***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***
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Rob-TheStormChaser
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 44
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CST THU MAR 13 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL 800
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 41...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 42. WATCH NUMBER 41...42 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 310 PM
CST.
DISCUSSION...SE MS/AL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE COLD POOL.
GIVEN 30-35 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...DISTRIBUTION OF SBCAPE AND
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
...SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY ESE TOWARD THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
ORGANIZED STORMS/POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL MAINTAIN THREAT
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 44
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CST THU MAR 13 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL 800
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 41...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 42. WATCH NUMBER 41...42 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 310 PM
CST.
DISCUSSION...SE MS/AL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE COLD POOL.
GIVEN 30-35 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...DISTRIBUTION OF SBCAPE AND
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
...SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY ESE TOWARD THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
ORGANIZED STORMS/POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL MAINTAIN THREAT
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
59 reports so far:
Tornado Reports
Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1756 UNK CLAY COUNTY CLAY FL 2998 8185 FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR CLAY HILL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. REPORTED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. (JAX)
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1215 75 BAKERSVILLE ST JOHNS FL 2990 8148 REPORTED BY SKYWARN SPOTTER (JAX)
1245 88 ST AUGUSTINE ST JOHNS FL 2988 8131 REPORTED BY CONSTRUCTION CREW NEAR HIGHWAY 207 AND U.S. 1 (JAX)
1245 88 5 SW MAGEE SIMPSON MS 3180 8980 REPORTED BY PUBLIC (JAN)
1303 75 3 S ELLISVILLE JONES MS 3155 8920 REPORTED BY JONES COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
1305 75 BOSTON THOMAS GA 3078 8378 TIME ESTIMATED. RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (TLH)
1308 75 PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL 3025 8136 TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES. REPORTED BY UTILITY COMPANY. (JAX)
1315 75 VARNER LINCOLN AR 3403 9161 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1320 100 ARKANSAS COUNTY ARKANSAS AR 3425 9136 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1405 75 NEDERLAND JEFFERSON TX 2998 9398 (LCH)
1408 100 BEULAH BOLIVAR MS 3380 9100 REPORTED BY BOLIVAR COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
1432 100 DREW SUNFLOWER MS 3381 9053 QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SUNFLOWER CO CIVIL DEFENSE. ALSO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS. (JAN)
1515 75 GREENWOOD LEFLORE MS 3355 9026 PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 70 JUST NORTH OF GREENWOOD. REPORTED BY LEFLORE EMA. (JAN)
1532 88 3 S SUMRALL LAMAR MS 3136 8955 NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LAMAR COUNTY EOC. (JAN)
1535 75 BRIDGE CITY ORANGE TX 3001 9385 PUBLIC REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN BRIDGE CITY (LCH)
1539 88 WAYCROSS BRANTLEY GA 3121 8235 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED BY UTILITY COMPANY (JAX)
1545 75 MADISON MADISON MS 3246 9010 REPORTED BY POLICE. (JAN)
1548 75 GRAND LAKE CAMERON LA 3006 9328 DIME SIZE HAIL AROUND POONTOON BRIDGE (LCH)
1605 88 BELLEFONTAINE WEBSTER MS 3364 8931 REPORTED BY WEBSTER COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
1645 75 UTICA HINDS MS 3211 9061 DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN UTICA AND LEARNED. REPORTED BY HINDS EMA. (JAN)
1648 100 15 N GRAND CHENIER CAMERON LA 3001 9298 PARK OFFICIAL REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT LACASSINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE (LCH)
