0z Sunday Model cycle, Saturday ECMWF, and my Thoughts.

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0z Sunday Model cycle, Saturday ECMWF, and my Thoughts.

#1 Postby Erica » Sun Feb 22, 2004 3:53 am

Please first of all except my apology for the delay in getting this posted, I was waiting for the full 0z model cycle to complete processing before posting anything prematurely, and I’m also having trouble sleeping tonight, so I might as well make the best out of it. Obviously, and as I see everyone has pointed out, the 12z ECMWF, and 0z GFS, ETA, GGEM are similarly disappointing. We’re going to deal with that here, and also discuss what kind of opportunity still exists for a major winter storm across the eastern part of the country, or more specifically the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England this coming week.

Even I was a little concerned when I saw the ECMWF, then ETA, GFS and GGEM come in very close to one another, and actually the 0z GFS and 12z ECMWF in some ways were strikingly similar. There are some signs that a few of the models may be trying to hold back some energy, by that, were talking about one piece going out and then the other staying back behind, The details however a pretty sketchy, to say the least. As of this writing (135 AM EST), the 0z Sunday UKMET is not in.

First before I talk about the system, review tonight’s models and give you my thoughts on the crazy situation, I want to review with everyone what is needed synoptically speaking for a major east coast snowstorm to occur. There are three major things which come into play here.

First, you need to have a closed 50/50 low (Low pressure Located near 50 degrees north latitude and 50 degrees west longitude), this is probably overall the most important factor of all three. The 50/50 low helps to hold in areas of high pressure across either the great lakes, or Quebec, which in almost all situations is needed for a complete snow event in the I-95 corridor and at the coast. The 50/50 low also has a close relationship with the NAO, and a lot of times can directly affect its behavior, the same was the NAO can directly affect the 50/50 low. In these cases, the 50/50 low abruptly shortens the wavelengths in the northern branch of the jet stream that then sends the NAO negative if it was neutral and strongly negative if it’s already negative.

In the case of a Miller Type “A” Major east coast snowstorm or major east coast low, the appearance of a 50/50 low prevents the southern stream s/w from tracking inland, or if were talking about a Miller Type “B” Major east coast snowstorm, the 50/50 low causes the suppression of the height field across the eastern part of the country, which then directs the digging Polar jet s/w energy to go around it, on a more southeasterly track. It also delays the phasing of the Northern and Southern streams in a Miller Type B situation which prevents a system from tracking inland, in addition to forcing an initial inland running low pressure system transfer energy to a coastal low.

Secondly, the NAO has to be negative. Of course, like I just talked about, the 50/50 low can shorten the wavelengths and send the NAO negative; the same as the blocking associated with the negative NAO can result in a weaker system moving toward the Canadian Maritimes, Price Edward’s Island, Nova Scotia, or Newfoundland to slow down, and intensify (or close off), becoming the new 50/50 low. The blocking associated with a negative NAO may be found in three primary areas, first and probably most preferred would be right across Greenland, which we all know better as the classic Greenland Block. The second position is over Baffin Island, Labrador, The Davis Strait, and Northeastern Quebec, this however is a pretty extreme position to have the main above mean height center located, associated with the Negative Phase of the NAO. The third position is Near Ireland, Scotland, or England.

The last primary feature is the Polar Vortex. If the polar vortex is very strong and either, one, displaced well south of its climatological position, or located near Newfoundland, the strong jet develops in the confluent flow underneath the vortex causes shortwaves either in the polar or Arctic branch to be shunted quickly east instead of digging and potentially phasing with a Southern Stream entity. If the Polar Vortex is in climatological position and intensity, shortwaves would be encouraged to dig more, and as a result, have a better chance of phasing with southern branch energy.

Without Blocking, or a 50/50 low, high pressure systems will slide off the east coast ahead of a system, which then normally causes the flow to turn into the southeast along the east coast, turning precipitation type over to rain along the immediate coastal plain and the I-95 corridor. An amplified PNA ridge is also preferred. Please understand that having all of these factors present at the same time does not guarantee that a major east coast snowstorm is going to occur. You still need some sort of Northern and Southern branch energy phasing, or digging northern branch energy (Like an Manitoba Mauler, Saskatchewan Screamer, or Alberta Clipper) in order for these factors previously discussed in conjunction with either the digging or phasing (or both) in order to get something big. If there’s no shortwave(s), you won’t get any big storm.

