Post here your number of named storms,canes and major canes

[cycloneye]

Here is the list of the members numbers so far:

Cycloneye=13/8/3
Chadtm80=15/6/3 (Preliminary numbers)
Lindaloo=14/7/3
Stormsfury=13/7/3 (Preliminary numbers)
therock1811=15/6/2
king of weather=14/8/3 (Preliminary numbers)
vbhoutex=14/7/4 (Preliminary numbers)
ColdFront77=14/7/3
MGC=12/7/2
senorpepr=15/7/3
mf_dolphin=14/8/3
vacanechaser=15/8/4
Rainband=16/6/4
coriolis=16/7/4
MIA_canetrakker=12/7/3
Typhoon Willie=15/8/3
Jekyhe32210=13/6/2
HurricaneHink=14/9/4
Josephine96=15/7/4

[ColdFront77]

14/7/3 (not sure if they should be prelimenary or not)

[Rainband]

I will have mine later.

[MGC]

MY numbers......12/7/2.......MGC

[wxman57]

Here's my analysis:

1. Neutral conditions in the Pacific means El Nino/La Nina will be a non-issue this season.

2. Atlantic SSTs will continue above normal

3. Since 1995, the NAO has been negative a lot more than it has been positive. A negative NAO means the lower pressure off the east U.S. coast and a weakened Bermuda high across the tropical Atlantic. This lowers pressures in the deep tropics and contributes to a greater chance of TS development

4. The QBO remains in a "favorable" westerly phase, but just barely for 2004. By 2005 it should switch back to an unfavorable easterly phase.

5. The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) has recently shifted to the cool "negative phase", similar to the period from 1947-1977. While this factor may not affect TC numbers in the Atlantic, it could have an effect on the upper-air patterns that steer developing storms.

Now I don't see much point in guessing at numbers, except just for the fun of it. And when the NHC begins naming tropical waves like Grace last year, the numbers mean even less.

But all long-range indicators would point to another active season. We could see anywhere from 11-12 to 16-17 storms, depending upon the timing of the movement of each disturbance across the Atlantic - whether it encounters a pocket of shear or not.

I like to focus on the weather patterns, and not a number, and the patterns are telling me that there is a high probability that there may be 3-4 major hurricanes this season, and that there is also a very good chance that Florida or the southeast U.S. will be hit by one this year. I said that last year, and it's just as true this season. The southeast U.S. got VERY VERY lucky agin in 2003. Isabel could well have been a Cat 4 storm when it hit, and had Fabian's timing been just a little different, it could have hit the southeast U.S. as a major hurricane as well.

The U.S. has seen only 3 major hurricane hits of 32 major hurricane since 1995 when climo would suggest 10 major landfalls. Our luck has to be running out, and I think it's this year.

[vbhoutex]

Sorry about bringing up a current issue in this forum.

I suppose I should ask my question: Where are the predictions above coming from, I don't see them posted anywhere in this forum.

If I am understanding your question Tom, mine came from a very cursory analysis of the conditions expected this season and a little climatology. Mostly shooting from the hip with a somewhat educated guess after 48 years along the GOM coast.

When and if I can find time to do more analysis I will, but we are looking at a season somewhat similar to last years imo.

[senorpepr]

15/7/3

...with a handful of tropical depressions that will fall apart into open waves and annoy a bunch of us here in the forum...

[mf_dolphin]

I'll say 14-8-3

[ColdFront77]

14/7/3 (not sure if they should be prelimenary or not)

How do we know whether or not we should have prelimenary numbers or not?

[cycloneye]

Tom it is up to the members individually to have preliminary numbers early if they want to and after a few weeks they change their numbers to the ones that they say will be the ones they will stick to this hurricane season.

[vbhoutex]

14/7/3 (not sure if they should be prelimenary or not)

How do we know whether or not we should have prelimenary numbers or not?

That pretty much will be a personal decision based on the facts we use to come up with the numbers.

With mine they will remain preliminary until/if I have more time to put into researching some of the factors that could affect/change them. If I either do not have the time or do have the time and find nothing to change them then they will be declared "Final". If I do have the time to do enough research and find something I think will change them the I will and then call them final. Basically it is up to each person when they "finalize" their numbers, unless of course we are having a "contest" and then an end date needs to be decided on.

[ColdFront77]

Then why were my numbers taken without "preminary numbers" next to it like Chad, Mike, Harry and David?

[cycloneye]

Tom because you weren't sure that your numbers are preliminary ones or not.Those who have those words Preliminary numbers in the list haved said that the numbers are preliminary ones.

[vacanechaser]

well, i have done pretty well the past three years at this... lets see how good i do this year....

15 named

8 hurricanes

4 majors

we should all know a little more in a few weeks when bill gray updates on the conditions for the long range... but from what i have seen so far, i think those are pretty good right now...

[ColdFront77]

Tom because you weren't sure that your numbers are preliminary ones or not.Those who have those words Preliminary numbers in the list haved said that the numbers are preliminary ones.

I did not say I wasn't sure if my numbers were preliminary or not, I said I am not sure whether they should be preliminary numbers or not.

[Rainband]

16/6/4

[coriolis]

(flipping coin)

16/7/4

Hope I didn't duplicate anyone elses.

[cycloneye]

Here is the list of the members numbers so far:

Cycloneye=13/8/3
Chadtm80=15/6/3 (Preliminary numbers)
Lindaloo=14/7/3
Stormsfury=13/7/3 (Preliminary numbers)
therock1811=15/6/2
king of weather=14/8/3 (Preliminary numbers)
vbhoutex=14/7/4 (Preliminary numbers)
ColdFront77=14/7/3
MGC=12/7/2
senorpepr=15/7/3
mf_dolphin=14/8/3
vacanechaser=15/8/4
Rainband=16/6/4
coriolis=16/7/4

Well so far all the members that had their numbers in the list are going with an active season.Those who haved not participated yet come and throw your hat about how do you think the season will pan out and dont worrie if you are a non-expert because everyone can participate.

[ColdFront77]

Tom because you weren't sure that your numbers are preliminary ones or not.Those who have those words Preliminary numbers in the list haved said that the numbers are preliminary ones.

I did not say I wasn't sure if my numbers were preliminary or not, I said I am not sure whether they should be preliminary numbers or not.

I suppose my numbers are have to remain final?

[mf_dolphin]

Tom, anyone can change their numbers before the season starts.