1715 175 JACKSONVILLE DUVAL FL 3034 8166 GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL ON TROUT RIVER AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT HIGHLANDS. REPORTED BY SKYWARN SPOTTER. (JAX)
1715 88 4 SW BROOKHAVEN LINCOLN MS 3153 9050 REPORTED BY LINCOLN COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
1716 88 RICHLAND RANKIN MS 3233 9000 REPORTED BY HAMM RADIO OPERATORS. (JAN)
1732 75 FLORENCE RANKIN MS 3215 9013 REPORTED BY HAMM RADIO OPERATOR. (JAN)
1745 100 DUVAL COUNTY DUVAL FL 3034 8171 QUARTER AND DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY GENERAL PUBLIC ON MYRTLE AVE. (JAX)
1800 175 JACKSONVILLE DUVAL FL 3034 8166 GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY BROADCAST MEDIA ON W. EDGEWOOD AVE, WABASH ST., DEASON ST., SUFFOLK AVE. (JAX)
1905 175 1 E DENHAM SPRINGS LIVINGSTON LA 3048 9093 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
2000 75 CRESCENT BEACH ST JOHNS FL 2976 8125 DIME SIZE HAIL COVERING ROAD ON U.S. 1 SOUTH OF CR 206. REPORTED BY SKYWARN SPOTTER (JAX)
2010 175 ST JOHNS COUNTY ST JOHNS FL 2996 8144 CARS DAMAGED BY GOLFBALL HAIL ON I-95 4N OF FLAGLER CO. LINE. REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (JAX)
2035 75 HAHNVILLE ST CHARLES LA 2995 9045 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (NEW)
2050 75 KENNER JEFFERSON LA 2998 9023 PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA. (NEW)
2120 75 PETERMAN MONROE AL 3158 8726 (MOB)
2135 88 5 N GULFPORT HARRISON MS 3046 8908 NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR INTERSECTION OF US HIGHWAY 49 AND INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 10. REPORTED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (NEW)
2150 175 LUVERNE CRENSHAW AL 3171 8626 (MOB)
2220 100 GOSHEN PIKE AL 3171 8611 QUARTER SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM PUBLIC. (BHM)
2225 88 BRUNDIDGE PIKE AL 3171 8581 MARBLE TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
2240 88 SARALAND MOBILE AL 3081 8806 (MOB)
2240 100 BAY MINETTE BALDWIN AL 3088 8778 (MOB)
2240 100 RED LEVEL COVINGTON AL 3140 8661 (MOB)
2319 100 BRACKETTVILLE KINNEY TX 2931 10041 (SAT)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1216 60 GLACIER COUNTY GLACIER MT 4865 11308 (TFX)
1255 UNK NOBLE LAKE JEFFERSON AR 3416 9186 LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. FEW SHEETS OF TIN BLOWN OFF A BUILDING. REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER (LIT)
1325 UNK DELUCE ARKANSAS AR 3419 9125 TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1430 UNK 5 E LAKELAND LANIER GA 3103 8298 SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (TLH)
1605 UNK BELLEFONTAINE WEBSTER MS 3364 8931 A FEW TREES DOWN. TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS. REPORTED BY WEBSTER COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
1615 UNK CHARLTON COUNTY CHARLTON GA 3080 8214 TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES ON HIGHWAY 121. REPORTED BY UTILITY COMPANY. (JAX)
1700 UNK 8 N ACKERMAN CHOCTAW MS 3344 8916 TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 15 NORTH OF TOWN. REPORTED BY CHOCTAW CD. (JAN)
1700 UNK POINT PETER CAMDEN GA 3400 8301 POWER AND TELEPHONE LINES DOWN. REPORTED BY ST. MARYS PD AND CAMDEN FIRE/RESCUE. (JAX)
1720 UNK COLUMBUS LOWNDES MS 3350 8843 2 TREES DOWN AND 1 POWER LINE DOWN. REPORTED BY LOWNDES 911. (JAN)
1722 UNK 14 W HAZLEHURST COPIAH MS 3186 9067 TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 28. REPORTED BY COPIAH SHERRIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
1750 UNK 3 W SUMMIT PIKE MS 3128 9052 TREES BLOWN DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED.REPORTED BY CIVIL DEFENSE (NEW)
1750 76 2 E EAST GLACIER PARK GLACIER MT 4841 11316 (TFX)
2050 UNK PRATTVILLE AUTAUGA AL 3246 8648 TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 31. POWERLINES DOWNED. REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
2100 UNK SAVANNAN PEARL RIVER MS 3073 8948 TREE BLOWN DOWN. REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
2115 UNK KILN HANCOCK MS 3041 8943 ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE. REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (NEW)
2115 UNK BUYCK ELMORE AL 3269 8626 TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 231. REPORT FROM AMATEUR RADIO. (BHM)
2145 UNK NOTASULGA MACON AL 3256 8566 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. REPORT FROM POLICE. (BHM)
2150 UNK DADEVILLE TALLAPOOSA AL 3283 8574 TREES DOWN. REPORT FROM COUNTY SHERIFF. (BHM)
