Storm to Provide Reminder that Winter Lives

[donsutherland1]

Although the calendar advances steadily toward the vernal equinox and unseasonably warm weather has provided the Northeast with the "feel" of spring, winter still lives. The rapid development of a system off the Mid-Atlantic coast will reinforce this reality later tonight and tomorrow.

Several critical points are in order with respect to this storm:

• Elevation will play an important role
• Rapid deepening will encourage dynamic cooling, possible convective snows in some places, and the development of gusty northeast winds
• With temperatures having run 10° to 15° above normal in the region for the first week in March, the ground is quite warm
• The sun's angle is higher than it was in January or February and this means that temperatures will need to be colder, in general, to generate the kind of accumulations that might have been possible with a lower sun angle
• The storm will track generally east-northeastward befor turning more to the northeast at a modest rate but will pass outside the 40N-70W benchmark.

What this means is that the storm will provide only a limited period of heavy snows, particularly for those areas that experience convective snow. This will not be a repeat of the 1941 and 1967 storms for the big cities.

In those areas where convective snows occur, 4"-8" might well occur. However, most locations will see significantly less. Most locations, particularly those right along the Coast and in the Mid-Atlantic, will likely see at least some rain at the onset.

Right now, given the latest model guidance and synoptic setup, it is not likely that the heaviest snows will fall in the big cities.

At this time, my estimates are as follows:

Allentown: 1"-3"
Boston: 2" or less
Danbury: 2"-5"
Newark: 1"-3"
New York City: 1"-3"
Philadelphia: An inch or less
Providence: 2" or less
Poughkeepsie: 3"-6"
White Plains: 2"-4"
Wilmington, DE: 1.5" or less

It should be noted that given the difficulty of pinpointing convective snows, there is higher-than-normal bust potential. Should such snows fall at any given location 4" to possibly 8" could occur.

Right now, I believe that the areas with the highest likelihood of such snow lie across northern New Jersey, southeastern New York State (probably north of NYC), southern and central Connecticut and southern Rhode Island. Thus, the cities for which I have greatest concern generally include Danbury, Newark, New York City, Poughkeepsie, and White Plains.

Taking into consideration the risk of convective snows, I rate the risk of 4" and 8" snows as follows for select cities should such convective snows occur at those locations. This does not change the above forecast--which considers both the prospect of such snows occurring and that of those snows not occurring--but just provides an illustration of where accumulations might come out ahead of what is forecast should those cities experience convective snows.

With convective snows:

Danbury: 4": High; 8": Moderate
Newark: 4": Moderate; 8": Low
New York City: 4": Moderate; 8": Low
Poughkeepsie: 4": High; 8" High
White Plains: 4": High; 8": Moderate

All said, on the anniversary of two prominent March snowstorms, winter will provide a reminder that though it has hibernated in the Northeast for an extended period, it has not yet been vanquished by the forces of rising spring.

[Colin]

Sounds good to me Don! We also have to take into account if the temperature falls quicker than expected allowing for earlier snowfall changeover, accumulations would be slightly higher.

[donsutherland1]

Colin,

I agree with you. In many ways, attempting to forecast the snowfall from the upcoming storm is a challenge not much unlike trying to forecast how much precipitation will fall at given locations during a convective outbreak during the summer.

Hopefully, all snow lovers will have the chance to enjoy more snow, not less, where busts occur.

[donsutherland1]

One additional historical note:

On March 8, 1856, one of the coldest air masses ever to push into the Eastern U.S. in March was moving eastward. At the height of the cold on March 10, the temperature fell to 4 in New York City and 0 in Boston and Philadelphia. Since regular recordkeeping began, neither Boston nor Philadelphia have ever seen zero-degree readings so late in the season.

[Stephanie]

One additional historical note:

On March 8, 1856, one of the coldest air masses ever to push into the Eastern U.S. in March was moving eastward. At the height of the cold on March 10, the temperature fell to 4 in New York City and 0 in Boston and Philadelphia. Since regular recordkeeping began, neither Boston nor Philadelphia have ever seen zero-degree readings so late in the season.

Hopefully we will never see that again!

I'm not thrilled at the forecast, but it is March...

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

With the all urbanization that has occurred since that time, odds are very much against such an event occurring. Perhaps it is a once-in-a-century-or-more event.

Yesterday, spring was very much in force. For winter weather lovers, it was too much of a shock. We need to be eased into the spring. Hence, a few more doses of winter are what we require.

[Chris the Weather Man]

One additional historical note:

On March 8, 1856, one of the coldest air masses ever to push into the Eastern U.S. in March was moving eastward. At the height of the cold on March 10, the temperature fell to 4 in New York City and 0 in Boston and Philadelphia. Since regular recordkeeping began, neither Boston nor Philadelphia have ever seen zero-degree readings so late in the season.

Hopefully we will never see that again!

I'm not thrilled at the forecast, but it is March...