This relates to our current situation in several ways, for one, we will have the 50/50 low, but whether or not it is closed off, and allows the jet to push the Polar jet s/w further south, causing it to phase with the energy coming out of the southwest remains to be seen. The Polar vortex is pretty far to the North (north or a climatological position, and a bit weaker than climatological intensity), but if the 50/50 low is sufficiently strong, it really may not matter. I want also point out to you that this situation is a lot different from the one which we had last week, in which the NAO was mostly positive, and there wasn’t any 50/50 low whatsoever.

This time around, we will have the 50/50 low in some capacity, and the blocking located in close to the perfect position, but the Polar vortex is displaced north of its climatological position, which as we know, isn’t favorable.

Ok, on to the models, we’ll talk about the ECMWF and GFS mostly, as I still haven’t had time to break down the rest of the data as much as what I would like to, but I’ll also give you a feel for what’s going on according to them (0z GGEM, 0z ETA).

Tonight’s ECMWF was heartbreaking for those in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, but the thing that made it probably that much worse was the fact that the 0z Sunday GFS run looked strikingly similar. Here’s the 72 hour ECMWF valid 12z Tuesday.

http://web.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... rt_h72.gif

Looking at the synoptic set-up the ECMWF has the Polar vortex located to the west of Baffin Island, which is good, the strong and clearly discernable blocking across the north Atlantic, and looks as if it’s trying to develop a closed 50/50 low. However, even with that in mind, the Polar jet energy is moving rapidly across the lakes, while the closed 500mb low is still located over Western Texas.

Image

The GFS (shown above) valid at the same time has a ragged looking southern branch shortwave, which is weaker than the ECMWF and not closed off. The Vortex is located in pretty much the same position as where the ECMWF has it, the locking is there, and the 50/50 low is closed off at 528dm.

96 hour ECMWF valid at 12z Wednesday.

http://web.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... rt_h96.gif

The ECMWF at this point, no longer has any hint of the closed 50/50 low; however the Polar vortex is still in the same position; west of Baffin Island, and the blocking is in position. But, by this time, the Polar Jet s/w energy is already almost clearing the east coast, while the closed 500mb low and positively tiled trough are well back to the west across Texas.

Image

The GFS is very similar synoptically; we have the vortex in position but exiting to the northwest, no closed 50/50 low, and the blocking still there. The GFS forces the Polar jet energy quickly off to the east, while the southern stream low is well back to the west in relatively the same position as where the ECMWF has it, over Texas, at 552dm.

120 hour ECMWF valid 12z Thursday

http://web.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... t_h120.gif

http://web.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... 20_sfc.gif

By Thursday, the Polar get energy is well off to the east, and absorbed, the 50/50 low remains disorganized, the vortex is exiting out off to the northwest of Baffin Island, toward the Arctic, but what I do find interesting is the s/w nearing the Arrowhead of Minnesota, which may perhaps play a role, but what if any is unclear. Of course I could be making something out of nothing. Anyway, the closed low opens up across the southeast, and the surface low is analyzed off the northeast coast of Florida. If that track is indeed correct, this event would have little effect on anyone, with the exception of maybe South Carolina and Northeast Georgia, if enough cold air damming is in place supplied by 1036 high to the north.

The GFS pretty much is the same. So much so that there really isn’t much else to discuss as far as differences go, everything was pretty much covered above.

Image

GFS 1000-500mb Thicknesses does indicate precipitation type problems across northern Georgia, and Northwestern South Carolina. But this is assuming that the GFS and ECMWF are correct, and besides, it’s a little too early to talk about that.

Image

The placements of the Surface features are pretty similar also, weak surface low pressure off the coast of Florida, and slightly weaker 1028mb High pressure centered over Southern Quebec.

