AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CST MON FEB 23 2004
.DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE PCPN HAS MANAGED TO STAY OUT OF SE TX THUS FAR THIS
AFTN AS THE LATEST S/W MOVES NEWD JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. SOME
CLEARING NOTED OVER THE FAR W/SWRN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AS THE WARM
FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES ONSHORE. WILL LIKELY DROP POPS JUST A TOUCH FOR
COASTAL/CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT...BUT KEEP THEM HIGH FOR NRN ZONES AS
THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE ACTION. WILL ALSO ADD DENSE FOG FOR THE OVER-
NIGHT PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
(BOTH SFC AND UPPER) RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGS OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND BROAD DI-
FLUENCE ALOFT WE HAVE THE MAKINGS OF AN ACTIVE WX DAY FOR TOMORROW.
WE WILL FLIRT WITH SOME TSRA TONIGHT...BUT THE REAL FUN EXPECTED TO
START TOMORROW AOA 15Z UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. SKIES TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY MOVE OFF AND THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS. BUILDING
RIDGE TO QUIET THINGS THROUGH FRIDAY (BEFORE IT ALL STARTS UP AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND). LONG RANGE GUIDANCE PUSHING ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
TROF/LOW ACROSS SUNDAY. LIKE THIS CURRENT ONE...THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE/POSITIVELY TILTED...BUT PERHAPS WITH THE BULK
OF THE ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER..THE ONE AFTER THAT (SHOULD IT
PAN OUT) COULD MAKE THE END OF NEXT WEEK "INTERESTING" ONCE AGAIN. IN THE MEANWHILE...BEAR WATCH FIRMLY IN PLACE. 41/45
Does the forecaster mean interesting as in a chance of winter precip or another chance of severe weather? Could someone explain what the models show for this time period?
I wonder what this means?
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I wonder what this means?
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