next winter wx event potential.

[WXBUFFJIM]

A winter storm could potentially drop significant snowfall from northern Georgia into the western and central Carolinas and possibly extending northward into southern Virginia Thursday night through Friday. In addition to the wintry precipitation aspect to this, there is also potential for prolonged north northeasterly winds along the Virginia and North Carolina coasts. This will mean beach erosion and coastal flooding is a possibility by Friday and Friday night for the Virginia and North Carolina beaches.

An area of low pressure along the central Gulf Coast this evening will track towards the Carolina coast by later Thursday. As this are of low pressure tracks off the Carolina coast, winds and seas will increase near the coastal waters of Virginia and North Carolina with seas of 10-15 feet possible. This will mean coastal flooding is a real possibility with beach erosion potential Friday and Friday night. Gale force winds are likely south of the VA/NC border Friday and Friday night with gusts over 35 knots expected. Areas north of the NC/VA border including Virginia Beach could gust near gale force, but a small craft advisory is expected to be hoisted for Friday and Friday night for the Virginia coast including the lower Chesapeake Bay.

In addition to the coastal concerns, there is also concern for wintry precipitation, which could be significant with western North Carolina being in the area for most significant snowfall. For example Ashville, North Carolina as well as Bristol, Tennessee could end up with 1 foot or more of snow before we're all said and done with this. Further south, more sleet and rain could mix in with the snow across western South Carolina and into northern Georgia. However snow totals of 4 inches or more is possible for Greenville, South Carolina, and extending southwest ward into Dawsonville in northern Georgia. That entire stretch from northern Georgia into the western Carolinas are under winter storm warnings at this time. Meanwhile further east, there are winter storm watches in effect for Winston Salem, NC, Greensboro, NC, and Raleigh, NC for Thursday night and Friday. The potential exists for 2-4" of snow in raleigh by Friday morning with higher amounts of 3-6" for Winston Salem, and Greensboro, NC. Even further north and east, special weather statements are being issued for southern and southeastern Virginia to include the tidewater area for wintry precipitation. Some inland locations such as Danville, VA points south could see 3-6" of snow. Danville is also under a winter storm watch because temperatures in interior Virginia will likely be slightly colder than what will be experienced further eastward towards the coast. However air temperatures closer to the coast are still forecast to be cold enough for some accumulating snow. However snow accumulations for the tidewater Thursday night into Friday will range from 2-3" potentially. The key to this forecast for southeast Virginia is how much cold air will be in place along the Virginia coast, and also how far north will the precipitation be. However the potential of 2-3" of snow exists for the tidewater of Virginia and into southern and possibly into central Virginia including Richmond as well. Areas south of the tidewater into the outer Banks will likely see mostly if not all rain from this storm system as too much warm air will be drawn in from the ocean down along the North Carolina coast.

This forecast is preliminary and most likely will be fine tuned as we draw closer to the event. It's even more uncertain further north into Virginia as the main question is how far north will the northern edge of precipitation shield end up. Something to keep a close eye on as we go through the next 24 hours.

Jim

[rainstorm]

sounds good

[JCT777]

There will definitely be some places in the Carolinas (and maybe SW VA) that get over 6" of snow. Good analysis, Jim.