No Snow for Central NC

[Suncat]

FXUS62 KRAH 250809
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EST WED FEB 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER COMPLETELY TOSSING OUT THE ETA TUESDAY... THE 00Z GFS RUN COMES IN VERY SIMILAR TO THAT RUN FOR WHAT IS NOW THE 60 HOUR FORECAST (12Z FRIDAY). THIS AFTER THE 12Z GFS AND ETA RUNS HAD THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING MORE EAST NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS OF THE ETA AND GFS MAY MERELY BE THE LATEST
FLIP-FLOP. THE UKMET CONTINUES THE OLD GFS SOLUTION OF MINIMAL PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HPC NOTES ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECAST SUGGEST THE ETA GFS TRACK MAY BE TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST. THICKNESS SUGGEST THIS COULD BE A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH AND UKMET AMOUNTS WOULD NOT EVEN APPROACH ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE WINTER...UNCERTAINTY WILL RESTRICT THE FORECAST AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR MOVE IN THE FORECAST WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ITS VERIFICATION IS STILL SIGNIFICANT. ANOTHER LOOK AT A MODEL RUN LIKELY WILL NOT HELP MUCH GIVEN PAST HISTORY BUT IT CAN NOT HURT.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY UNCHANGED ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY. MONDAY RAIN CHANCES NOW LOOK MORE LIKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY ON THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.

[hurricanedude]

thats not what there saying.........there just proving that models STINK!!!!

[ncwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 AM EST WED FEB 25 2004

.UPDATE...

THU-THU NIGHT...FOLLOWING COMPREHENSIVE MODEL REVIEW AND DISCUSSIONS
WITH HPC...POPS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR LATE THU AND THU NIGHT TO
INDICATE CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE CWA AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT...SOUTH OF WILSON TO LAURINBURG...WHERE POTENTIALS OF 1-3
INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW WILL BE ADVERTISED.

THIS IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITHOUT MUCH DIGGING FROM THE
NORTHERN BRANCH JET...ESSENTIALLY A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO A
POTENTIAL BANDING EVENT TWO WEEKS AGO. THERE IS PLENTY OF UPSTREAM
DEEP CONVECTION TO UPSET THE BALANCE IN THE MODELS...WHICH MAY BE
THE REASON FOR RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. MODELS DO HAVE A COMMON
FEATURE THOUGH...AND THAT IS A CONCENTRIC TYPE UPPER LOW/VORT MAX
AND A CORRESPONDING QPF MAX THAT STAYS SOUTH AND HUGS THE COAST
BEFORE DEPARTING EAST.

IF THIS PANS OUT...RESULTING CONVECTION SHOULD HELP CONFINE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND NEAR THE COAST AND INHIBIT INFLOW INLAND.
BANDING HOWEVER...IS A POSSIBILITY AND THE LATEST MM5 DEPICTS THIS
CHARACTER BETTER THAN THE LARGER SCALE MODELS. GIVEN THE LATEST PATH
PROJECTIONS...BANDING FOR TIGHTER SWATHS COULD BE IN OR NEAR THE
I-95 CORRIDOR...OR ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ROCKY-MOUNT WILSON AREA AND
LAURINBURG SOUTHERN PINES AREAS.

A STATEMENT IN ADDITION TO THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED IN
THESE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE NOON

[Lowpressure]

Snow coming that way as of last forecast,

[wrkh99]

NC is going to get hammered