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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0414 AM CST TUE MAR 16 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN OH THROUGH WRN PA AND SW NY
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 161014Z - 161515Z
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OH WITH HEAVIEST SNOWS EXPANDING INTO WRN/CNTRL PA
AND EXTREME SW NY BY MID MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. SNOW MAY CHANCE TO OR
MIX WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN FROM PARTS OF SE OH INTO SRN
PA.
UPPER JET OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE ERN OH
VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES. WITHIN THE COUPLED JETS... STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL
MOTION AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION RATES...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN OH
THROUGH WRN/CNTRL PA INTO SW NY THROUGH THE MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL OCCUR ACROSS OH EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS WRN PA INTO SWRN
NY MID TO LATE MORNING. WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN A WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SUBFREEZING LAYER
ACROSS PARTS OF SE OH INTO SRN PA. SNOW IN THESE AREAS MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
..DIAL.. 03/16/2004
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