The 0z ETA is slightly more phased; however, the GGEM has now shifted its track also to a more suppressed one also, bringing it into line with the GFS, ECMWF, and previous 12z UKMET. By later in the morning we’ll probably have a better idea of where the GFS and GGEM ensembles stand and where the UKMET is at.

There is still time for things to change once again, but, the window of opportunity is closing pretty quickly.

The two major problems here are the lack of the closed 50/50 low, and the slow eastward progression of the Subtropical jet energy. If it was progressing out quicker, but we still had the northern stream s/w digging in ahead of it, we sill might have been able to get a handoff of energy from the southern stream to the northern branch, but even still, I’d like to have phasing. Remember, a in order for phasing to occur, in most cases the southern branch energy has to come out ahead of the Polar Jet energy, but if the two are relatively close, a handoff of energy sometimes can happen, much like we had in a situation this past January following the clipper. That event was not well forecasted by the models at all, and it was the ETA, which in the end picked up on it.

I'm not giving up here on the system just yet, eventhough, things may not look great. If by 0z This Evening the data (specifically the ECMWF), doesn't show any signs of changes, I'll give up on it, but right now, given that we are still at least 5 days away from it, I see no reason to get caught up in the model differences.
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#2 Postby Guest » Sun Feb 22, 2004 4:08 am

Wow! Well said Erica! Agreed 100%

This by far is one of the best post i have had the pleasure of reading yet at any bb on a storm potential!

Well thought out and well said!
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#3 Postby Guest » Sun Feb 22, 2004 4:19 am

Excellent Post!!!!
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 22, 2004 6:55 am

Agree with KOW about this post by Erica to be the most complete one about discussion and anaylisis of all the models that you can find around any message board.Erica thanks for helping the members here at S2K understand clearly what is going on when you do those extended anaylisis and discussions :) .
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#5 Postby Anonymous » Sun Feb 22, 2004 7:15 am

Great read, I read LC's newsletter this morning, and he is not ready to throw the towel in on this storm yet either.
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#6 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Feb 22, 2004 7:27 am

Excellent post, well detailed and explained. This has been the trend all winter, models depict major event only to fizzle as we get closer to the event.
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Long range...........

#7 Postby Dave C » Sun Feb 22, 2004 8:03 am

This is one of the things I learned in the past several years regarding models. When they "bark" more than 4 or 5 days in advance the odds are usually very low of them panning out for big snowstorms when the target period arrives. The conditions necessary for big storms are so many as Erica pointed out and when the models says "big dog" that far out , the conditions between the time the model comes out and the day of the actual event are fluid and can change day to day. For instance, whether the southern branch system ejects out of the SW in time, the strength of the northern branch system, position of cold high to the north etc. Many of the big storms we've had in years past were only progged 2 or 3 days in advance or were picked up medium range then dropped as the system came closer only to show up again 48hrs. or so away. April fools day 1997 is an example, I believe Jan 1996 was picked up early, then dropped only to come back towards the end. That's why "trend is your friend" which I believe Erica pointed out is so important. We'll see this time around :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#8 Postby Craig286 » Sun Feb 22, 2004 8:48 am

This winter was over with the storm that busted last week. All the hyping is getting way out of hand and even when this storm doesnt materialize there is going to be hyping for the next one - which wont materialize either..

Sorry, this winter has sucked ...maybe next winter
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#9 Postby Anonymous » Sun Feb 22, 2004 8:50 am

Excellent discussion and analysis Erika regarding next weeks event ! This made lots of sense. Yes right now I would expect nothing more than a cool rain event here for SC - a little dissapointing but not surprising anymore the way the pattern has been all winter. I do hope things change in March...........
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#10 Postby Anonymous » Sun Feb 22, 2004 9:26 am

Awesome analysis, Erica, thanks for posting. Looks like the 06z runs are just as depressing... but after reading your post and LC's newsletter, and thinking about the inconsistency of many of the models (despite their general agreement on suppression last night), I think I'll keep a little hope alive until 00z tonight.
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#11 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sun Feb 22, 2004 9:42 am

Brett, for one thing, Its only sunday, and the models can be Wrong....