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW BVE 35 WSW LUL 25 N MEI 15 ENE TCL 20 SW ANB 35 ENE CSG
55 ESE MCN 20 SE SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W BLI 15 SW PDX
20 NNW MFR 25 S RBL 25 W SCK 10 SSE MRY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GDP 25 W ROW
25 NNW TCC 45 NNE CAO 45 W GCK 15 N DDC 45 WSW P28 35 NW CSM
55 NNE BGS 45 SSW SJT 45 ENE DRT 25 E COT 15 SSE CRP.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM 35 SSW HEZ
50 E MLU 35 NE GWO 35 NE MSL 30 ESE CSV 35 E HSS 25 WSW SOP
35 S ILM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ASE 15 E ALS
35 NNE SAF 15 SSE GNT INW 55 W GCN 50 SSW P38 25 NNW U31 45 S BNO
55 ESE YKM 50 NE EPH 50 NW S06 15 ESE DLN 25 SSE BPI 10 NW ASE.
...SERN U.S./FL...
UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATX WILL SOON TURN EWD AND
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL AL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DOWNSTREAM...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE MAY NOT PROVE THAT
SIGNIFICANT DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK ADVECTION. IT APPEARS DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PLAY A STRONG ROLE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW AND ALONG THE FL PENINSULA DUE TO SEA BREEZE FORCING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE FL PENINSULA SUGGEST SEA BREEZE WILL
PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM IN THE 850-500MB
LAYER...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS SFC-BASE
INSTABILITY WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
3KM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FORECAST
INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY.
FARTHER NORTH...ITS NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR HOW STORM INITIATION OR
EVOLUTION WILL OCCUR...OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE. LATE EVENING MCS HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND
ONGOING CONVECTION AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY BE MINIMAL. FOR
THIS REASON IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE RATHER EARLY
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WHERE SUNSHINE CAN HEAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SUFFICIENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR
MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
...WEST TX...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WWD INTO WEST TX OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. STRONG SUNSHINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER AND DESTABILIZATION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TX.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE. FARTHER NORTH...LLJ SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW BVE 35 WSW LUL 25 N MEI 15 ENE TCL 20 SW ANB 35 ENE CSG
55 ESE MCN 20 SE SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W BLI 15 SW PDX
20 NNW MFR 25 S RBL 25 W SCK 10 SSE MRY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GDP 25 W ROW
25 NNW TCC 45 NNE CAO 45 W GCK 15 N DDC 45 WSW P28 35 NW CSM
55 NNE BGS 45 SSW SJT 45 ENE DRT 25 E COT 15 SSE CRP.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM 35 SSW HEZ
50 E MLU 35 NE GWO 35 NE MSL 30 ESE CSV 35 E HSS 25 WSW SOP
35 S ILM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ASE 15 E ALS
35 NNE SAF 15 SSE GNT INW 55 W GCN 50 SSW P38 25 NNW U31 45 S BNO
55 ESE YKM 50 NE EPH 50 NW S06 15 ESE DLN 25 SSE BPI 10 NW ASE.
...SERN U.S./FL...
UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATX WILL SOON TURN EWD AND
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL AL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DOWNSTREAM...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE MAY NOT PROVE THAT
SIGNIFICANT DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK ADVECTION. IT APPEARS DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PLAY A STRONG ROLE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW AND ALONG THE FL PENINSULA DUE TO SEA BREEZE FORCING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE FL PENINSULA SUGGEST SEA BREEZE WILL
PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM IN THE 850-500MB
LAYER...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS SFC-BASE
INSTABILITY WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
3KM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FORECAST
INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY.
