Okay I believe!!!! One heck of a NC storm!

[wxbrad]

I'm convinced the Carolinas are in for a historical snow storm. ETA has for once had 3 consecutive runs the same. The GFS, CAN and MM% all lead to one thing. One foot plus for the I-85 corridor tomorrow through Friday. I just can’t ignore the current surface, radar and sat trends. The dew point here at CLT is down to 13f with a stiff NE wind. Can you say dynamic cooling????

This looks ugly deformation zones sets up right over the southern NC mtns and piedmont. Would be surprise to see thunder snow with heavy bands. So folk from GSP-CLT-RDU-DAN will get hammered.

Good thing I got my milk and bread and full tank of gas in my Jeep!

Little concerned with folks not heading the warnings, due to recent busts. But this is a nasty storm!!

Stay tuned!

[Stormsfury]

I'm convinced the Carolinas are in for a historical snow storm. ETA has for once had 3 consecutive runs the same. The GFS, CAN and MM% all lead to one thing. One foot plus for the I-85 corridor tomorrow through Friday. I just can’t ignore the current surface, radar and sat trends. The dew point here at CLT is down to 13f with a stiff NE wind. Can you say dynamic cooling????

This looks ugly deformation zones sets up right over the southern NC mtns and piedmont. Would be surprise to see thunder snow with heavy bands. So folk from GSP-CLT-RDU-DAN will get hammered.

Good thing I got my milk and bread and full tank of gas in my Jeep!

Little concerned with folks not heading the warnings, due to recent busts. But this is a nasty storm!!

Stay tuned!

A lot of the complacency came from the prior busts ... as I posted those soundings from the last couple of days to demonstrate just how much evaporational cooling HAD to take place, and it's still to occur ... heck, look at the Columbia area ... mid 40's - off and on sleet mixing with the rain, and other locations (Orangeburg, SC) reporting light sleet at 39º ...

Side note: temperature here dropped to 39º.

[Wannabewxman79]

Well from everything I am hearing now from all the Mets Raleigh is in the clear except for a couple of inches because of the warm nose aloft.

[wxbrad]

Looks at the other posts and the ETa snowfall, I think 10"+ is possible up near RDU

[Wannabewxman79]

Well I guess I am all more happy with your answer, I live in Cary so I guess I am a little more west than Raleigh. Not that it is going to make a difference........

[Stormsfury]

The ETA has two incredible discrepancies ...

First, too aggressive with coastal troughs in CAD scenarios, and this is no different ... the second ... being too aggressive with the H85 WAA (due to overstrengthening the H85 jet) and low, and thus which brings RDU precariously close and ABV the 850mb 0ºC line after 27 hours ...

Plus, for the life of me, I cannot see this kind of warming with that much QPF falling through an incredibly dry airmass (as shown on those soundings I posted on another thread) ... dynamic and evaporational cooling processes would induce glaciation of the low-level clouds, so IF it were to start out as sleet, given the cooling processes, easily clicks over to snow. And I don't see the 850mb warming ABV FRZ until after the prime event is done ...

SF

[wxbrad]

yeah, cary and anything west has a better chance for more snow. Cary isn't that the best city to live in the country? Saw that on Forbes.com or money.com. Love that area, great soccer up that way!

[wxbrad]

Fury,
I agree makes no sense to me. Did you see the GSP AFD? They were throwing out the ETA, now they are buying it heavily due to what is happening to our South.

[Wannabewxman79]

Yeah it was voted Hottest City in America......They do have a great vacant soccer stadium up here in Cary. Vacated by the now defunked Carolina Courage.......Still have UNC I guess....UGH Hate the Tarheels.....Can you tell I go to NC State? ha ha Anyway, I was wondering about that warming SF but I guess it will be a wait and see thing.

[wxbrad]

The only reason it's not a warning yet, is due to timing, they will upgrade with the overnight shift. Before 4am! Especially west of RDU. I hate UNC and Duke myself. I went to Ohio State and played soccer so ACC is still soccer country to me!

[Stormsfury]

Fury,
I agree makes no sense to me. Did you see the GSP AFD? They were throwing out the ETA, now they are buying it heavily due to what is happening to our South.

Yeah, I know ... but this system is wrapping up more and more and drawing a copious amount of moisture into itself ...

BTW, there were NO MEXICAN OBS for the 00z ETA run tonight ...

Also, rain has stopped but NNE winds have strengthened in the last 20-30 minutes, and temperatures now down to 38º here ...

[Stormsfury]

OMG! Charlotte's DP down to 8º!!!

<pre>
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHARLOTTE CLOUDY 42 8 24 NE10 30.15R
</pre>

[wxbrad]

yeah, holy cow!!!!

[Wannabewxman79]

Ok I am still relatively new to the Met scene, so when you have dewpoints running lower and lower like we all are having, does that mean dropping lots of precip. into the atmosphere will drop the temps to about half the difference between the DP and Temp? or something like that....

[wxbrad]

that's roughly what that means, but you can expect some serious cooling once the precip falls into that dry layer. I like for every 2 degrees of dewpoint you moisten the air you drop the air temp 1 degree. Seems to work for me!

[Wannabewxman79]

Thats cool thanks for the info. I thought I heard that before somewhere......what is the difference in the wet bulb temp and the dew point? I know you are going to get tired of this so this is the last question.

[Stormsfury]

that's roughly what that means, but you can expect some serious cooling once the precip falls into that dry layer. I like for every 2 degrees of dewpoint you moisten the air you drop the air temp 1 degree. Seems to work for me!

Taking 42º with 24% humidity yields a 31.6ºF wet-bulb calculation ... but this is based on normal conditions ... these aren't normal conditions ...

Go HERE for the calculator

The dewpoints here continue to drop off again without the rainfall and the temperatures are responding by falling off ... down to 41º in CHS, and 39º here (38º now)

[wxbrad]

Thanks fury, just need to buy a sling phsycrometer (sp)! 

[Wannabewxman79]

Ha Ha I am guessing that measures the moisture in the atmophere......I am heading to bed for the night I guess. Thanks for keeping us informed and hope to see you tomorrow with the white stuff falling down.

[JQ Public]

we have a wetbulb of 26 degrees as of now. looking good! How much will we have at say 8am???