I remember a time in 1997, when the models forecasted 2-4 inches of snow, for New England, Over night, they ended up with over 21 inches of snow.... So Yes, Models can be Dead Wrong. -


Erica, GREAT Post!! :D
Last edited by Chris the Weather Man on Sun Feb 22, 2004 10:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#12 Postby Stephanie » Sun Feb 22, 2004 9:59 am

Fantastic post Erica. Thank you for providing the list of "ingredients" needed for an EC snowstorm as well.. I know that it has been posted before here, but it is extremely helpful to get those reminders every once in awhile.

If this doesn't pan out, then I say, "bring on Spring"! It's still going to be a winter to remember, especially with the bone-chilling cold that we had here.
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#13 Postby Anonymous » Sun Feb 22, 2004 10:00 am

Chris the Weather Man wrote:Brett, for one thing, Its only sunday, and the models can be Wrong....


I remember a time in 1997, when the models forecasted 2-4 inches of snow, for New England, Over night, they ended up with over 21 inches of snow.... So Yes, Models can be Dead Wrong. -

Well, in certain situations they can be dead wrong, but pretty soon we'll know for sure whether or not this particular storm can be called off. The reason is that it's all dependent upon phasing between the northern and southern stream shortwaves (I'll refrain from using "STJ" since JB insists the southern s/w is not of subtropical origin), and if at this time tomorrow we can see that the northern feature has streaked way out ahead, there is no chance for this to come up the coast. So yes, the models can be wrong, but this isn't a case where we can still go to bed Tuesday night with any hope of a Jan 2000 situation where they were all out to lunch until the last minute.
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#14 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sun Feb 22, 2004 10:04 am

I agree, Brett,
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Re: 0z Sunday Model cycle, Saturday ECMWF, and my Thoughts.

#15 Postby Guest » Sun Feb 22, 2004 10:05 am

Great post RNS but tihis event is a bit closer than 4 or 5 days out...
IF this event were to come further north -- and the 00z and 6z GFS are IMO TOOOOO supresses -- the event would be in NC VA and MD Wed and or Thursday.
thats 72 -96 hrs.... not 5 days out.

Erica wrote:Please first of all except my apology for the delay in getting this posted, I was waiting for the full 0z model cycle to complete processing before posting anything prematurely, and I’m also having trouble sleeping tonight, so I might as well make the best out of it. Obviously, and as I see everyone has pointed out, the 12z ECMWF, and 0z GFS, ETA, GGEM are similarly disappointing. We’re going to deal with that here, and also discuss what kind of opportunity still exists for a major winter storm across the eastern part of the country, or more specifically the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England this coming week.

Even I was a little concerned when I saw the ECMWF, then ETA, GFS and GGEM come in very close to one another, and actually the 0z GFS and 12z ECMWF in some ways were strikingly similar. There are some signs that a few of the models may be trying to hold back some energy, by that, were talking about one piece going out and then the other staying back behind, The details however a pretty sketchy, to say the least. As of this writing (135 AM EST), the 0z Sunday UKMET is not in.

First before I talk about the system, review tonight’s models and give you my thoughts on the crazy situation, I want to review with everyone what is needed synoptically speaking for a major east coast snowstorm to occur. There are three major things which come into play here.

First, you need to have a closed 50/50 low (Low pressure Located near 50 degrees north latitude and 50 degrees west longitude), this is probably overall the most important factor of all three. The 50/50 low helps to hold in areas of high pressure across either the great lakes, or Quebec, which in almost all situations is needed for a complete snow event in the I-95 corridor and at the coast. The 50/50 low also has a close relationship with the NAO, and a lot of times can directly affect its behavior, the same was the NAO can directly affect the 50/50 low. In these cases, the 50/50 low abruptly shortens the wavelengths in the northern branch of the jet stream that then sends the NAO negative if it was neutral and strongly negative if it’s already negative.

In the case of a Miller Type “A” Major east coast snowstorm or major east coast low, the appearance of a 50/50 low prevents the southern stream s/w from tracking inland, or if were talking about a Miller Type “B” Major east coast snowstorm, the 50/50 low causes the suppression of the height field across the eastern part of the country, which then directs the digging Polar jet s/w energy to go around it, on a more southeasterly track. It also delays the phasing of the Northern and Southern streams in a Miller Type B situation which prevents a system from tracking inland, in addition to forcing an initial inland running low pressure system transfer energy to a coastal low.