FARTHER NORTH...ITS NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR HOW STORM INITIATION OR
EVOLUTION WILL OCCUR...OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE. LATE EVENING MCS HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND
ONGOING CONVECTION AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY BE MINIMAL. FOR
THIS REASON IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE RATHER EARLY
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WHERE SUNSHINE CAN HEAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SUFFICIENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR
MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
...WEST TX...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WWD INTO WEST TX OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. STRONG SUNSHINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER AND DESTABILIZATION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TX.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE. FARTHER NORTH...LLJ SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ESE BWD JCT 35 WSW SJT 40 NNE BGS 50 NE PVW 65 WSW GAG 35 S DDC
15 W P28 15 E END 40 E SPS 30 ESE BWD.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI
35 SE SRQ ...CONT... 25 SE TLH 40 WNW AYS 25 E CHS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF 25 NW FST
35 NNW BGS 25 SSW LBL 30 SE HLC 35 NNE CNK 20 WNW TOP 30 SW CNU
25 SSW MLC 15 ESE ACT 50 NW LRD.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW MOB 35 SW CBM
25 NNE MSL 40 E BNA 35 SE LOZ 15 SSW ROA 20 SSE ECG.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW EKA 20 N SAC
20 S NID 20 SW IPL.
COMPLEX FORECAST SATURDAY AS ATYPICAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN PERSISTS
OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED -16C
TO -18C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL LINGER OVER MS/AL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ANCHORED ABOVE THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER CA WEAKENING AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORT-
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN LOCATION AND STRENGTHS OF
THESE FEATURES.
...SOUTHEAST...
GFS...ETA...AND ETAKF ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION INVOF AND SOUTHEAST OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SATURDAY.
APPEARS SURFACE/WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS INTO NRN/CENTRAL GA/AL...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COMBINATION OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 TEMPS FROM -13C TO
-16C/ AND MODEST WINDS ALOFT NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
...SRN PLAINS...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
16/00Z NEAR DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN
OK WHERE TRIPLE POINT SHOULD DEVELOP. THOUGH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE QUESTIONABLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL TROUGH...IT APPEARS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN/NWRN TX BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG
HEATING WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE DRY LINE BY LATE IN THE DAY...THOUGH
MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED. MID LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /FROM 25-35 KT/ OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A FEW SUPERCELLS
OR SMALL LINES...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE
MID/LATE EVENING.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ESE BWD JCT 35 WSW SJT 40 NNE BGS 50 NE PVW 65 WSW GAG 35 S DDC
15 W P28 15 E END 40 E SPS 30 ESE BWD.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI
35 SE SRQ ...CONT... 25 SE TLH 40 WNW AYS 25 E CHS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF 25 NW FST
35 NNW BGS 25 SSW LBL 30 SE HLC 35 NNE CNK 20 WNW TOP 30 SW CNU
25 SSW MLC 15 ESE ACT 50 NW LRD.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW MOB 35 SW CBM
25 NNE MSL 40 E BNA 35 SE LOZ 15 SSW ROA 20 SSE ECG.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW EKA 20 N SAC
20 S NID 20 SW IPL.
COMPLEX FORECAST SATURDAY AS ATYPICAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN PERSISTS
OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED -16C
TO -18C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL LINGER OVER MS/AL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ANCHORED ABOVE THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER CA WEAKENING AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORT-
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN LOCATION AND STRENGTHS OF
THESE FEATURES.
...SOUTHEAST...
GFS...ETA...AND ETAKF ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION INVOF AND SOUTHEAST OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SATURDAY.
APPEARS SURFACE/WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS INTO NRN/CENTRAL GA/AL...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COMBINATION OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 TEMPS FROM -13C TO
-16C/ AND MODEST WINDS ALOFT NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
...SRN PLAINS...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
16/00Z NEAR DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN
OK WHERE TRIPLE POINT SHOULD DEVELOP. THOUGH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE QUESTIONABLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL TROUGH...IT APPEARS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN/NWRN TX BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG
HEATING WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE DRY LINE BY LATE IN THE DAY...THOUGH
MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED. MID LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /FROM 25-35 KT/ OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A FEW SUPERCELLS
OR SMALL LINES...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE
MID/LATE EVENING.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 161200-171200
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF
THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM WRN KS INTO WRN TX.
