Make up my mind!

[azsnowman]

HELP! Would SOMEONE help me make up my MIND? LOL! I mean, this COULD be the storm of storms ~or~ it could be a HUGE BUST O RAMA!

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
400 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FROM 6 PM
TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUES A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF UTAH EFFECTIVE FROM 6 PM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS OF UTAH AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN 1 FOOT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST UTAH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

$$



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
710 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM EASTWARD...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
YAVAPAI COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FROM 4000-5000 FEET DURING THIS
STORM. RAIN AND SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.



Dennis

[azsnowman]

And NOW.....if you go by the AFD, WHO KNOWS?

AFDFLG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
305 AM MST MON MAR 01 2004

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER STORM
APPROACHES ARIZONA. BY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THIS STORM WILL BRING
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ARIZONA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
STATE TODAY AND MOISTEN THE AIRMASS FROM THE TOP DOWN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT DYNAMICS AND STABILITY WEAK ENOUGH
TO PREVENT ANY PROBLEMS.

THIS IS ALL IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF PORTLAND
WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH TO A POSITION NEAR SAN DIEGO BY TUESDAY. 06Z
MODEL RUNS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES FROM THE 00Z RUNS
TO KEEP THE FORECAST HIGHLY VARIABLE. IN FACT...ENOUGH DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN MODEL 500MB LOW LOCATIONS THAT THE FORECAST COULD BE EITHER
FOR ALMOST NO SNOW AT ALL...OR A MAJOR STORM. DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY AT THIS POINT...WE ARE FORCED TO BROADBRUSH MUCH OF THE
RIM COUNTRY SOUTHWARD WITH LIKELY POPS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DECIDE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
PLUME WILL BE. AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM PROBABLY MORE OR LESS OUT OF
IT FOR THIS STORM EITHER WAY.



Dennis

[Stephanie]

It almost sounds as if you are experiencing the same "will it or won't it" scenerio that the Midatlantic and Northeast has this past February. I hope that it is a big one for you Dennis!

[azsnowman]

It almost sounds as if you are experiencing the same "will it or won't it" scenerio that the Midatlantic and Northeast has this past February. I hope that it is a big one for you Dennis!

Let's hope so, God knows we NEED the moisture and time is slipping away...10 weeks and counting till wildfire season cranks up again UNLESS, this "IS THE" storm!

Dennis

[Rainband]

Good luck on getting that storm Dennis. Anything to help qwell the wildfire season

[JCT777]

I hope your area gets a lot of precip from that storm, Dennis.

[azsnowman]

Well folks, you make the call "SHEEESH!"

UPSTREAM OBS/
RADAR INDICATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE. DP'S OUT
THERE IN THE 30'S WHILE DP'S ACROSS THE CWA GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20'S. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU AND WESTERN RIM LOOKS GOOD FOR LATER TODAY AS THIS WV PASSES.

H5 LOW CENTER PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH THRU CA TODAY AND TOMORROW AND
THEN BOTTOM OUT OVER N MEX ON WED. HAVE NOTED SOME MODEL RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES. CURRENT MODEL TRACKS NOT FAVORABLE FOR A BIG EVENT
FOR THE CWA. THE JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE WEST AS THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE LOW PUTS CWA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS
OVER THE SOUTHERN RIM AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS WITH TIME BY
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND MESO-ETA SHOW MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO S AZ
TOMORROW. ALTHO LITTLE HGT FALL CHANGES NOTED OVER THE CWA AS THE
COLD CORE POOL AND MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA
HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHERN RIM AND WHITE
MTN. CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. WILL TAKE CLOSER LOOK AT QPF
AND SNOW AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN RIM AND WHITES WITH
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND AFTER STATE CO-ORDINATION CALL. DF

[azsnowman]

In the words of Charlie Brown..."AUUUUGH!" This is making me NUKIN' FUTS!


A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY AND
TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL NOT YET CERTAIN...TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE INCH AND
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH MAY OCCUR. SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BEGIN NEAR 6000 FEET TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO
NEAR 3500 FEET BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE RISING TO 4500
FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 18 INCHES MAY OCCUR ABOVE 6000 FEET BEFORE
THE STORM DEPARTS THE AREA.

A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
RETURN TO DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.


Dennis

[Chris the Weather Man]

Dennis, I hope you get THE storm. over 73 inches of snow.......

[azsnowman]

*sigh*

FOR THIS FCST
PACKAGE HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TONIGHT AND INCREASED THEM FOR TOMORROW
OVER THE S CWA. WILL ALSO ISSUED SPS FOR RETURN OF PRECIP TO THE CWA
AND POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL OVER THE RIM AND WHITES.

[azsnowman]

"ROFLMAO!" I give up.......if it does, it does, if it don't, it don't!

