SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN: IN, IL, SE IA, S WI..... TODAY!

[yoda]

There appears to be a good risk for severe thunderstorms today across these areas. As a low will be moving NE into Canada, a warm front will lift north to the IL/WI border. A cold front will sweep in from the west. Development should hold off until early afternoon.

It also appears, per SPC, that the best threat for tornadoes this afternoon will be in C and N IL. Low level shear should provide for at least a few suprecells, and maybe a tornado or two. However, Large Hail appears to be the greatest threat due to the very low WBZ temps. Stay tuned for possible updates this afternoon from your local NWS offices/TV stations/radios for possible updates on this potential severe weather event.

[wx247]

New weather watch coming shortly...


Potential for tornadoes exist!

[Guest]

New weather watch coming shortly...


Potential for tornadoes exist!

Here's the text for the MD:

Code: Select all

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN IA / NERN MO / W CENTRAL AND NWRN
IL / SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 011606Z - 011730Z

LINE OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING ATTM SW OF DSM NEAR WEAK SURFACE WARM
FRONT / JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CENTER.  CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH WW LIKELY REQUIRED BY 01/17Z

CONTINUED HEATING WITHIN DRY SLOT ACROSS NERN MO / ERN IA / W
CENTRAL AND NWRN IL COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALLOW CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION... WITH AOB 500
J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ANTICIPATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE
LIMITED INSTABILITY...FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB
LAYER SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED BUT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. 

STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.  ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
COLD /-24 TO -26C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT LARGE HAIL
WITHIN LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...STRONG WIND FIELD SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY LOW CLOUD BASES WITHIN RELATIVELY COOL
/ MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES EWD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 03/01/2004

PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

43199319 43499092 43168898 40348886 39459162 41349319
42549482



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[Guest]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1116 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPDATE ADJUSTED PCPN AND TEMP TRENDS SOMEWHAT. NRLY STACKED
UPR LOW SLOWLY CROSSING MO RVR. VISIBLE STLT IMAGERY NOW SHOWS
SC/CU ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH MID/HIGH CLDS OVR ALL BUT NRN PTNS. 16Z
SFC ANLYS PLACES FILLING LOW BTWN KOLU-KFET WITH ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
RIGHT ACRS IA. OCCLUDED THEN WRMFNT NOTED FM LOW TWRD KALO INTO NRN
IL. MSTR AXIS NOW E OF FA MAINLY INTO IL.

15Z RUC CONTS TO PUSH DEEPER INSTABILITY IN TERMS OF K
INDICES...SHOWALTERS AND MID LVL THETA-E LAPSE RATES OFF TO OUR N
AND E SO DEEP...USING THE TERM LOOSELY...CONVECTIVE THREAT IS
DMSHG. VRY MINOR SFC BASED POTENTIAL STILL THERE ACRS FAR ERN SXNS
HWVR WITH SBCAPES UP TO ARND 500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN...BUT MAINLY
AFFECTING DVN FA RATHER THAN OURS...SO FEEL SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAY BE
A BIT TOO FAR W. KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN FCST TO BLEND INTO
OUTLOOK...BUT APPS THAT CHC DCRG. BETTER CHCS LOOK TO BE FM MS RVR
EWD.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS. WL SEE LTL CHG WRN PTNS AS SFC LOW NRS...AND
XPC LTL ADDITIONAL REBOUND IN ERN PTNS AS WE HAVE DVLPD LOW CLDS IN
MOST LOCATIONS. KEPT HITTING WNDS FAIRLY HARD...SPCLLY SRN HALF S
OF FNT WHERE WNDS ARE QUITE GUSTY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.