STRONG/ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND EXTEND
INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THIS REGION. THE MOST
PROMINENT OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ETA
AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF ADVANCING MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM FAR WRN KS INTO
WRN TX AS PRESSURE FALLS OVERSPREAD THE SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
FORECASTS OF SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINS LOW THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...
WITH ETA/GFS LIKELY OVERMIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND POSSIBLY
UNDERFORECASTING SURFACE DEW POINTS JUST EAST OF DRY LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER SRN
TX ATTM...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PRIOR TO SUNDAY...SUGGESTS AXIS OF 60+F
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS WRN/CENTRAL
KS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CAPPING SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS 8+ C/KM LAPSE RATES OVERSPREAD THE MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDINESS LIMITS AFTERNOON HEATING.
HOWEVER AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP CONVERGENCE INCREASE TOWARDS
00Z...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND SHIFT EWD GIVEN STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
INSTABILITY.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 161200-171200
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF
THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM WRN KS INTO WRN TX.
STRONG/ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND EXTEND
INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THIS REGION. THE MOST
PROMINENT OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ETA
AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF ADVANCING MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM FAR WRN KS INTO
WRN TX AS PRESSURE FALLS OVERSPREAD THE SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
FORECASTS OF SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINS LOW THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...
WITH ETA/GFS LIKELY OVERMIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND POSSIBLY
UNDERFORECASTING SURFACE DEW POINTS JUST EAST OF DRY LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER SRN
TX ATTM...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PRIOR TO SUNDAY...SUGGESTS AXIS OF 60+F
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS WRN/CENTRAL
KS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CAPPING SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS 8+ C/KM LAPSE RATES OVERSPREAD THE MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDINESS LIMITS AFTERNOON HEATING.
HOWEVER AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP CONVERGENCE INCREASE TOWARDS
00Z...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND SHIFT EWD GIVEN STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
INSTABILITY.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
Tornado Reports
Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1756 UNK CLAY COUNTY CLAY FL 2998 8185 FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR CLAY HILL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. REPORTED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. (JAX)
Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1215 75 BAKERSVILLE ST JOHNS FL 2990 8148 REPORTED BY SKYWARN SPOTTER (JAX)
1245 88 ST AUGUSTINE ST JOHNS FL 2988 8131 REPORTED BY CONSTRUCTION CREW NEAR HIGHWAY 207 AND U.S. 1 (JAX)
1245 88 5 SW MAGEE SIMPSON MS 3180 8980 REPORTED BY PUBLIC (JAN)
1303 75 3 S ELLISVILLE JONES MS 3155 8920 REPORTED BY JONES COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
1305 75 BOSTON THOMAS GA 3078 8378 TIME ESTIMATED. RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (TLH)
1308 75 PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL 3025 8136 TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES. REPORTED BY UTILITY COMPANY. (JAX)
1315 75 VARNER LINCOLN AR 3403 9161 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1320 100 ARKANSAS COUNTY ARKANSAS AR 3425 9136 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1405 75 NEDERLAND JEFFERSON TX 2998 9398 (LCH)
