And here I thought

[azsnowman]

And here I thought winter was over for all intents and purposes, just goes to show ya, "That's what I get for thinking!" "LOL!" We've had snow, rain, sleet, freezing rain, thunder AND......we're under a snow advisory!

Dennis

[Stephanie]

See that Dennis! I hope it turns to all snow and you get 50"!!!

[azsnowman]

AFDFLG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
250 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2004

.SYNOPSIS...COLD LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS A RESULT...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
STORM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW BACK TO ARIZONA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
EAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING A COLDER AND MUCH MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS INTO ARIZONA BY TONIGHT. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
SNOWS WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE
SIGNIFICANTLY. WE WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM
TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE STATE THROUGH
SUNDAY...SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO END. AFTER A BREAK SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE PAC
NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY CUT OFF NEAR YUMA TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL
KEEP THURS/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE TROUGH
WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
PETERSON.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WSW ABOVE 5000 FEET TONIGHT AZ
ZONES 15/16.

[PTrackerLA]

Well it looks like your winter certainly is not over yet. We'll be in the 70's all week next week .

[azsnowman]

YUP....this is gonna be one of those years when it snows, not much mind you BUT......it will keep snowing until May 1st! I've seen 4 feet of snow on April 15th THEN......wildfire season started on the 15th of May. Strange area I live in LOL! It doesn't matter HOW much snow we get, fire season ALWAYS starts in May, why? The SPRING WINDS.....we have winds here that are unlike ANY in the nation I swear!

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

the Spring Winds but those below zero dewpoints with 80 degree temperatures down here. I've seen the Humidity drop as low as 1-2% down here in May.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Now....does THIS sound promising or WHAT?

HOWEVER...THINK IT WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
COLD ENOUGH BELOW THE MID LEVEL STABILIZING CAP TO CONTINUE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE A FACTOR. EVEN ON
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE UTAH
AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE RIM...IT JUST
ISN'T GOING TO DRY OUT THAT MUCH. PROBABLY WILL END ALL POP THREAT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIKE A BIG STORM IS ON THE WAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...IF THE PATH OF THE LOW JOGS ANY FURTHER SOUTH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE CONFINED TO YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND LOCATIONS SOUTHWARD. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.


Dennis

[azsnowman]

the Spring Winds but those below zero dewpoints with 80 degree temperatures down here. I've seen the Humidity drop as low as 1-2% down here in May.

Steve

Yup......I forgot to add THAT part, it gets SO dry here in the spring with the winds...you can ALMOST jump start a dead battery on a car with just a touch of your finger due to static electricity!

Dennis

[btangy]

The storm that's over Texas right now dumped 4.05 inches of rain here in a 12 hour period 00Z-12Z last Thurs, so beware... nasty storms in CA usually translate to very nasty storms back east. Caused quite a bit of widespread flooding and mudslides. Believe our one week rainfall was right around 6 inches, but we're still about 2-3 inches below normal.

[Anonymous]

And here I thought winter was over for all intents and purposes, just goes to show ya, "That's what I get for thinking!" "LOL!" We've had snow, rain, sleet, freezing rain, thunder AND......we're under a snow advisory!

Dennis

Ugh, winter mind as well be over here in Pittsburgh. Sunny and 50's yesterday, and 60's today! I can't say I'm going to complain, but I wouldn't mind just one more snow storm. Maybe we'll get one in March.

[azsnowman]

Well......this could be a VEEEERY interesting week needless to say:

VERY WEAK S/WV RIDGE TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOWERS HGHTS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT BEING HANDLED
VERY WELL BY MODELS. SOLUTIONS VARY FROM A CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TO A CUTOFF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO.
THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL MAKE FOR HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA. USING A MODEL AVERAGE...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
MONDAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE YET ANOTHER WAVE REDEVELOPS PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 60 POPS FOR NOW...NO SPS IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.
PETERSON.


Dennis

[azsnowman]

OH BOY!!!! Can't wait till the wind kicks in this morning

Hazardous Weather Outlook



WHITE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ

345 AM MST SUN FEB 29 2004




TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. HIGHS 32 TO 42 ABOVE 7000 FEET...39 TO 48 BELOW 7000 FEET.
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY... WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH... LOWS 10 TO 18 ABOVE 7000 FEET...18 TO 25 BELOW 7000 FEET.
MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY... LIGHT WINDS... HIGHS 34 TO 44 ABOVE 7000 FEET...41 TO 49 BELOW 7000 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW LIGHT WINDS. LOWS AROUND 23 ABOVE 7000 FEET...24 TO 30 BELOW 7000 FEET.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW... SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HIGHS 29 TO 39 ABOVE 7000 FEET...37 TO 44 BELOW 7000 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW LOWS 20 TO 25 ABOVE 7000 FEET...25 TO 30 BELOW 7000 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW... HIGHS 31 TO 41 ABOVE 7000 FEET...39 TO 46 BELOW 7000 FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW LOWS 17 TO 22 ABOVE 7000 FEET...22 TO 27 BELOW 7000 FEET.
THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW... HIGHS 33 TO 43 ABOVE 7000 FEET...41 TO 48 BELOW 7000 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW LOWS 19 TO 24 ABOVE 7000 FEET...24 TO 29 BELOW 7000 FEET.
FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY... HIGHS 35 TO 45 ABOVE 7000 FEET...43 TO 50 BELOW 7000 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR... LOWS 19 TO 24 ABOVE 7000 FEET...24 TO 29 BELOW 7000 FEET.
SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY... HIGHS 39 TO 49 ABOVE 7000 FEET...47 TO 54 BELOW 7000 FEET. =


Dennis