Hey, Maybe it will happen in March 2005. History Repeats Its Self............. Imgine that, Here, -8F in March!

[Stephanie]

Stephanie,

With the all urbanization that has occurred since that time, odds are very much against such an event occurring. Perhaps it is a once-in-a-century-or-more event.

Yesterday, spring was very much in force. For winter weather lovers, it was too much of a shock. We need to be eased into the spring. Hence, a few more doses of winter are what we require.

I'm sure that you're right don about the urbanization.

The spring fever bug bit me a few weeks ago so now I'm in that mode rather than the winter mode.

[BritBob]

Stephanie,

With the all urbanization that has occurred since that time, odds are very much against such an event occurring. Perhaps it is a once-in-a-century-or-more event.

Yesterday, spring was very much in force. For winter weather lovers, it was too much of a shock. We need to be eased into the spring. Hence, a few more doses of winter are what we require.

I'm sure that you're right don about the urbanization.

The spring fever bug bit me a few weeks ago so now I'm in that mode rather than the winter mode.

Oh aren`t we all. I`m all geared up for spring fever, even ready for the mosquito invasion that comes with it! We hit the balmy heights of 47f, last Thursday Flip-flops time for us lot up here.

Thanks Don, a well written post once again. Two notable coastal storms to watch this week, currently `just missing us`with the latest runs, certainly will be watching late Thursday.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Bob for the kind words. It will be interesting to see whether those storms can shift just enough to bring you some snow.

With respect to March 10, 1856, I'll add that Montreal saw a low temperature of -12°F (-24C) on that date.

[JCT777]

Nice discussion Don. However, not one snow flake fell in my area overnight or this morning.

[donsutherland1]

I'm very sorry to learn that you saw no snowflakes, John. Here in the NYC area, the rain changed to snow but there has been no accumulation. All said, it appears that the busts are piling up and the snow is not.

[Stephanie]

I work in Atlantic City and some people that live along the coast said that they did have to wipe some snow off of their cars this morning. I didn't see any up by me. However, the cold, rainy, raw feeling is a far cry from what we've experienced this weekend!

[donsutherland1]

My estimates were:

Allentown: 1"-3"
Boston: 2" or less
Danbury: 2"-5"
Newark: 1"-3"
New York City: 1"-3"
Philadelphia: An inch or less
Providence: 2" or less
Poughkeepsie: 3"-6"
White Plains: 2"-4"
Wilmington, DE: 1.5" or less

Final Totals:

Allentown: None (Bust: 1.0" below my range)
Boston: 0.9"
Danbury: (Bust: 1.0" below my range)
New York City: Trace (Bust: 1.0" below my range)
Newark: Trace (Bust: 1.0" below my range)
Philadelphia: None
Poughkeepsie: 3" at nearby Newburgh (with varying figures having been reported for Poughkeepsie during the course of the day and the final figure being less than the preliminary report, I'm disregarding those figures as these changes suggest snow measurement difficulties; it is possible that Poughkeepsie had more like 1"-2", which would lead to a bust. However, the less than an inch that I've seen on the latest reports is extremely unlikely)
White Plains: Trace (Bust: 2.0" below my range)
Wilmington, DE: None

All said, the storm proved to deliver light snow to the region and somewhat lighter than I had anticipated. The idea of warm ground and high sun angle worked out well. The idea for possible convective snows did not.

Note to myself: Do I have a small snow bias? To be watched closely.

[Suncat]

Cental NC is will be getting a mix of rain and snow starting sometime Tuesday afternoon and continuing until Wednesday. Temps will be too high for anything to really stick, so looks like we will just get a messy cold mix before the next warm up.

[JCT777]

Don - I think many of us in the northern Mid-Atlantic are hoping for just one more decent snow event. Especially considering how snow-less the past 6 weeks have been. At this point, I think that any possible snow event for the remainder of March (and maybe even early April) needs to be downplayed as the trend has been for storms in this area to be weaker and/or farther south/east than progged from more than 24 hours out.

[Stephanie]

We did have some snow mixing with rain yesterday afternoon down here in Atlantic City. This morning we had a few large flakes as well.

[RU848789]

Don - did Newark and NYC really report just a trace? Normally, being 20-25 miles or so NE of me (in Metuchen, Middlesex County), they usually get at least what I get, unless it's a "southern" storm - and I got 1.5" total from this one. But as I said in a thread I started yesterday, it was very strange, in that there was absolutely no snow in Rahway, 9 miles NE of Metuchen and I ascribed that to a probable elevation effect (20' vs. 120'), as that was the only reason I could think of that would have made such a difference in this case. Or was it just that we got a burst of heavier snow that accumulated faster than it melted and the areas NE of here didn't get that level of intensity to allow accumulation? The reason I was suspecting elevation/temperature was that it was snowing when I left for work and raining when I arrived in Rahway yesterday morning.