1408 100 BEULAH BOLIVAR MS 3380 9100 REPORTED BY BOLIVAR COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
1432 100 DREW SUNFLOWER MS 3381 9053 QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SUNFLOWER CO CIVIL DEFENSE. ALSO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS. (JAN)
1515 75 GREENWOOD LEFLORE MS 3355 9026 PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 70 JUST NORTH OF GREENWOOD. REPORTED BY LEFLORE EMA. (JAN)
1532 88 3 S SUMRALL LAMAR MS 3136 8955 NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LAMAR COUNTY EOC. (JAN)
1535 75 BRIDGE CITY ORANGE TX 3001 9385 PUBLIC REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN BRIDGE CITY (LCH)
1539 88 WAYCROSS BRANTLEY GA 3121 8235 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED BY UTILITY COMPANY (JAX)
1545 75 MADISON MADISON MS 3246 9010 REPORTED BY POLICE. (JAN)
1548 75 GRAND LAKE CAMERON LA 3006 9328 DIME SIZE HAIL AROUND POONTOON BRIDGE (LCH)
1605 88 BELLEFONTAINE WEBSTER MS 3364 8931 REPORTED BY WEBSTER COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
1645 75 UTICA HINDS MS 3211 9061 DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN UTICA AND LEARNED. REPORTED BY HINDS EMA. (JAN)
1648 100 15 N GRAND CHENIER CAMERON LA 3001 9298 PARK OFFICIAL REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT LACASSINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE (LCH)
1715 175 JACKSONVILLE DUVAL FL 3034 8166 GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL ON TROUT RIVER AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT HIGHLANDS. REPORTED BY SKYWARN SPOTTER. (JAX)
1715 88 4 SW BROOKHAVEN LINCOLN MS 3153 9050 REPORTED BY LINCOLN COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
1716 88 RICHLAND RANKIN MS 3233 9000 REPORTED BY HAMM RADIO OPERATORS. (JAN)
1732 75 FLORENCE RANKIN MS 3215 9013 REPORTED BY HAMM RADIO OPERATOR. (JAN)
1745 100 DUVAL COUNTY DUVAL FL 3034 8171 QUARTER AND DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY GENERAL PUBLIC ON MYRTLE AVE. (JAX)
1800 175 JACKSONVILLE DUVAL FL 3034 8166 GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY BROADCAST MEDIA ON W. EDGEWOOD AVE, WABASH ST., DEASON ST., SUFFOLK AVE. (JAX)
1905 175 1 E DENHAM SPRINGS LIVINGSTON LA 3048 9093 REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
2000 75 CRESCENT BEACH ST JOHNS FL 2976 8125 DIME SIZE HAIL COVERING ROAD ON U.S. 1 SOUTH OF CR 206. REPORTED BY SKYWARN SPOTTER (JAX)
2010 175 ST JOHNS COUNTY ST JOHNS FL 2996 8144 CARS DAMAGED BY GOLFBALL HAIL ON I-95 4N OF FLAGLER CO. LINE. REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (JAX)
2035 75 HAHNVILLE ST CHARLES LA 2995 9045 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (NEW)
2050 75 KENNER JEFFERSON LA 2998 9023 PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA. (NEW)
2120 75 PETERMAN MONROE AL 3158 8726 (MOB)
2135 88 5 N GULFPORT HARRISON MS 3046 8908 NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR INTERSECTION OF US HIGHWAY 49 AND INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 10. REPORTED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (NEW)
2150 175 LUVERNE CRENSHAW AL 3171 8626 (MOB)
2209 75 MAGNOLIA MONTGOMERY TX 3033 9546 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
2220 100 GOSHEN PIKE AL 3171 8611 QUARTER SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM PUBLIC. (BHM)
2225 88 BRUNDIDGE PIKE AL 3171 8581 MARBLE TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
2240 88 SARALAND MOBILE AL 3081 8806 (MOB)
2240 100 BAY MINETTE BALDWIN AL 3088 8778 (MOB)
2240 100 RED LEVEL COVINGTON AL 3140 8661 (MOB)
2256 75 8 SW CONROE MONTGOMERY TX 3022 9555 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
2319 100 BRACKETTVILLE KINNEY TX 2931 10041 (SAT)
2352 100 JUPITER PALM BEACH FL 2693 8010 (MIA)
2355 175 N PALM BEACH PALM BEACH FL 2671 8003 (MIA)
0000 88 JUPITER PALM BEACH FL 2693 8010 (MIA)
0000 75 BROOKSHIRE WALLER TX 2981 9593 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (HOU)
0000 88 DAWSON TERRELL GA 3176 8445 RELAYED BY STATE WARNING POINT. (TLH)
0030 75 2 E SEALY AUSTIN TX 2978 9611 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
0120 75 SIMONTON FORT BEND TX 2970 9596 REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER. (HOU)
0130 175 WHARTON WHARTON TX 2931 9610 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
0145 100 WHARTON WHARTON TX 2931 9610 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (HOU)