Secondly, the NAO has to be negative. Of course, like I just talked about, the 50/50 low can shorten the wavelengths and send the NAO negative; the same as the blocking associated with the negative NAO can result in a weaker system moving toward the Canadian Maritimes, Price Edward’s Island, Nova Scotia, or Newfoundland to slow down, and intensify (or close off), becoming the new 50/50 low. The blocking associated with a negative NAO may be found in three primary areas, first and probably most preferred would be right across Greenland, which we all know better as the classic Greenland Block. The second position is over Baffin Island, Labrador, The Davis Strait, and Northeastern Quebec, this however is a pretty extreme position to have the main above mean height center located, associated with the Negative Phase of the NAO. The third position is Near Ireland, Scotland, or England.

The last primary feature is the Polar Vortex. If the polar vortex is very strong and either, one, displaced well south of its climatological position, or located near Newfoundland, the strong jet develops in the confluent flow underneath the vortex causes shortwaves either in the polar or Arctic branch to be shunted quickly east instead of digging and potentially phasing with a Southern Stream entity. If the Polar Vortex is in climatological position and intensity, shortwaves would be encouraged to dig more, and as a result, have a better chance of phasing with southern branch energy.

Without Blocking, or a 50/50 low, high pressure systems will slide off the east coast ahead of a system, which then normally causes the flow to turn into the southeast along the east coast, turning precipitation type over to rain along the immediate coastal plain and the I-95 corridor. An amplified PNA ridge is also preferred. Please understand that having all of these factors present at the same time does not guarantee that a major east coast snowstorm is going to occur. You still need some sort of Northern and Southern branch energy phasing, or digging northern branch energy (Like an Manitoba Mauler, Saskatchewan Screamer, or Alberta Clipper) in order for these factors previously discussed in conjunction with either the digging or phasing (or both) in order to get something big. If there’s no shortwave(s), you won’t get any big storm.

This relates to our current situation in several ways, for one, we will have the 50/50 low, but whether or not it is closed off, and allows the jet to push the Polar jet s/w further south, causing it to phase with the energy coming out of the southwest remains to be seen. The Polar vortex is pretty far to the North (north or a climatological position, and a bit weaker than climatological intensity), but if the 50/50 low is sufficiently strong, it really may not matter. I want also point out to you that this situation is a lot different from the one which we had last week, in which the NAO was mostly positive, and there wasn’t any 50/50 low whatsoever.

This time around, we will have the 50/50 low in some capacity, and the blocking located in close to the perfect position, but the Polar vortex is displaced north of its climatological position, which as we know, isn’t favorable.

Ok, on to the models, we’ll talk about the ECMWF and GFS mostly, as I still haven’t had time to break down the rest of the data as much as what I would like to, but I’ll also give you a feel for what’s going on according to them (0z GGEM, 0z ETA).

Tonight’s ECMWF was heartbreaking for those in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, but the thing that made it probably that much worse was the fact that the 0z Sunday GFS run looked strikingly similar. Here’s the 72 hour ECMWF valid 12z Tuesday.

http://web.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... rt_h72.gif

Looking at the synoptic set-up the ECMWF has the Polar vortex located to the west of Baffin Island, which is good, the strong and clearly discernable blocking across the north Atlantic, and looks as if it’s trying to develop a closed 50/50 low. However, even with that in mind, the Polar jet energy is moving rapidly across the lakes, while the closed 500mb low is still located over Western Texas.

Image

The GFS (shown above) valid at the same time has a ragged looking southern branch shortwave, which is weaker than the ECMWF and not closed off. The Vortex is located in pretty much the same position as where the ECMWF has it, the locking is there, and the 50/50 low is closed off at 528dm.

96 hour ECMWF valid at 12z Wednesday.

http://web.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... rt_h96.gif

The ECMWF at this point, no longer has any hint of the closed 50/50 low; however the Polar vortex is still in the same position; west of Baffin Island, and the blocking is in position. But, by this time, the Polar Jet s/w energy is already almost clearing the east coast, while the closed 500mb low and positively tiled trough are well back to the west across Texas.

