS
OCCURRING.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL OF COURSE BE MONITORING
DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT HOW
COMPUTER MODELS VARY, BOTH AMONG INDIVIDUAL MODELS AS WELL AS FROM
ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT MODEL RUN, WHICH IS MOSTLY EVERY 12 HOURS,
TO SEE IF ANY ONE MODEL IS PERFORMING BETTER IN IDENTIFYING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF NOT ONLY THE SURFACE STORM, BUT OTHER FEATURES AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME, IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS ONLY A
POTENTIAL FOR A STORM AT THIS POINT, AND THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND TIMING, AS WELL AS TO TYPE AND
AMOUNTS, OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

AREA RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO LISTEN FOR LATER WEATHER STATEMENTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS
SITUATION UNFOLDS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, OR COMMERCIAL
TV AND RADIO, FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER EVENT.

$$

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT US ON THE WEB AT:
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI (IN LOWER CASE).


This could be the BIG one we have been waiting for. Very odd that they would issue a statement this far out for just a Nor'easter, they must think it will be BIG.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS ONLY A
POTENTIAL FOR A STORM AT THIS POINT, AND THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND TIMING, AS WELL AS TO TYPE AND
AMOUNTS, OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

[Anonymous]

of coarse I saw that before I posted . Nonetheless they think it will be BIG if they issue it this far out.

[Erica]

It's good to see PHL jumping on this, but eventhough I think it will effect their entire CFA significantly, (including those of you in the Poconos, and Lehigh Valley), I like the fact that they also discussed the amount of uncertainty with this system. Great Job, PHL and LWX

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Nonetheless they think it will be BIG if they issue it this far out.

Not nessicarely. ( SP. )

[molecules]

It's good to see PHL jumping on this, but eventhough I think it will effect their entire CFA significantly, (including those of you in the Poconos, and Lehigh Valley), I like the fact that they also discussed the amount of uncertainty with this system. Great Job, PHL and LWX

Tell me about it! Philly area has been screwed all winter. It's like we have this bubble over top of us.

[Anonymous]

They came out with it fast, not the norm.

[Erica]

of coarse I saw that before I posted . Nonetheless they think it will be BIG if they issue it this far out.

I doesn't mean that at all. it just means that they see the potential for a significant winter storm, it doesn't mean that it will for sure be big, just because their posting an SPS this far out.

It's just to let everone know that the potential is there, not to tell them to run out to the store and buy food for a week. lol

[Cheesy_Poofs]

of coarse I saw that before I posted . Nonetheless they think it will be BIG if they issue it this far out.

I doesn't mean that at all. it just means that they see the potential for a significant winter storm, it doesn't mean that it will for sure be big, just because their posting an SPS this far out.

It's just to let everone know that the potential is there, not to tell them to run out to the store and buy food for a week. lol

LOL, exactly Erica.

[WXBUFFJIM]

the key word is POTENTIAL. There's definitely never a guarantee this far out. Heck even one night before a snowstorm happens, it's never a guarantee, lol

Absolutely Erica, no kidding there!!! On top of that, the forecasts may or may not be consistent 5 days out. Definitely a tough low confidence forecast if you ask me.

Jim

[molecules]

of coarse I saw that before I posted . Nonetheless they think it will be BIG if they issue it this far out.

I doesn't mean that at all. it just means that they see the potential for a significant winter storm, it doesn't mean that it will for sure be big, just because their posting an SPS this far out.

It's just to let everone know that the potential is there, not to tell them to run out to the store and buy food for a week. lol

LOL, exactly Erica.

That 1evans for you.....LOL always jumping the gun and honking the horn.

[Anonymous]

of coarse I saw that before I posted . Nonetheless they think it will be BIG if they issue it this far out.

I doesn't mean that at all. it just means that they see the potential for a significant winter storm, it doesn't mean that it will for sure be big, just because their posting an SPS this far out.

It's just to let everone know that the potential is there, not to tell them to run out to the store and buy food for a week. lol

did I say it would DEFINATELY be big, no. Doesn't it seem strange though for them to issue it this far out. Normally it's not until the day before or so. Saturday afternoon for a stom on Tuesday night, that's all.

[therock1811]

the key word is POTENTIAL. There's definitely never a guarantee this far out. Heck even one night before a snowstorm happens, it's never a guarantee, lol

Nope, not a guarantee, but I for one will agree that the key word is potential...not definite!

[Cheesy_Poofs]

1evans- A day before the event? They would already have Watches out a day before the event!

[Anonymous]

of coarse I saw that before I posted . Nonetheless they think it will be BIG if they issue it this far out.

I doesn't mean that at all. it just means that they see the potential for a significant winter storm, it doesn't mean that it will for sure be big, just because their posting an SPS this far out.

It's just to let everone know that the potential is there, not to tell them to run out to the store and buy food for a week. lol

LOL, exactly Erica.

That 1evans for you.....LOL always jumping the gun and honking the horn.

Oh, BLA BLA BLA, I'd don't care what you or anyone else thinks.

[Erica]

No, I don't find anything strange about it.

[Anonymous]

well whatever, I like that the pros like yourself and DT think that we will see sig. snow. DT said something like 12 or more from Richmond to Philadelphia. So that is good.

[Erica]

well whatever, I like that the pros like yourself and DT think that we will see sig. snow. DT said something like 12 or more from Richmond to Philadelphia. So that is good.

That sounds about on Target to me also.

[therock1811]

Sounds like a VERY early guess to me...still too far out to really know...BTW I will probably put out my first call around 4pm Sunday...may wait til 6pm Monday for a second call...and then final probably around 3pm Tuesday.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

18z GFS-- sucks for evreyone.




That's the GFS for ya...one run gives me a MECS the next run is supressed.