0240 75 2 W MARKHAM MATAGORDA TX 2894 9610 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
0300 175 MIDFIELD MATAGORDA TX 2893 9620 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (HOU)
0325 175 5 SE BLESSING MATAGORDA TX 2880 9614 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
0354 175 LA WARD JACKSON TX 2883 9646 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1255 UNK NOBLE LAKE JEFFERSON AR 3416 9186 LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. FEW SHEETS OF TIN BLOWN OFF A BUILDING. REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER (LIT)
1325 UNK DELUCE ARKANSAS AR 3419 9125 TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (LIT)
1430 UNK 5 E LAKELAND LANIER GA 3103 8298 SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (TLH)
1605 UNK BELLEFONTAINE WEBSTER MS 3364 8931 A FEW TREES DOWN. TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS. REPORTED BY WEBSTER COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
1615 UNK CHARLTON COUNTY CHARLTON GA 3080 8214 TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES ON HIGHWAY 121. REPORTED BY UTILITY COMPANY. (JAX)
1700 UNK 8 N ACKERMAN CHOCTAW MS 3344 8916 TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 15 NORTH OF TOWN. REPORTED BY CHOCTAW CD. (JAN)
1700 UNK POINT PETER CAMDEN GA 3400 8301 POWER AND TELEPHONE LINES DOWN. REPORTED BY ST. MARYS PD AND CAMDEN FIRE/RESCUE. (JAX)
1720 UNK COLUMBUS LOWNDES MS 3350 8843 2 TREES DOWN AND 1 POWER LINE DOWN. REPORTED BY LOWNDES 911. (JAN)
1722 UNK 14 W HAZLEHURST COPIAH MS 3186 9067 TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 28. REPORTED BY COPIAH SHERRIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
1750 UNK 3 W SUMMIT PIKE MS 3128 9052 TREES BLOWN DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED.REPORTED BY CIVIL DEFENSE (NEW)
2050 UNK PRATTVILLE AUTAUGA AL 3246 8648 TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 31. POWERLINES DOWNED. REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
2100 UNK SAVANNAN PEARL RIVER MS 3073 8948 TREE BLOWN DOWN. REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT (NEW)
2115 UNK KILN HANCOCK MS 3041 8943 ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE. REPORTED BY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (NEW)
2115 UNK BUYCK ELMORE AL 3269 8626 TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 231. REPORT FROM AMATEUR RADIO. (BHM)
2145 UNK NOTASULGA MACON AL 3256 8566 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. REPORT FROM POLICE. (BHM)
2150 UNK DADEVILLE TALLAPOOSA AL 3283 8574 TREES DOWN. REPORT FROM COUNTY SHERIFF. (BHM)
2305 UNK COLUMBUS MUSCOGEE GA 3248 8496 MOBILE HOME DAMAGED. REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC. (ATL)
2330 60 CHATHAM PITTSYLVANIA VA 3681 7939 A FEW TREES DOWN.REPORTED BY PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY 911. (RNK)
2334 UNK COLUMBUS MUSCOGEE GA 3248 8496 A FEW TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY MUSCOGEE COUNTY 911. (ATL)
2335 UNK PRESTON WEBSTER GA 3206 8453 SEVERAL TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY WEBSTER COUNTY 911. (ATL)
2345 60 JUPITER PALM BEACH FL 2693 8010 (MIA)
0000 60 JUPITER PALM BEACH FL 2693 8010 (MIA)
0100 58 15 NW EUREKA HUMBOLDT CA 4097 12440 PEAK GUST BUOY 46022 (EKA)
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Rob-TheStormChaser
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 AM EST FRI MAR 14 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
IN OHIO...
COSHOCTON
THIS FLOOD WARNING IS EXTENDED UNTIL 1000 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MUSKINGUM RIVER AT COSHOCTON IS ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 13
FEET. THE CURRENT STAGE IS 13.4 FEET AND SLOWLY FALLING.
EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER
LEVELS MAY BE DEEPER THAN EXPECTED.
THIS FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING,
AND MAY BE EXTENDED AT THAT TIME.
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 AM EST FRI MAR 14 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
IN OHIO...
COSHOCTON
THIS FLOOD WARNING IS EXTENDED UNTIL 1000 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MUSKINGUM RIVER AT COSHOCTON IS ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 13
FEET. THE CURRENT STAGE IS 13.4 FEET AND SLOWLY FALLING.
EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER
LEVELS MAY BE DEEPER THAN EXPECTED.
THIS FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING,
AND MAY BE EXTENDED AT THAT TIME.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL / FL PNHDL / SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 141758Z - 142000Z
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW S OF MOB BAY WITH AN
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDING FROM N
OF PNS TO MAI TO N OF JAX. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOW
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING NE OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE WRN FL PNHDL
INTO SRN AL. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...STRONG INSOLATION AND STEEP-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SRN MS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500
J/KG.
CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING FORCING
FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL LOW...SHOULD ALLOW
TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...STRENGTHENING
FLOW ABOVE 6 KM AGL SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED ORGANIZED
TSTMS. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION --IE -16 TO -17 C AT 500 MB-- WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY
A HAIL THREAT. WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL / FL PNHDL / SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 141758Z - 142000Z
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW S OF MOB BAY WITH AN
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDING FROM N
OF PNS TO MAI TO N OF JAX. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOW
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING NE OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE WRN FL PNHDL
INTO SRN AL. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...STRONG INSOLATION AND STEEP-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SRN MS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500
J/KG.
CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING FORCING
FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL LOW...SHOULD ALLOW
TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...STRENGTHENING
FLOW ABOVE 6 KM AGL SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED ORGANIZED
TSTMS. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION --IE -16 TO -17 C AT 500 MB-- WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY
A HAIL THREAT. WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.
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ColdFront77
Isolate severe thunderstorms are possible across central Florida this afternoon, especially after 4:00 PM EST. As of late this morning and this early afternoon a Severe Weather Watch Box is not anticipated. We shall see.
The chances for showers and thunderstorms for my area has increased for this afternoon and evening and even higher later tonight and overnight and higher still up to 70% to 80% from the central Florida counties to Marion county tomorrow.
The chances for showers and thunderstorms for my area has increased for this afternoon and evening and even higher later tonight and overnight and higher still up to 70% to 80% from the central Florida counties to Marion county tomorrow.
0 likes
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Rob-TheStormChaser
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC031-061-142245-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COFFEE COUNTY IN ALABAMA
GENEVA COUNTY IN ALABAMA
* UNTIL 445 PM CST
* AT 405 PM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL 5 MILES NORTH OF GANER...OR
ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OPP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SAMSON...KINSTON BY 410 PM CST...
ALBERTON BY 415 PM CST...
SELLERSVILLE...INO BY 420 PM CST...
FAIRVIEW BY 425 PM CST...
GOODMAN...COFFEE SPRINGS BY 430 PM CST...
CENTRAL CITY...CHANCELLOR BY 440 PM CST...
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS LARGE HAIL...WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ALC031-061-142245-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COFFEE COUNTY IN ALABAMA
GENEVA COUNTY IN ALABAMA
* UNTIL 445 PM CST
* AT 405 PM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL 5 MILES NORTH OF GANER...OR
ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OPP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SAMSON...KINSTON BY 410 PM CST...
ALBERTON BY 415 PM CST...
SELLERSVILLE...INO BY 420 PM CST...
FAIRVIEW BY 425 PM CST...
GOODMAN...COFFEE SPRINGS BY 430 PM CST...
CENTRAL CITY...CHANCELLOR BY 440 PM CST...
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS LARGE HAIL...WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 46
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.
HAIL TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DOTHAN ALABAMA.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK
NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SE AL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S WITH NEAR 60 DEW POINTS ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1500 J/KG...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM THE GULF CONVECTION. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 1/2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 46
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.
HAIL TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DOTHAN ALABAMA.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK
NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SE AL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S WITH NEAR 60 DEW POINTS ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1500 J/KG...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM THE GULF CONVECTION. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 1/2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC039-142300-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
* UNTIL 500 PM CST
* AT 435 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF OPP...MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
EODA BY 440 PM CST
STRONG DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM. IF IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER IN A STURDY
SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
ALC039-142300-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
* UNTIL 500 PM CST
* AT 435 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF OPP...MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
EODA BY 440 PM CST
STRONG DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM. IF IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER IN A STURDY
SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
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