Significant MODERATE Risk zone Thursday

Scott_inVA · #1 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 7:46 am

Quoting Travis Tritt

I See T-R-O-U-B-L-E

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Important to check this evening's Map to see where (if?) this gets pulled in.

Scott

Suzi Q · #2 Postby **Suzi Q** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 7:55 am

Quoting from the Wizard of Oz:

"Auntie Em! Uncle Henry! I'ts a twister! it's a twister!"

"Poor little kid, hope she makes it home alright."

"Dorothy? Dorothy? Henry, I can't find Dorothy!"

Quoting from Twister:

"The days of sniffin dirt are over"

Suzette the French Twister

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 9:34 am

Suzi, I think your signature question will be answered by the weeks ends! :eek:

This looks to be one of those outbreaks that keeps a WIDE area of NWS offices hopping!

Suzi Q · #4 Postby **Suzi Q** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 9:51 am

Yes, I think these weeks of perfecting my twister dance are FINALLY going to pay off. And they'll probably start tomorrow when I CANNOT miss class. Just my luck I suppose!

Suzette the Frustrated French Twister :grr:

#5 Postby **wx247** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 10:38 am

What are your class hours Miss Twister?

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 1:46 pm

Whoa ...

isobar · #7 Postby **isobar** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 2:34 pm

Whoa is right! You don't see that too often.
You need to move upstate a ways, Suzi!

TexasStooge · #8 Postby **TexasStooge** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 2:50 pm

OW!!! Right in the hatched area!!!

Guest · #9 Postby **Guest** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 3:01 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Whoa ...

YIKES!

I have family that lives in the St. Louis area! When those probability outlooks show hatched areas, I begin to think "oh, dear!"

Suzi Q · #10 Postby **Suzi Q** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 3:50 pm

wx 247-hours are 11:00-2:00 Mon-Thursday, 8:00-11:00 Friday.

Well with action poised to be up north a bit, might be time for a drive up to see my daughter tomorrow afternoon, provided I can get out of here and into the fun of things before it's too late. VERY CAREFULLY watch we will, as yoda would say.

Dang, so hyper on this one, have almost consumed an entire can of Pringle's reduced fat chips. Guess they're not too reduced fat if you eat a whole can, huh? :oops:

Suzette the Soon-To-Be-Unfrustrated French Twister

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 4:07 pm

Whatever you decide to do, Suzi, be very careful.

As for eating the entire can of Pringle's reduced fat chips, if they were the "regular ones," then you would of eaten that much more fat/saturated fat.

Suzi Q · #12 Postby **Suzi Q** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 4:15 pm

Well for now, I think I will take a nap and sleep off all these pringles. Plus it looks to be a long night with homework, regular chores to do and watching seven gazillion radars to see what's going on. :eek:

Suzette the suddenly swollen French Twister (burp, pardon moi mes amis) :oops:

Cheesy_Poofs · #13 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 4:19 pm

YIKES! Look at this AFD out of Little Rock!

AS FOR THURSDAY...DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM ARE REMINISCENT OF APRIL 2 1982
TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND ARKANSAS INTO AREAS TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THERE WERE 13 TORNADO FATALITIES IN ARKANSAS
THEN AND KPRX WAS DEVASTATED WITH A HIGH DEATH TOLL. HOPEFULLY IF
A TORNADO OUTBREAK UNFOLDS THIS TIME THE DEATH TOLL WILL BE LOWER IF
NOT ZERO. BIG CONCERN IS FOR FIVE STATE HIGH SCHOOL BASKETBALL
TOURNAMENTS BEING HELD ACROSS THE STATE FROM 1 PM UNTIL ABOUT 10 PM.
THREE ARE IN THIS CWA AND THE OTHER TWO ARE JUST A FEW MILES INTO
ADJACENT CWAS. WITH THE STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF MOVING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND STRONG JET DYNAMICS SHAPING UP...SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR ARKANSAS LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ACTUAL TORNADO THREAT WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS AND HEATING CAN OCCUR. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-30/US 67 TORNADO ALLEY. INCLINATION IS TO STOP
SHORT OF PUTTING TORNADOES IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF SEVERE. MAY ADJUST TIMING A LITTLE AS IT IS
LOOKING LIKE THE WORST SEVERE THREAT MAY BE AFTER 00Z IN MUCH OF THE
CWA.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PTrackerLA · #14 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 4:20 pm

Watch out in Dallas tomorrow! Welcome to severe weather season 2004!

Scott_inVA · #15 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 4:33 pm

Folks,

Today has *never* looked overly promising.

SFC Obs and the 18Zs confirm there is not a huge threat over TX/OK today (Wednesday). Lotta rain but it doesn't seem atmos sufficiently unstable for much SVR.

As Low approachs TX there could be SVR southwest/Big Bend late tonight but Thursday remins the active day.

Scott

Stormsfury · #16 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 4:40 pm

We're talking about Thursday afternoon ... today is merely setting the stage since the moisture returns are just now getting into place ... as the h5 low swings into the Southern Plains, that's when all hell is expected to break loose ...

ColdFront77 · #17 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 4:45 pm

Right, I haven't seen any discussion here [in this thread] about severe weather today, this evening or tonight (Wednesday).

Scott_inVA · #18 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 4:57 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Right, I haven't seen any discussion here [in this thread] about severe weather today, this evening or tonight (Wednesday).

SPC Day 1 has advertised potential for slight tonight. FWIW, I agree as noted in SW TX/Big Bend. When the trof starts to swing, dry air and veering *could* trigger some decent storms there tonight... but no widespread SVR. While not promising, I wouldn't want it to pop and everyone yells WTF???? :wink:

ColdFront77 · #19 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 5:33 pm

Sure the SPC Day 1 has mentioned the slight risk, but this thread hasn't mentioned it, unless Mike (Stormsfury) and me missed something.

StormCrazyIowan · #20 Postby **StormCrazyIowan** » Wed Mar 03, 2004 9:54 pm

Awwww shucks, so close, but yet, sooo far......

(Hmm, I'd be rich if I had a dollar for every time I've said that in past years)

Significant MODERATE Risk zone Thursday

Significant MODERATE Risk zone Thursday

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