Major Late-Season Arctic Blast?

[Anonymous]

The ECMWF has been consistent for a few runs now in showing a major discharge of very cold air into the East late this weekend into the beginning of next week. Looking at today's 12z run, the cold air is very impressive for the second half of March, much to the dismay of those hoping for a return to Spring conditions (like myself!).

Going with today's Euro, we will start off the weekend Saturday morning with a trough going negatively tilted offshore and a significant area of low pressure well east of the southern New England coast. As this heads off to the northeast and becomes the Canadian Maritimes' problem, a new trough begins to move in from the northwest, and a 1043mb high parks itself over the northern Plains and upper Midwest Sunday into Monday.

By Monday morning, the 850mb 0C isotherm has made its way south to an arc from S MO to N GA and off the SC coast, with the -10C line intruding all the way down to the VA/NC state border. Needless to say, this would probably yield well below-average temperatures across a lot of the Midwest, East Coast, and parts of Dixie.

Here are some 850mb temperatures and 1000-500mb thicknesses valid Day 6 (Mon 12z):
Detroit: -16.7C / 508dm
Buffalo: -16.6C / 508dm
New York: -14.6C / 512dm
Pittsburgh: -15.9C / 510dm
Dulles Airport: -13.8C / 518dm
Raleigh-Durham: -8.2C / 534dm
Nashville: -6.3C / 535dm
Atlanta: -0.8C / 544dm
Tupelo: 0.4C / 544dm

Day 6 SLP/Thick:


Day 6 850mb:


Fortunately (for those who are sick of winter), the trough appears to move out relatively quickly and allow for a nearly zonal flow by Day 10.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Great Analysis, Brett! As For Day 10, Who Knows.....

[Anonymous]

The 00z Wed run has backed off a little, but still nothing to sneeze at. 1000-500mb thicknesses forecast down to 516dm here at IAD for 00z Tuesday. Lows upper teens to 20's perhaps? Time will tell...

[BritBob]

I just just commenting over on my forum about this cold plunge for the east early next week. Looks ominous doesn`t it

The GFS seems in agreement with it too.

[Anonymous]

The 12z Wed run is continuing with a similar look... could be quite an arctic outbreak if it comes to fruition. I'm thinking 850's below -10C and thicknesses under 520dm are pretty cold even for January here, but late March?!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Oh My Lord! 1982 All over again!

[BritBob]

Personally I`m glad that at this stage it looks to be a brief cold spell.

Late next week looks like turning into a real spring event, with a large ridge over the eastern seaboard feeding mild south westerlies up into the maritimes. Good chance for some late march sunshine to eat away at this snowpack.

There`s still some impressive cold air up toward the Yukon and pushing down into the northern Prairies.