Image

The GFS is very similar synoptically; we have the vortex in position but exiting to the northwest, no closed 50/50 low, and the blocking still there. The GFS forces the Polar jet energy quickly off to the east, while the southern stream low is well back to the west in relatively the same position as where the ECMWF has it, over Texas, at 552dm.

120 hour ECMWF valid 12z Thursday

http://web.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... t_h120.gif

http://web.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... 20_sfc.gif

By Thursday, the Polar get energy is well off to the east, and absorbed, the 50/50 low remains disorganized, the vortex is exiting out off to the northwest of Baffin Island, toward the Arctic, but what I do find interesting is the s/w nearing the Arrowhead of Minnesota, which may perhaps play a role, but what if any is unclear. Of course I could be making something out of nothing. Anyway, the closed low opens up across the southeast, and the surface low is analyzed off the northeast coast of Florida. If that track is indeed correct, this event would have little effect on anyone, with the exception of maybe South Carolina and Northeast Georgia, if enough cold air damming is in place supplied by 1036 high to the north.

The GFS pretty much is the same. So much so that there really isn’t much else to discuss as far as differences go, everything was pretty much covered above.

Image

GFS 1000-500mb Thicknesses does indicate precipitation type problems across northern Georgia, and Northwestern South Carolina. But this is assuming that the GFS and ECMWF are correct, and besides, it’s a little too early to talk about that.

Image

The placements of the Surface features are pretty similar also, weak surface low pressure off the coast of Florida, and slightly weaker 1028mb High pressure centered over Southern Quebec.

The 0z ETA is slightly more phased; however, the GGEM has now shifted its track also to a more suppressed one also, bringing it into line with the GFS, ECMWF, and previous 12z UKMET. By later in the morning we’ll probably have a better idea of where the GFS and GGEM ensembles stand and where the UKMET is at.

There is still time for things to change once again, but, the window of opportunity is closing pretty quickly.

The two major problems here are the lack of the closed 50/50 low, and the slow eastward progression of the Subtropical jet energy. If it was progressing out quicker, but we still had the northern stream s/w digging in ahead of it, we sill might have been able to get a handoff of energy from the southern stream to the northern branch, but even still, I’d like to have phasing. Remember, a in order for phasing to occur, in most cases the southern branch energy has to come out ahead of the Polar Jet energy, but if the two are relatively close, a handoff of energy sometimes can happen, much like we had in a situation this past January following the clipper. That event was not well forecasted by the models at all, and it was the ETA, which in the end picked up on it.

I'm not giving up here on the system just yet, eventhough, things may not look great. If by 0z This Evening the data (specifically the ECMWF), doesn't show any signs of changes, I'll give up on it, but right now, given that we are still at least 5 days away from it, I see no reason to get caught up in the model differences.
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#16 Postby Colin » Sun Feb 22, 2004 11:13 am

DT, it's not RNS...
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#17 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sun Feb 22, 2004 11:13 am

Colin wrote:DT, it's not RNS...



Yes, lol.......
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#18 Postby Anonymous » Sun Feb 22, 2004 2:05 pm

Well the 12z runs are unanimous (GFS ETA GGEM UKMET)... time to let go of any lingering hope in the back of your head... cause this one, like almost all of the many, many, many "potential" storms we've seen on the models for the MA this season, ain't gonna happen!
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#19 Postby Colin » Sun Feb 22, 2004 3:52 pm

Yup...this one's done...and so is winter.
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Re: 0z Sunday Model cycle, Saturday ECMWF, and my Thoughts.

#20 Postby Kelly » Sun Feb 22, 2004 9:38 pm

DT wrote:Great post RNS but tihis event is a bit closer than 4 or 5 days out...
IF this event were to come further north -- and the 00z and 6z GFS are IMO TOOOOO supresses -- the event would be in NC VA and MD Wed and or Thursday.
thats 72 -96 hrs.... not 5 days out.


Actually DT, RNS (FLguy) is my cousin, and he's banned until the 28th.
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