0z ETA initialization, UPA coverage summary.

#1 Postby **Erica** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 9:15 pm

0z ETA had a decent initialization with good coverage from the United States and Canada, however only one RAOB from Mexico was available. RNK has equipment problems, same with BOI, and PASY was not available. Here's the summary from NCEP.

*************************************

534
NOUS42 KWNO 220118
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NOAA/NWS/NCEP WASHINGTON DC
0116 UTC SUN FEB 22 2004

220116Z...THE 00Z ETA MODEL RUN STARTED ON TIME WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF UPA DATA FROM US/CAN..ONLY 76679 FROM MEX WAS
AVAILABLE...RAOBS...

RNK/72318 - 10142..EQUIP PBLMS
BOI/72681 - 10142..EQUIP PBLMS
PASY/70414 - N/A

WHITMORE/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 9:18 pm

So then, we should expect a good run from the ETA?

Management · #3 Postby **Management** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 9:34 pm

Expect better consistency tomorrow/monday as abundant data becomes available within the con us. If guidance continues the suppressed solution and no northward and amplified trend begins by sun pm/mon then i'd'd start to buy the EC/UK. I would caution anyone with high confidence in any solution at this point.. The two things that bother me are seasonal trends and EC runs 2/21 and 2/20. Lets hope to see the Ukie reverse and GGEM stay the course or close to it, later this evening

donsutherland1 · #4 Postby **donsutherland1** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 9:49 pm

Tony,

I fully agree with you.

#5 Postby **Erica** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 10:26 pm

UPA coverage for the GFS was also pretty good. LWX was the only problem spot, with erratic winds in the 300-85mb layer. Several dropsondes over the Northeast pacific were in for the GFS, which should help as well.

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872
NOUS42 KWNO 220251
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NOAA/NWS/NCEP WASHINGTON DC
0250 UTC SUN FEB 22 2004

220250Z...THE 00Z NCEP PRODUCTION CYCLE IS ON TIME.

RAOB UPDATE....
LWX/72403 - DELETED WINDS 300-85MB FOR GFS...ERRATIC.

FYI...THE NOAA G-IV AND A USAFR C-130 ARE FLYING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC IN SUPPORT OF THE WINTER STORM RECON PROGRAM.
NUMEROUS DROPSONDE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR THE 22/00Z
NCEP MODEL CYCLE.

KNEAS/SDM/NCO/NCEP

#6 Postby **Erica** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 10:27 pm

donsutherland1 wrote:Tony,

I fully agree with you.

Yeah, I agree with both of you. Theres no reason for the model hugging 5 days out.

Colin · #7 Postby **Colin** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 10:28 pm

Erica, what are your thoughts on the ETA?

0z ETA initialization, UPA coverage summary.

0z ETA initialization, UPA coverage summary.

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