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FCST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MODELS RUN
TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS H5 LOW OVER N CA
CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE LOW IS EXPECTED OVER S CA
BY MID DAY TOMORROW. 18Z MESO-ETA TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH THRU N BAJA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT VS A MORE EASTERLY TRACK ON THE 12Z RUN. THIS TRACK
WOULD MEAN LESS DYNAMICS AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS OVER THE CWA. STILL
WEAK LIFT INDICATED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND AIDED BY MODERATE
OROGRAPHIC SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 700MB LEVEL. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLOW
TO SATURATE. DP'S ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL ONLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. EXPECT THE SOUTHERN RIM AND WHITE'S TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIP WITH SNOW LEVELS OF 5000 TO 6000 FT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A SMALL BREAK IN THE
WX. A WEAK S/WV MOVING THRU THE GREAT BASIN WILL CLIP THE CWA ON
THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.


Dennis

[Stephanie]

It sounds like TWC - the forecast changes with every model run.

[Aslkahuna]

I don't read Flag's AFDs but I do look at the model runs and they show a remarkable lack of consensus as to where the ULL will go for something due in here in 48 hours. The track ranges from one that gives practically nothing to all of Arizona to one that dumps all over the Rim and Whites so there is a great deal of uncertainty. Hopefully the runs will come together tomorrow though at the moment I'm not sure they will.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

If it helps you all in AZ any, we've had about 1/3" of light to moderate rain off and on (mostly on) since around 6-6:30 this evening here. Raining moderately at the moment.

[azsnowman]

Well Steve, the models STILL don't know what the heck is gonna happen as evident by this mornings AFD:

MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING WHERE THE BEST PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL SET UP...AND ALSO DECIDING WHAT WILL FORM THE PLUME...SOME
MODELS FOCUSING MOISTURE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WHILE OTHERS USING THE 300MB TO 500MB DEFORMATION AXIS. MOISTURE
PLUME WILL ALSO BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE DUE TO THE FARTHER WESTWARD
POSITIONING...BUT THIS BEING COUNTERED BY UPSLOPE AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RIM. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SOME
WEAK HGHT FALLS FROM THE NORTH ACT UPON RESIDUAL MOISTURE THE AFTER
MAIN LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CHANGED IF A DYNAMIC MOISTURE
PLUME DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS THE LOW IS JUST TOO
FAR AWAY.


Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

will probably continue until the storm makes the turn inland because everything depends upon where the turn is made and this winter the atmosphere has been most resistant to even thinking about doing what the models say. Unfortunately, as what we saw with the last system to come through, what happens in SoCA has little bearing as to what happens in AZ-particularly Baja Arizona since we are south of the CA/MX Border in terms of latitude-in fact SV is even further south than Yuma with
Douglas being further south than any of the western towns and cities outside of Texas (tied with Antelope Wells NM).

Steve

[azsnowman]

And here's another uncertain AFD:

.DISCUSSION...THE CHALLENGE CONTINUES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED
LOW LOCATED OVER S CA COAST THIS MORNING. LOW PROGGED TO CONTINUE
DIGGING SOUTH AIDED BY 150 KT JET ON THE BACKSIDE. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW WILL GO. ETA MODELS TAKE THE LOW CENTRAL BAJA
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. GFS
DOES NOT TAKE LOW AS FAR SOUTH OR WEST AS THE ETA. ALSO A WIDE VARIETY
OF QPF PROGS BTWN MODELS. BOTH MODELS NOT HANDLING PLUME OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS THE SE CWA. THAT SAID...AIR MASS OVER THE
CWA IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BOTH GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS PUT CWA UNDER
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT PRECIP TODAY TO BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THINGS COULD GET
INTERESTING TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OUT
OF S AZ. THIS ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE. WILL TAKE
CLOSER LOOK AT THIS WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO
INCREASE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR ZONE 17. DF


Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

there's a wide disparity in QPF between models-especially between the GFS and all of the other models. The GFS would have us believe that I would have record rainfall for March down here with up to nearly 2 feet of snow for you. The Meso-Eta which I prefer for use down here with QPF since it's the only model aside from the MM5 that resolves the Huachucas, has us with 0.3in QPF which is close to the 0.25in that I have been going for the past two days and is quite respectable for a March system as opposed to the 1-2inches the GFS has for us. There's a dry slot over us that is evident on the IR imagery and until the low shifts eastward it will remain over us and eastern AZ. TUS in their AFD has the heaviest snow along the Border since the ULL is expected to remain south of the Border as it tracks across. All models are slower in their movement so the pattern is expected to persist through Thursday.

Steve

[ColdFront77]

It wouldn't be good for forecast models to remain similar to previous runs. They are only run a few times a day and cannot take into account all of the short-term changes the atmosphere is constantly undergoing.

If the forecast stayed the same after models indicate changes, such as these, then there may easily be incorrect forecasts, which in turn will probably get us just as if not more upset.

This makes following the weather so much more fun, especially when we aren't expected to not see any precipitation, then a system develops and/or one that already exists actually ends up affecting our area. The forecast of nothing, aside from a wind shift to moderate to heavy precipitation and possible thunderstorms.

[azsnowman]

Well.....it's HERE for moment, I've got NEAR total white out conditions as I post this, I can't see my neighbors house just 25 feet away!

Dennis