12z Sun ECMWF: One last ounce of hope?

[Anonymous]

Tonight's run of the ECMWF has suddenly found it portraying the most favorable solution for a snowstorm of all the models. The northern and southern streams stay separate, of course (that's practically a done deal at this point), but the southern s/w is shown somewhat stronger than on the other models, which has big implications for Thursday and Friday.

500mb Day 4:


500mb Day 5:


MSLP / 850mb Temp Day 5:


Obviously this still isn't a MECS or anything of the sort, but the point is that the European has trended towards a significantly less suppressed southern stream system, and we're still in the timeframe where it should be one of the best models to trust (Day 4-7). If this southern shortwave can get its act together (which I am guessing is more likely if the PJ s/w passing through Tuesday can get the hell out as quickly as possible so heights can rebuild a bit?) then maybe this could come a bit farther north than the current model consensus.

I don't know what to think about this... I pretty much gave up on the storm earlier, and now what do we get but the ECMWF taunting us with a bit of hope in the form of a northward/less suppressed trend, probably only to give us one final wave of disappointment before the winter season is out .

Any comments on this run from the pro's would be greatly appreciated!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Brett, I admire Your posts.. You will make a great Met one day. ( Me, Well, I love to read about the history, of fascinating weather events) We could use another 1996 Blizzard.........

[Kelly]

Yea, Brett will, but he's gotta get through high school first. lol

I can't give you a "professional" opinion on the ECMWF since I'm Not a professional yet, but I can give you an experienced one.

Tonight's ECMWF does not phase the front running northern branch s/w like previous runs of the GFS or even yesterday's 18z ETA did, but it has nother feature, which yesterday's run started to pick up on, and also the past few runs of the GFS.



At 96 hours, we still don't have a closed 50/50 low, but the block is there, and the polar vortex is west of baffin island, exiting to the northwest. The southern branch system is an open wave across the southeast, which the northern stream energy is dropping in behind it.



By 120 hours, the northern stream energy appears as if it drops in and phases with the lifting 500mb low coming out of the southeast, but timing is big here, and the phasing happens too late, like it has several times this winter, so the system goes out to sea. The 50/50 low is also closed off at this point, and located in a classic position, but it really doesn't matter.

The ECMWF would be significant for probably the lower mid atlantic from Richmond south, though, not a major event.

After that, the NAO turns positive, the 50/50 low is gone, and the trough in the means pulls back to the west, causing the ridge to build in across the east. it's probably not the end of winter, but does assure that the next batch of energy gives rise to an inland running system, since neither of those two things (the 50/50 low, or Negative NAO) are there, no cold high, or positive PNA pattern.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Did you see the Day 10 Euro?

[Kelly]

yea, I did, but it still has a positive NAO. Even still though, the sub-tropical trough is east of Hawaii again, and the trough is starting to progress back east again.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Might be a good thing........

[Anonymous]

Yea, Brett will, but he's gotta get through high school first. lol

LOL, don't count on that happening... it's painful!

Great post, thanks for your analysis. I'm hoping the 7-day Euro verifies so we can get a nice early taste of spring around here... Thursday's 60 degree temperatures were enough to get me in the mood for that.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Brett, Don't Worry, You will be a Great MET...... ( as for the Euro, I might be Playing Golf, with my father next week) Then, Day 10..... Pattern Change...............

[Kelly]

Here's something that I hope makes everyone feel better. Ok, ok, I know, it's march 2001, but at least it was fun to look at the ECMWF in the period leading up to it right?

[Chris the Weather Man]

Don't Remind me............. I won't like that storm........... Dropped 6 inches instead of the 25 inches ( Forecasted)


Maybe Mid March will have some Surprises. After all, 1993 happened in Mid March....................

[Anonymous]

Don't Remind me............. I won't like that storm........... Dropped 6 inches instead of the 25 inches ( Forecasted)

Well I went from expecting 12-24" to ZERO in 24 hours, so don't feel too sorry for yourself over it!

Wow, I wasn't looking at the models back then... but those maps sure are amazing. I guess it's a good thing I wasn't, becuase as depressed as I was just from seeing the TV weathermen abandon their forecasts, I can't imagine the pain of seeing those runs for several days only to get nothing...

[Chris the Weather Man]

Wow. ZERO........ lol........

[Stormsfury]

Don't Remind me............. I won't like that storm........... Dropped 6 inches instead of the 25 inches ( Forecasted)

Well I went from expecting 12-24" to ZERO in 24 hours, so don't feel too sorry for yourself over it!

Wow, I wasn't looking at the models back then... but those maps sure are amazing. I guess it's a good thing I wasn't, becuase as depressed as I was just from seeing the TV weathermen abandon their forecasts, I can't imagine the pain of seeing those runs for several days only to get nothing...

Honestly, we need another surprise, from expecting nothing to getting 1-2 feet to take away the pain of 2001 ... I wasn't doing any forecasting or posting on messageboards at the time, and didn't learn about the severe bust until after I joined the MB's in late 2002 ...

[Kelly]

hmmm, but notice what were misisng here, there isn't any 50/50 low, the NAO is mostly positive, and the vortex is out of the picture.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes
We need a 50/50 LOW!

[donsutherland1]

Kelly,

Yes, it was fun to look at the ECMWF ahead of this event. Its appealing look made the pain of the actual event--at least for some of us who suffered from shattered expectations of a major snowfall--all the greater.

For me, although the big snows did not result, there was at least some snow and ice, as well.

[Heady Guy]

As much as I liked the look of it on the exteneded, it seems this winter many aspects look good of the computer screen/paper and then fade away as the date approaches. I am still holding out hope that something develops in the next 2 weeks, if not its time to count the cards and look forward to an active spring.