severe wx threat becoming quite low at this point!

[WXBUFFJIM]

On this leap day of February 29, 2004, why not we look back at some of the more active severe weather periods of the month of February. One of the more active severe weather days was on February 5th with 7 tornado reports and February 6th with up to 3 tornado reports, some of those with damage such as roofs being blown off homes and mobile homes destroyed, things like that. There were a few more tornadoes later in the month, mainly across Florida including one in Miami Dade County in Adventura back on the 25th of February. There was wind damage in that storm as well. So given the time of year, it's certainly been rather active, but in a more climotologically favored area this time of year, and that's along the Gulf coast.

Severe weather threat today looks very sparse at best. Limited instability is precluding a bigger severe weather outbreak despite the fact we have a very dynamic upper level trough moving through. As a result, the threat for severe weather is very minimal and the area of greatest risk could be across eastern and central Kansas, closer to where the upper low is. But once again, extensive cloud cover within the warm sector is precluding a severe weather episode, and thus don't expect anything more than a strong wind gust or two possible across eastern Texas into western Arkansas and eventually into parts of Missouri as well as the main dynamics from that upper low is shifting north of there into Kansas and eventually northeastward from there.

The area of greater concern maybe near the upper low today and it's not a huge concern either. While capes are very meager at best, strong forcing and a stong wind field would indicate and suggest some isolated severe in the form of a few damaging wind reports potentially across eastern kansas into western Missouri today into this evening. These storms today will be generally low topped bands of heavier showers with gusty winds, but little if any lightning. The severe threat is not widespread, but at least warrants a slight risk across the eastern Sunflower state today.

By Monday, this upper storm with the associated surface low tracks northeast into the Omaha area early in the morning, then weakens as it reaches the western Great Lakes later in the day. Severe threat on Monday again looks minimal. A few damaging gusts or a hail report or two are possible across northern Illinois into eastern Iowa. The amount of boundary layer moisture associated with this thing is not that impressive. However should some surface heating combine with cold air aloft, then enough instability could warrant a isolated severe threat across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois with isolated hail or damaging gusts. Any storms that do form will likely be low topped tomorrow in this particular area. Thus generally heavier showers with gusty winds, but little if any lightning. Once again moisture and instability is very null at best and isolated severe weather is the result.

More on this later. However I'm not too impressed with this being a widespread severe weather episode at all the more I look at this!!!

Jim

[Guest]

I agree, Jim. Maybe a couple of hail/wind reports, but isolated at best.