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573
ACUS11 KWNS 040104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040103
TXZ000-NMZ000-040300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...W TX/FAR SERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 040103Z - 040300Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR BY 03Z
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND FAR SWRN NM. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT AND A WW MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM ABILENE
EXTENDING SWWD TO AREAS EAST OF BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE NWWD TOWARD FORT STOCKTON AND MIDLAND. THE MAF 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE NORTHWEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AS THE 850 MB JET AND MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS
EVENING. A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND
RADAR IMAGERY LOCATED NEAR THE MEXICO AND TEXAS BORDER FROM EL PASO
TO THE BIG BEND. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR
PECOS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NEWD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP FIRST IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS SOUTHWEST OF MIDLAND FROM
02Z TO 03Z. ALTHOUGH MORE CONDITIONAL BECAUSE OF THE CAP IN
PLACE...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES
FROM 03Z TO 04Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 75 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE MAF OBSERVED SOUNDING SHOWS A 7.8 C/KM
LAPSE RATE FROM 700 TO 500 MB. THIS COMBINATION COUPLED WITH THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL.
