SC Hvy Rain Potential Saturday/ Southeast Stays Active

[Stormsfury]

The models are indicating a stalling boundary and a s/w disturbance will be the focusing mechanism for a cooler, steady heavy rain event this weekend (particularly Saturday) as the potential for 1"-2" rainfalls are possible.

In GA and FL, evolution of more thunderstorms are quite possible for the weekend, particularly Saturday.

I'll have more when I have some time... I'm heading back to work now.

(I hope everyone gets a good laugh at what I said this morning at work on my signature line)

[Amanzi]

LOL at the sig Storm. Hey keep us updated

[Stormsfury]

Heads up again tomorrow in the Gulf Coast States to Northern Florida as you will be again in the slight risk of severe thunderstorms once again, tomorrow.



VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SE 7R4 25 WNW MCB 25 E JAN 30 ENE MGM 30 ENE MCN 30 SE AGS
30 SW CHS ...CONT... DAB 45 N PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BPT GLH UOX
25 NW MSL CHA GSP FLO 25 ENE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM IGM DRA NFL 70 E 4LW
55 SSE BKE 27U 10 ENE JAC 10 ENE RKS GJT 4BL GCN IGM.

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN STATES ON DAY 2
AS THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO SRN
CA/SRN AZ RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER NERN OK PER WV IMAGERY...WILL
BECOME WEAKER ON FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES TEMPORARILY CUT OFF FROM THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND MOVES SLOWLY EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK WITHIN
THE SWLY NRN STREAM FROM NRN CA/OR COAST TO THE CENTRAL-NRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY...INDUCING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS OVER PLAINS STATES.

...GULF COAST STATES...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS PROGGED OVER ERN MS/WRN AL
AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD TO CENTRAL/SRN
GA...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD INTO SRN LA. THE
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.5 TO 7.5C/KM
ASSOCIATED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES... INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME STRONGER BY AFTERNOON FROM SERN LA EWD TO SRN GA.

MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD OVER GA INTO FL...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON FROM SERN LA INTO AL/FL PANHANDLE. THERE IS A QUESTION
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE RAPID DESTABILIZATION BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA
WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT OVER S AL/GA. INCREASING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 8-9C/KM SHOULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

..AFWA.. 03/13/03

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z


[/img]

[Stormsfury]

CAD wedge has taken shape across SC and NC, with temperatures steadily falling this morning ... now down to 58 at CHS with stiff NE winds.

Heavy Rainfalls are quite likely across Coastal areas of South Carolina Friday night and particularly Saturday, and possibly lingering Saturday night as well ...

Possibly of Severe weather also across Southern GA and Florida both today and tomorrow.
Today's outlook ...

Saturday the 15th's Outlook

[HurricaneGirl]

Stormsfury's forecasts rock!!! He is so smart and he is the best. He needs to move to Jacksonville so we can start our own Weather Show... I'll be the OCM and Stormsfury can be the expert forecaster!!!

[Stormsfury]

Stormsfury's forecasts rock!!! He is so smart and he is the best. He needs to move to Jacksonville so we can start our own Weather Show... I'll be the OCM and Stormsfury can be the expert forecaster!!!

*blushing*-ILY, HG

This is the cut-off low that is responsible for the heavy rain/thunderstorms for our respective areas for Friday night/Saturday/Sunday.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

[Stormsfury]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1010 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

IN NORTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES...
BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER
PENDER ROBESON

IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES...
DARLINGTON DILLON FLORENCE GEORGETOWN
HORRY MARION MARLBORO WILLIAMSBURG

RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...IS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SHIFT UP THE COAST INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL.
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY MORNING.

REMEMBER...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE QUICK ACTION SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

JAQ



[Stormsfury]

This does include my county as well ...

FFACHS
SCZ044-045-050-152200-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
921 PM EST FRI MAR 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
BERKELEY...CHARLESTON AND DORCHESTER...

