MODELS CHANGE
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
MODELS CHANGE
Why is everyone so sure that the storm is missing us based on what the models say?? Cant the models change back to us getting big snows??
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Anonymous
SnowNJ, the problem is that it is already painfully obvious that the northern and southern streams will not phase, thus resulting in a complete miss for everyone north of the Mason-Dixon line for sure, and probably even everyone north of RIC. Here's the 18z ETA's 500mb prog at 24hrs:
See, even at 24hrs, the two shortwaves are far enough displaced from each other that phasing is almost out of the question. For the phasing solution to be correct, the models would ALL have to be making some pretty significant errors in their forecasts. Gary Gray mentioned in his afternoon discussion that the northern stream shortwave (which is the culprit for the storm falling apart because it's moving too quickly) is already over the U.S. mainland and that the models should have initialized it well. Because of all these factors, I think it's pretty much out of the question that anyone north of DCA will see a flake out of the "main" system, which will remain a southern-stream only feature and probably dump its precipitation over Dixie into the Carolinas.
That said, the ETA is showing the northern stream s/w moving fast enough to where it remains independent of the southern one (no shearing out or getting energy stolen) and is able to crank up some light snows over parts of the Mid Atlantic overnight tomorrow into Tuesday. Unfortunately, NJ doesn't get in on the action at all.
See, even at 24hrs, the two shortwaves are far enough displaced from each other that phasing is almost out of the question. For the phasing solution to be correct, the models would ALL have to be making some pretty significant errors in their forecasts. Gary Gray mentioned in his afternoon discussion that the northern stream shortwave (which is the culprit for the storm falling apart because it's moving too quickly) is already over the U.S. mainland and that the models should have initialized it well. Because of all these factors, I think it's pretty much out of the question that anyone north of DCA will see a flake out of the "main" system, which will remain a southern-stream only feature and probably dump its precipitation over Dixie into the Carolinas.
That said, the ETA is showing the northern stream s/w moving fast enough to where it remains independent of the southern one (no shearing out or getting energy stolen) and is able to crank up some light snows over parts of the Mid Atlantic overnight tomorrow into Tuesday. Unfortunately, NJ doesn't get in on the action at all.
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