Some thoughts on Potential Carolina Winter Storm...

[Stormsfury]

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My forecast/prognostic discussion)

[Wannabewxman79]

You know I am not sure what this means for me up here in Raleigh but if it doesn't snow at least 5 inches I don't want it here. I am ready for warmer weather if it can't do more than 2 inches of snow. I hope this is the last time we have to talk about this until December.......But good job regardless Storm

[wxbrad]

Fury the interesting thing about that upslope is that is could be rain at higher elevations due to a reverse laspe rate due to the low level CAD. Some cooling with take place with the lift, but wouldn't be surprise to see rains in Asheville with still frozen all the way down to CAE.

I will tell you this the Southern Mnts of NC are the wettest spots in NC due to the SE upslope. Rosman in Transylvania county is the wettest ASOS in the state, 91.72" annual rainfall with a max of 129.60".

Actually come to think of it the biggest snowfall in NC was in the smokies. Newfound, Gap in the park. 60" on April 2-6 1987.

[Stormsfury]

Fury the interesting thing about that upslope is that is could be rain at higher elevations due to a reverse laspe rate due to the low level CAD. Some cooling with take place with the lift, but wouldn't be surprise to see rains in Asheville with still frozen all the way down to CAE.

I will tell you this the Southern Mnts of NC are the wettest spots in NC due to the SE upslope. Rosman in Transylvania county is the wettest ASOS in the state, 91.72" annual rainfall with a max of 129.60".

Thanks for the information about the SE Upslope ... I got a chance to coordinate with CHS WFO tonight (since I had a spotter training session - basically a refresher for me since severe weather season is around the corner) ... and basically, this area could be cutting it close for wintry weather as well towards Thursday...

[Erica]

Things could get even more impressive if the vorticity was more concentrated, which would encourage the s/w to close off at 500mb. The ETA at 60 hours almost gets it, as the trough axis tilts negative, but by 66 hours, the vort energy is too spread out to let that happen, so it remains an open wave.

[Erica]

Oh, and excellent discussion, Mike!

[Stormsfury]

Oh, and excellent discussion, Mike!

Thanks, Erica. Just got a look at the GGEM/RGEM and the RGEM breaks out frozen precip in 48 hours across NE GA/Western Carolinas...

[Erica]

It could be an interesting scenario for the North Georgia mountains as well, if the RGEM is correct.

[Stormsfury]

It could be an interesting scenario for the North Georgia mountains as well, if the RGEM is correct.

With the coordination with a met at CHS tonight, the profiles actually show the wedge making it as far south as NE FL ... and with a SW expansion definitely could put NE GA in the wintry scenario as well ... not so sure about ATL ... but with the H5 low, I couldn't rule out some flurries as it swings east of there.

SF

[Erica]

That's a pretty unusual occurrence when the Cold air damming actually makes it into Northern Florida. Now, of course it isnt going to produce wintry precipitation all the way down to Jacksonville, but definately your region, and prehaps most of northern and central Georgia could see a quick changeover before the precipitation is already off to the east. Per the ETA, the s/w doesn't form a 500mb low, because the vorticity isn't packaged up as much as what it would have to be, so there isn't much help from that in respect to a cold pocket forming underneath what would be a closed low. With the high nosing down from the north the stage could be set for a significant winter storm for most across the Southern Mid Atlantic and even perhaps to the coast later on, once the low forms offshore and can get some good cold air advection going, in conjunction with the high to the north.

[donsutherland1]

Very nice discussion, SF.

[Stormsfury]

That's a pretty unusual occurrence when the Cold air damming actually makes it into Northern Florida. Now, of course it isnt going to produce wintry precipitation all the way down to Jacksonville, but definately your region, and prehaps most of northern and central Georgia could see a quick changeover before the precipitation is already off to the east. Per the ETA, the s/w doesn't form a 500mb low, because the vorticity isn't packaged up as much as what it would have to be, so there isn't much help from that in respect to a cold pocket forming underneath what would be a closed low. With the high nosing down from the north the stage could be set for a significant winter storm for most across the Southern Mid Atlantic and even perhaps to the coast later on, once the low forms offshore and can get some good cold air advection going, in conjunction with the high to the north.

The previous icestorm that crippled the Midlands of South Carolina was a pure classic with the wedge extending SW and West into GA and even NE AL! .. I'm not saying this one does the same, but the wedge depiction has been kind of a sneaky wedge, just like the last crippling storm ... kept trending stronger and stronger... Anyway, IF the wedge does make it to NE FL ... the SFC low transfer MAY occur slightly further southeast (as evidenced by the placement of the 1st SFC LOW developing in the Western GOM tomorrow which comes to a point to around the coast of the FLA Panhandle) ... and IF the coastal becomes stronger, more cold air wraps down and provided the moisture fields remain (and potentially a deformation zone around the H5 low), things get very interesting for the Coastal Plain with a quick but possibly decent shot of snow before exiting the coast (BIG IF)...

[QCWx]

Man, the ETA is not only out of sight, it's out of orbit. Even 12-15 would be a CONSERVATIVE number to throw out with the QPF it's printing out.

[wxbrad]

ETA is backing off the QPF today, looks like this thing is still a toss-up for Wed pm-Thu am. The potential is certainly there, if things comes together.

These are the kind of storm set-ups that hammer the Carolinas. I'm watching closely!!

[QCWx]

ETA still drops half an inch here...depending on ratios, 3-5". Considering how this winter has gone, I'd even take that.

[Stormsfury]

Just got in and see the new RGEM Precip Type and it's problematic for South Carolina ... including very close to the coast once again ... oh, boy

[yoda]

The new RGEM seems very interesting. The models have shown the low off the coast at one time, and next to the coast another. Hope you get some good snow/ice there SF!

[Stormsfury]

Yeah, and significant dry nose exists in CLT/CAE/GSp at this moment of post just ABV the SFC ...

[yoda]

Yes, this dry nose may present a problem to those in SC... and maybe into NC. Interesting... just looked at the 17 RUC and looked 3 hrs out.... it has a very weak 1008 low off the SC coast with little or no precip....

[QCWx]

Anyone wanna bet which way the 18Z ETA trends? I'm guessing 50 miles N.