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE CHARLESTON AND NORTH CHARLESTON METRO AREAS.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS.
THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST...
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...WITHIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL OCCUR AT 515 AM
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER HIGH TIDE AT 541 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS
WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR DIVE AROUND POLICE BARRICADES.
RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN ENGULF A VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS. IF YOUR
VEHICLE STALLS IN WATER...ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER
GROUND.

A FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF
FLOODING. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CHECK PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION SHOULD
FLOODING BE OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEW SOURCE FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

$$

77/24



[Allexpert Mike]

I discussed yesterday a sfc wave of Low Pressure along the stalled front will continue to bring severe weather in the spots I said yesterday, which are Eatern Virginia, Eastern North Carolina, and Eastern South Carolina. This will be the hardest hit areas in tomorrow's threat. This wave of low pressure will continue to develop as the day progresses with nice low level convergence leading to upr level divergence allowing are storm system to deepen. We will have nice embedded s/w energy along with nice upr level energy. With nice upper lvl diffluence there will be nice speed convergence in the lower levels in the threaten area teaming up with the strong PVA creating rising air and this will contribute to the strong Upward Vertical Velocities over the threaten areas. Our mid level-upr level trough will take a neg tilt with the upper level energy heading to the east side of the trough and this will create nice favorable dynamics for this low to really develop. This will cause it take a turn northward and bring some light-moderate rain,,,,nothing big to the major cities and the I-95 corridor. The rain shield could get into Western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, but very light. The main bulk will head out to sea. With nice WAA there will be nice isentropic lift with some more moisture being drawn in from the Atlantic with nice ATL advection. Expect windy conditions from the pressure gradient setting up with a ridge out in th eATL and our sfc feature along the front which sould produce some gusty winds from E. SC-E. VA into Southern DE. There will be strong instibality with lift indicies in the range of -3 to -6. RH fields do show wide area of 90+% and it looks like cloud cover will enter the threat zone over night into the morning hours and that will limit the instibality from being much more because the sun won't get a chance to really create some problems (instibality). CAPE won't be a player with this one just like yesterday with very weak values along the coastal areas. Shear values in SC andf NC will be very high a general 350-500 m^2/s^2 with some areas in Eastern NC and Eastern SC seeing shear balues of 500-725m^2/s^2. With shear values this high something will be cooking and you can bank on large hail and some torndaic activity associated with some of the storms tomorrow in E. SC-E.NC into E. VA. Totals Total index also showing a rather unstable Atmosphere with the TT index in the range of 45-50 genrally for the threat area. So with this said watch out for the potential of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, and torrential downpours associated with some of these storms. With the absence of real goood CAPE energy and good wind fields with a strong flow aloft I doubt the tornadoes will be big, any tornadoes that hit will be in the F0-F1 criteria.

[Stormsfury]

So far, the CAD wedge remains locked in place in South Carolina.
A heavy rain shower accompanied with thunder just passed over with ATT the heaviest of the rainfalls remaining along I-95 through the Midlands to about Columbia.

Doppler Radar Estimates from 1-2 inch rainfalls have already occurred.
This was as of 3:00 pm ...
Current Radar

Rainfall Estimates

[Stormsfury]

FLOOD STATEMENT...UPDATE FOR GIVHANS FERRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
305 PM EST SAT MAR 15 2003


...RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT...

THIS PRODUCT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS: EDISTO.

FOR THE EDISTO RIVER, INCLUDING GIVHANS FERRY, MINOR FLOODING IS
FORECASTED.

FOR THE EDISTO NEAR GIVHANS FERRY, THE LATEST STAGE IS 9.9 FEET AT 2
PM SATURDAY. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST, WITH A MAXIMUM STAGE OF
11.0 FEET AT 7 PM WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS 1.0 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE STAGE WILL RISE ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 10.0 FEET AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR THE LATEST
RIVER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON

[Stormsfury]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv